Randall Jarrell similarly observed that "[Wallace] Stevens did what no other American poet has ever done, what few poets have ever done: wrote some of his best and newest and strangest poems during the last year or two of a very long life."
In contrast:
[Jean-Luc] Godard has directed scores of movies in a career that continues today in its fifth decade, but there is a strong critical consensus that his most important single work is his first full-length movie, Breathless, which he made in 1960 at the age of 30.
Those two passages are from David W. Galenson’s forthcoming Old Masters and Young Geniuses: The Two Life Cycles of Artistic Creativity. Here is a related working paper. Here are many other interesting papers.
My question: Which economists have done extremely important work after the age of 50? Have done their best work after 50? After 40? Comments are open, I welcome your suggestions but it is not easy…















Nobel prize winner George Stigler, age 50, The Economics of Information (1961), was probably his most important single paper.
FA Hayek (b 1899) did much of his best work after 40: Use of Knowledge in Society (1945), Constitution of Liberty (1960), Road to Serfdom (1944), Individualism and Economic Order (1948)
Douglass North did most of his best work from his 50s on. The Rise of the Western World, Structure and Change in Economic History, etc.
Fogel began his career late and his most famous book, Time on the Cross appeared in 1974, when he was 48. His great work on standard of living The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death is a product of his late 70s.
The less purely mathematical the contributions, the more likely that experience and age are beneficial to serious work.
I believe Ronald Coase was 50. Of course, he had also produced very important work in his 20′s as well. I think an important thing to remember with the authors of large treatises is that publication dates may only imperfectly measure when they were most productive. A book like Human Action or Wealth of Nations is the product of many years of study and thought, and it’s certainly a possibility that the flashes of insight and creativity which ultimately led to the book happened much earlier in the life of the author than the book’s actual publication.
I do not know enough about the work of those economists to know whether this is indeed the case, but I would be interested in learning.
Would it be fair to mention Frédéric Bastiat? According to my sources, he published all of his economic works between the ages of 44 and 49.
John Maynard Keynes, of course–he was 53 when the General Theory appeared. Joseph Schumpeter was in his late 50s when Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy appeared; his History of Economic Analysis was published after he died in his late 60s. Knut Wicksell was a late starter, publishing his most noted work in his 40s and 50s. Irving Fisher was productive through his 60s. Finally, the late Charles Kindleberger once told me that he and Alec Cairncross were having a competition to see who could write the most books in retirement. After retirement, Kindleberger produced important revisions of at least two of his earlier books.
Gary Becker.
His work on the economics of the family was published when he was 50 – and part of his Nobel prize citation. His work on rational addiction came out in his late 50s.
Now 75, he has four or five fascinating papers on the go, including one on demographics and one on terrorism. Perhaps not as influential as his work on human capital, but not bad going. And he still teaches full time.
Historian Jacques Barzun was 94 when his bestseller “From Dawn to Decadence” was published.
Laibson began his work on hyperbolic discounting in grad school in 1994. My best guess for his age then was 28.
Marty Weitzman is doing really innovative stuff both in environmental and macro.
Even on the strictly math side of things there are exceptions to the usual story of it’s all over now baby blue by the time one hits 30 or so (much less the 40 or 50 being put forward in this thread about economists). The most famous was the late Paul Erdos, who did brilliantly original work into his old age and was one of the most published mathematicians ever. He had so many coauthors that there is even an index of “small world connectedness,” the Erdos number. He was number zero; coauthors are Erdos number one, their coauthors Erdos number 2, and so forth. I have calculated that my number is no greater than 5, but when I told Duncan Watts that, “Mr. Small Worlds Networks,” he was not impressed and said that was true of “everybody.” These are the guys who believe that there no one is more than “six degrees of separation” from anybody else in the world.
Even on the strictly math side of things there are exceptions to the usual story of it’s all over now baby blue by the time one hits 30 or so (much less the 40 or 50 being put forward in this thread about economists). The most famous was the late Paul Erdos, who did brilliantly original work into his old age and was one of the most published mathematicians ever. He had so many coauthors that there is even an index of “small world connectedness,” the Erdos number. He was number zero; coauthors are Erdos number one, their coauthors Erdos number 2, and so forth. I have calculated that my number is no greater than 5, but when I told Duncan Watts that, “Mr. Small Worlds Networks,” he was not impressed and said that was true of “everybody.” These are the guys who believe that there no one is more than “six degrees of separation” from anybody else in the world.
Even on the strictly math side of things there are exceptions to the usual story of it’s all over now baby blue by the time one hits 30 or so (much less the 40 or 50 being put forward in this thread about economists). The most famous was the late Paul Erdos, who did brilliantly original work into his old age and was one of the most published mathematicians ever. He had so many coauthors that there is even an index of “small world connectedness,” the Erdos number. He was number zero; coauthors are Erdos number one, their coauthors Erdos number 2, and so forth. I have calculated that my number is no greater than 5, but when I told Duncan Watts that, “Mr. Small Worlds Networks,” he was not impressed and said that was true of “everybody.” These are the guys who believe that there no one is more than “six degrees of separation” from anybody else in the world.
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