Can New Orleans take some small comfort in history?
Their [David Weinstein and Donald Davis] conclusions are based on a study of population growth in Japanese cities that suffered through earthquakes in 1923 and 1995 and bombing during World War II. Following these catastrophes, many Japanese cities suffered greater population and building losses than did New York on September 11. Yet, these cities rebounded not only to where they had been before the attacks, but actually saw their populations rise to levels that one would have predicted based on their prewar size and growth rates. Not only was there no discernable impact from bombing on city size 20 years after the end of the war, recovery from earthquakes seems, if anything, faster. Following the 1923 earthquake in Tokyo and the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, both cities recovered their pre-quake populations within five years.
Paul Krugman summarized this research. Here is the paper. Here is Davis’s home page, with related papers.
My doubts: Postwar Japan offered healthier institutions than what came before, so the motives for rebuilding cities were obvious. Plus much of Japan was destroyed, so there was less reason to reallocate resources elsewhere in the country. Post-1995 Kobe is the more relevant case for optimism, or try post-1905 San Francisco. But New Orleans has, for a long time, had subpar urban government compared to the rest of the United States. And the city has been declining in relative status for 150 years. If we are starting urban decisions over again from scratch, why reinvest in a lower quality legal environment? And did Johnstown ever recover its previous position, after its flood? Will New Orleans see recurrent flooding, as did Johnstown? What ever happened to Pompeii?
Here is a short essay on the natural geography of New Orleans. Will the new city simply be support services for nearby oil and natural gas, or will the residents and tourists return in their previous numbers? Will the unique position of its Mississippi port guarantee its future? Or will the destruction of the Garden District herald the beginning of the end?
Addendum: Here is a Wall Street Journal article on said topic.
Forgive me for commenting after only skimming the paper, but I worry that Japan is not a good example of how cities bounce back. Footnote 14 considers this in terms of geography, but I would think that Japan’s culture and history would be larger factors. That is, they are used to rebuilding destroyed cities (or city districts) because it used to happen so often. Japan is a country with tsunamis and earthquakes, and dense housing patterns have always led to problems with fire. Americans firebombed Japan precisely because the cities were so prone to burning to the ground. “The Flowers of Edo” have burned down Tokyo a few times, and if I recall correctly Tokyo gets an earthquake of city-leveling magnitude every sixty years or so; they are twenty years overdue at present, since the last major earthquake was in 1923. The phrase I remember from that time was that if a shop was not re-opened within three days, it would never re-open. Re-building started before the last fires were out.
Perhaps the paper accounts for this upon a closer reading; this is purely a from-the-hip gut reaction. I just compare our response to the World Trade Center (four years later and aren’t we still/again arguing over architects and blueprints?) with theirs to repeated devastation of Tokyo (“A clean slate for new zoning laws!”).
One quick comment – according to news reports, it appears that the historic Garden District has avoided the worst of the flooding and is in relatively decent shape.
New Orleans does not have a future as a Mississippi River port.
The Mississippi river wants to take a new route to the sea down the Atchalafya River that would bypass both Baton Rouge and NoLa.
Starting in the 50′s the Corps began builing the Old River Control Structure about 45 river miles north of BR to prevent this from happening. But the Atch still recives 30% of the Mississippi’s flow.
Even the Corps admits that this cannot last. The River will abandon its current course, and salt water infiltrationa nd increased subsidence will quickly render BR & NoLa uninhabitable.
i think with each passing hour as we realize the damage and destruction that Katrina has done to New Orleans and the overall stupidity of bre-building a city that is dependent upon levees on 90% of its perimiter the idea of rebuilding new orleans (at least on its present site) will lose support. There are no jobs and no houses in new orleans now. Why would someone want to rebuild their home there if there is the possibility that their job will not return there as well? Id venture to say that the populations of Atlanta, Memphis, and several cities in Florida will grow dramatically over the next few weeks/months.
“Most of the Netherlands _is_ below sea-level, & largish chunks are reclaimed land. It has been regularly battered for centuries by winter storms off the North Sea (not a nice place.) Why don’t the dykes fail?”
They do from time to time. The last time was about 50 years ago, after which they invested enormous sums in upgrading the dykes.
New Orleans should not be rebuilt in toto where it was. The historic and tourist areas should be leased out to Disney (or someone like them) and be turned into a theme park and tourist attraction.
The rebuilt city could include housing for the people who work there and second homes and condos. It could even include housing for some eccentrics and color types. It might have a permanent population of 100,000. It would be built behind new reinforced levies with more safety features.
All industry and commerce would be moved away.
The main flow of the Mississippi sould be re routed (as Joe Bleau pointed out above) from the junction with the Red River down the Atchafalaya River into the Gulf. Petrochemical industries and shipping should be relocated to there or other suitable locations on the Gulf.
Service business such as banks, insurance companies, major medical centers should be relocated to Baton Rouge or other locations.
Major educational institutions such as Tulane and UNO should be relocated to safer locations.
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Bon marche de Dofus Kamas.achat de dofus.le prix moins cher.nous vendons dofus,or de Wakfu. 24/7 appui-en-ligne et livraison rapide.Wakfu Kamas
china: chinaserving
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