My Ph.d. Macro reading list

“Overall I am struck by how much the field is boiling down to common sense and a few key policy issues…”

Wow,

All we did in grad school was read Romer, Farmer and Sargent textbooks until we were blue in the face. Neither I nor most of my colleagues had (or presently have) a clue what macroeconomics is really all about. I suspect many other graduates of similar programs would say the same thing. It looks like the GMU students are in for a good course. Unfortunately it’s too late for me to learn.

-Mike

Don’t people love free lunch?

I just took Phd macro this past spring. We had a long reading list, but the course grade depended solely on cranking through analytical problems. Will your incentive scheme be different Tyler?

p.s. How many of my readings did I actually read?

I always hated macro because the Keynesian stuff just seemed like castles in the air and the new classical stuff had all the things I didn’t like about GE theory.

That said, you might want your students to know about sunspot equilibria and coordination theories of the business cycle. And Mortensen’s labor search models cast a really different perspective on unemployement and macro policy.

Can someone tell this curious reader how quant-heavy this class appears to be?

Also, Tyler, why not go the MIT Open Course route, and publish your lecture notes on the web?

Surprised not to see Barro-Gordon 1983 on this list. Something to balance Posen. Or find a good survey on CBI. International econ: A fear of floating paper would help. And I’ll second Kling’s recommendation of Fischer’s hyperinflation survey.

Hope you’ll blog the course — I miss teaching this.

Tom,

Keynes essentially assumes “rational expectations” in the short run – in the sense that he assumes entrepreneurs guess right about the market demand for their product in the current production period. They do not systematically have expectations that are falsified. Keynes does this to explain the mechanics of the model without overcomplicating the discussion of equilibrium.

However – Keynes is at pain to stress that in reality, when it comes to investment spending, forming expectations is very tricky, as the profitability of investment depend on myriad factors. At that points Keynes starts to stress the difficulty of forming reasonable expectations about the long run. And animal spirits come into play.

Keynes is not being inconsistent.

He is simply talking about two different things.

Keynes’s technical analysis,as he stated in chapters 2 and 3 of the GT,is contained in chapters 19(appendix to chapter 19),20(plus the elasticity result at the bottom of p.116) and 21.Keynes’s results are in the form of elasticities.Any mathematically competent reader of the GT need only simplify the elasticity results and compare those results with the simplified results presented by Pigou in 1933, on pp.86-102,Part II,chapters 8-10 of his The Theory of Unemployment.Pigou’s special aggregated,macroscopic result is that Full employment occurs if w/p=mpl,where w = the money wage,p= the price level,w/p is the real wage,and mpl is the macroscopic marginal product of labor derived from an aggregated,neoclassical production function.Keynes’s generalized result is that Full employment(defined to exist if there is only frictional/voluntary unemployment) is one possible outcome in a set of stable multiple equilibria given by the optimality condition w/p=mpl/(mpc+mpi),where mpc is the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods and mpi is the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods.Only in the special case where mpc+mpi=1 will the equilibrium be a full employment equilibrium.If mpc=mpi<1,involuntary unemployment automatically occurs.Labor,AS A WHOLE,will not be able to cut its money wage to reduce this kind of unemployment.The condition that mpc+mpi =1 requires the economy to be operating on the boundaries of both the static(short run) and dynamic(long run) production possibilities frontiers.

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