Countries around the world are stockpiling Tamiflu, in anticipation of a possible avian flu pandemic. This is better than doing nothing, but Tamiflu is unlikely to protect most of us, should a pandemic arrive. Here are a few reasons why:
1. Tamiflu must be taken within the first two days of symptoms. Your chance of getting some Tamiflu that quickly, in a pandemic, will not be great (of course you could buy some on your own).
2. Tamiflu, if taken preventively, can prevent you from getting sick in the first place. But you would need two tablets each day. Only essential medical personnel, and select politicians, are likely to receive such treatments.
3. You show up at the emergency room with avian flu, and then they have to decide where you stand on the priority list. Will the hospital fear a lawsuit? How long will this take? Will it require federal or regulatory clearance?
4. Given the crush of the infected, will you be afraid to show up at the emergency room in the first place? Maybe you just have the common cold. See point #1.
5. Many Tamiflu supplies will be exhausted on false alarms, such as colds and other flus.
6. A Tamiflu stockpile is only good for a few years. If avian flu does not come soon, do you expect the stockpile to be replenished? Or would avian flu become the new "swine flu", never to be uttered by politicians again? The avian flu threat will likely be with us for at least ten years, in the form of a bird "flu reservoir" for possible mutation.
7. There is some chance that the virus will develop Tamiflu immunity over time, especially if Tamiflu is applied indiscriminately at the early stages of a pandemic.
8. Let’s say the virus arrives first in California. Will Tamiflu supplies all be sent that way at first? Will they ever later be shipped back to Kansas? How much of the stockpile — an inevitable political football — will be available at any point in time?
Did I mention that the U.S. won’t be getting any more new Tamiflu for at least two years? Right now we only have 4.3 million courses.
Comments are open. Yes we should buy more Tamiflu, but we need to think harder about what else to do as well.
In the long run you get what you pray for. Pray that you don’t get sick. That your good neighbors pray so they don’t get sick. That your bad neighbors pray themselves from your life in way that doesn’t cause you any problems.
So, how does one go about getting a personal (or preferably a family)
stockpile? Would you offer any tips on storage devices for maintaining
proper temperature. Would you suggest pill or oral suspension form?
I think a wine refrigerator might be set for the proper temp (77 degrees F).
It might also be wise to keep some red wine on hand.
More helpful info:
http://www.thetravelinsider.info/2005/survivebirdflu.htm
Reservatrol data sheet:
http://www.medsafe.govt.nz/profs/Datasheet/discontinued/Relenzarotadisk.htm
I’m going to ask my mother in India to mail me a couple of packets once Cipla starts making the generic versions of Tamiflu. I don’t really expect to be using Tamiflu; but, should the need arise, I am convinced that the US will not be able to effectively distribute adequate quantities of the drug.
Yes we should buy more Tamiflu, but I am working on what else we should do as well.
Tyler,
Thank God you’re on the job! Easy with the super-hero complex.
More sick days would help. Or perhaps they’d be less likely to be abused if we called them Contagion Prevention days? Anyway, if people who work in positions where they have the potential to spread disease are able to take time off without losing much pay, they are less likely to turn up to work when they have a sniffle that could turn out to be avian flu.
A personal stockpile of Tamifu is quite expensive. There are a lot of people who are likely to increase their safety more by spending their money on bicycle helmets, nicotine patches, swimming pool fences, etc.
I’ve just realized that the more people who stockpile Tamiflu, the safer I am. Ignore what I said before. Everybody buy Tamiflu! And by the way, I have no idea how stable Tamiflu is, but I bet that out of date Tamiflu would be a lot better than no Tamiflu. Does anyone know if it’s a good idea to keep it in the freezer to try to prolong it’s shelf life?
Ken’s got the wrong idea! Making “drugs that might help with secondary infections” OTC means making antibiotics OTC which means quickly breeding immunity to those antibiotics in all sorts of bacteria. We don’t have an endless supply of different antibiotics. There are already some bugs that are immune to almost everything we have, more of this would be very bad and would kill far more people than some hypothetical future flu strain. Yes, big pharma sucks in many ways, but returning to the pre-antibiotic era isn’t an improvement.
Ken’s got the wrong idea! Making “drugs that might help with secondary infections” OTC means making antibiotics OTC which means quickly breeding immunity to those antibiotics in all sorts of bacteria. We don’t have an endless supply of different antibiotics. There are already some bugs that are immune to almost everything we have, more of this would be very bad and would kill far more people than some hypothetical future flu strain. Yes, big pharma sucks in many ways, but returning to the pre-antibiotic era isn’t an improvement.
Ken’s got the wrong idea! Making “drugs that might help with secondary infections” OTC means making antibiotics OTC which means quickly breeding immunity to those antibiotics in all sorts of bacteria. We don’t have an endless supply of different antibiotics. There are already some bugs that are immune to almost everything we have, more of this would be very bad and would kill far more people than some hypothetical future flu strain. Yes, big pharma sucks in many ways, but returning to the pre-antibiotic era isn’t an improvement.
One symptom is if you start clucking like a chicken! Pecking at the walls while flaping your arms is yet another. I know! I have it! Buck buck cluck cluck! Backa!! I caught it by french kissing my chicken last week. It’s sad, but true. I love chicken! (only after it uses beakwash) Here are some pictures of people in my town. I’ve just started my Tamiflu and hope to be cured, Buck buck! in 10 days. Wish me luck please. And to answer this post, I think stockpiling when done wisely is a good, Buck!, choice.
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.goodgrub.org/photogallery/images/Crew%2520flapping%2520wings.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.goodgrub.org/photogallery/pages/Crew%2520flapping%2520wings.html&h=450&w=299&sz=28&tbnid=6AufRfwTjKIJ:&tbnh=124&tbnw=82&hl=en&start=8&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dflapping%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN
Has anyone received same message as above in personal inbox?
ie: George Bakary and Sister.
If anyone has been in touch with such person and found further info about such accusations please leave blog!
Or email info to imprtchic2@yahoo.ca
Please understand i am not looking to damage reputation of this such person.
Or you for this i only want to know what they need and if this needs to be adressed further please understand and thank you.
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