In May an MR reader alleged that the graph on Barry Nalebuff's tea (NB: Nalebuff is both an economist and entrepreneur) involved an elementary economics mistake. Nalebuff asked if I would publish his response:
I'm afraid Randy Goldstein would have trouble our freshman economics course at Yale where the Honest Tea label has become an assignment problem. It is true that we at Honest Tea don't put in sugar to maximize taste even by our own standards. That's because the peak of the taste profile is flat -- like most maxima. Cutting back the sugar costs you very little in flavor but still save you a whole lot of calories. In technical terms, it is a second-order loss of flavor but a first-order savings in calories. We like to think that we maximize the flavor-calorie tradeoff, which is not the same thing as maximizing flavor ignoring calories. To say this one more time. Each additional teaspoon of sugar adds 17 calories. But each additional teaspoon of sugar has a declining additional benefit in terms of taste. We stop before the incremental value is zero (the maximum) and only add sugar where its value is worth the 17 calories.
See what you think: try Honest Tea for yourself: learn more at www.honesttea.com.
You can find the graph below. Comments are open...
Addendum: Brad DeLong offers commentary.
I personally am an absolute huge fan of Honest Tea, The stuff is amazing, and since I don’t drink soda is an awesome alternative.
I just wish I could find a store by me that carried all their flavors (and sold them at the Price Chopper rate of $1/bottle, but thats stretching it…)
What I don’t entirely understand, though, is this fascination with “teaspoons.” I would imagine each additional grain of sugar, technically, adds taste and caloric content. Now, grains would most likely be a far-too-specific factor to measure, but there are measurements smaller than a teaspoon, are there not? (I’m no chef – an ounce, maybe?)
Though the curve itself flattens out at the top, and an additional 17 calories might not be worth the additional 17 calories-worth of sugar… I see no automatic reason to ignore the possibility that an additional amount of sugar equal to 1 calorie (1/17th of a teaspoon, I presume?) might not still move closer to taste-maximizing, yet remain worth the extra calorie.
I second the point suggested by Konradz, that without giving evidence that the caloric cost outweighs the additional taste at that exact point, the graph is still open to criticism.
HonestTea is one great product… worlds better than Snapple.
Andrew – thanks for clearing that up. See my cooking knowledge and be amazed!
Of course, the game theoretic reason underlying HonestTea’s position on the calorie/sugar axis is that there are many competitors duking it out over the market positions farther to the right and almost none competing for the (granted, likely much smaller) subset of the market to the left. And as for sacrificing profit, I doubt there’s much sacrifice going on, since the organic and fair trade initiatives probably do more than their share of lifting when it comes to marketing to the targeted customers.
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