"As tragic as it is for New Orleans, it is a boon for Houston." True? Are "broken windows" good for Houston? I tally the following gains and losses:
Gains:
1. Sellers with price greater than marginal cost will receive more profits. Here is one story on the Houston business boom.
2. Some disaster relief money will flow to the city.
3. Business relocation will sustain the urban real estate market.
4. Some new talent will seek to agglomerate in Houston rather than New Orleans.
5. Short-term nominal demand in Houston will rise, although this could be either a benefit or cost.
Losses:
1. Local taxes will rise to pay for shelters and the like.
2. Hotels, sports stadiums, and other public facilities will experience crowding.
3. Refugee issues will move to center stage; this will command political attention and perhaps creative divisiveness, hindering potential improvements.
Two historical examples: The fall of the Berlin Wall brought a temporary boom to West Germany but overall has not proved an economic blessing for the West. The initial demand shock was positive, but the new assets and resources did not prove complementary to the old. Second, the Mariel Boatlift dumped many Cuban refugees into Florida but wages and employment did not suffer. That suggests that the Houston poor will not suffer much from new competition.
I usually see economies of agglomeration as outweighing costs of congestion; I am even a fan of 20 million-plus population mega-cities, such as Sao Paulo or Mexico City. But as the German example shows, complementarity is key. You gain by working or living next to other people, but the spatial concentration of talent and assets should be guided by market prices and the pieces must be fitted together gradually, with some trial and error reshuffling.
The bottom line? Both the costs and benefits of resettlement will be overstated by partisans. The Houston boom won’t last long, and the costs will net out to put the city in a roughly break-even position.
The tax dollars spent on this are likely to be less than you think. Use of the Astrodome, at least, does not involve even any opportunity cost. I laughed when they said they’d “cleared the schedule” through December. That sure didn’t take long! As for the other centers that DO have scheduled events, the impact is likely to be small. Reportedly the population in all city owned shelters dropped from 25k+ to 8k+ already, due to (1) an effort to distribute the refugees more widely to other cities and states; (2) inviduals already finding accomodation on their own, through family, private charity, or new job/apartment; and (3) many received a two week paid stay in a hotel after being processed. (I THINK the feds paid for this, or Houston is being MUCH more generous than anyone knows.)
(1) represents a permanent reduction in the potential growth of Houston, (2) represents semi-permanent settlement not at the cost of the city, and (3) is a temporary boost to hotel revenues and city taxes that will smooth the local impact of assimilating these people.
Beyond these shelter concerns, I do not believe the city is spending significant amounts on food and clothing – private charities are carrying the load here. The biggest increased expense for local government is undoubtedly the costs of the evacuation (buses, gas, drivers’ salary if their time was not purely volunteered) and police overtime to control the crowds. It wouldn’t surprise me if Houston experiences a Gulf War-like situation where it gets more in federal compensation than it actually spent.
What was the cost of human capital being held back by corruption and poor schools? ( In Texas, we pay our teachers. )
What if those same people move to a place with little corruption and much better schools?
Won’t these “productive assets” be put to better use now that they are in a much better environment where things are managed much better?
Now that Houston went from 79% occupancy to 100%,won’t they build more? What is the cycle on development? 5-10 years? Won’t a lot of those new kids be graduating from High School and College about then?
Point-by-point comments here:
http://houstonstrategies.blogspot.com/2005/09/economic-gains-and-losses-in-houston.html
Another gain: don’t forget Houston has one of the largest ports in the country. A lot of shipping that formerly used New Orleans will use Houston instead. (I would especially expect crude oil to do so, since Houston has the infrastructure to handle it whereas Mobile and Pensacola probably don’t). As businesses adapt to using Houston instead of New Orleans, they’ll be less likely to move back. This fits with something Colby Cosh pointed out last week (http://www.colbycosh.com/#mbnn): after the Kobe earthquake in the mid-’90s, Kobe moved from #2 to #43 on the list of world ports ranked by cargo tonnage.
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