Here is the home page. This is just getting started, but I predict it won’t take off. The people who most care — shanty owners in the Caribbean — are unlikely to make bets or use the forecasts. Nor will people find this fun betting as they did the Michael Jackson trial. But I would be happy if you proved me wrong.
Thanks to Carrie Conko for the pointer. By the way, go back to Alex’s addendum to his flu post, in case you missed it.
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Wouldn’t the owner of a caribbean resort be interested too? I’m going to Puerto Rico next week, and they assured me that I could cancel my reservation if there was a hurricane.
Actually, I think this is pretty new. The market is not trying to predict the likelihood of hurricanes in a given season or their magnitude. It’s just trying to predict where, exactly, a given hurricane will make landfall. It might be possible to reverse-engineer that data from Lloyd’s prices (I don’t know), but wouldn’t that be a relatively messy task? And it’ll be interesting to see if this group is able to do a better job than, say, the NWS at predicting where the hurricane actually hits.
The other thing to note is that right now this market is invitation-only, and that only meteorologists and other weather experts are participating. (I think they may open it to the public later.)
Flood insurance in the US is heavily politicized. Insurance companies
are forbidden to go out of business in many areas of the United States
for that reason.
Hurricane Futures is not an insurer or reinsurer, even though it has attracted interest from people wishing to hedge their exposures. We have turned them away because our design is to have traders predict where a storm will land rather than where they don’t want it to.
The reinsurance data mentioned, carefully collected and tortured, would talk. But it would answer a different question than the sort we are interested in, namely, where people think a given hurricane will strike. Analyzing reinsurance data can tell us about expected damages, but that would have to be combined with vulnerability information (e.g., geography, tides, population, infrastructure, etc.) to tease out landfall probablities, and even then it wouldn’t offer that in real time. So, it would be a bit messy, and having another, more direct way of looking at the question is helpful. Just because catastrophy derivatives are not widely used doesn’t mean we can’t learn from them.
Thank you for your interest in Hurricane Futures.
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