Let us say, just for fun, that you woke up one morning to a world where everyone else’s demand curve — except yours — slopes upward. But it is not common knowledge that this is the case. What is the first oddity you would notice?
1. The most expensive radio stations would be filled with the most ads. The music would never come.
2. Your house would have no electricity, due to grid overload. (Is this true? An upward-sloping curve does not mean you will demand more at the current price. Think of twisting the demand curve around the current point of intersection.)
3. The most transparent agents would be found wandering the streets, bereft of all wealth, the victims of corporate price hikes.
4. You would wonder why so few people were reading your blog.
5. You would check ebay and find very high prices for items with active bidding. (Hmm…what kind of auction markets are behind the scenes for our power supply?) (Addendum: What is the Nash equilibrium here? Will people hold off bidding, hoping that tomorrow’s price will be higher?)
6. You would be puzzled why the Nordstrom’s sale was so empty.
7. It would take you days to notice any significant difference at all. After a few weeks, they would call in the econometricians to solve the identification problem in the data.
How long would it take you to figure out that other peoples’ demand curves were sloping upwards? How long would it take for society to fall apart?
Comments are open.
I have to admit, this makes no sense to me. You consume more of one good because it is higher cost? But then what happens to substitution? The slope can only be downward sloping if we can substitute one good or service for a higher cost one.
If this is so, then society falls apart because people seek ever higher-cost activities. Before long, we’re all criminals.
But this is wierd from a psychological and physiological viewpoint. Strange things happen like a skyrocketing suicide rate (what could have a higher cost?), except amoung those who are severly depressed, who keep themselves alive because of a perceived higher cost.
But also, doesn’t an upward sloping curve suggest increasing returns from consumption? This is also strange from a psychological/physiological standpoint: we’d all eat till our stomachs explode.
At least for simple-looking upward-sloping supply curves, I think you get a couple of weird properties that an economist might notice, even if nobody else did:
a. Imposing a price ceiling below the market clearing price would result in surpluses instead of shortages. Similarly, imposing a price floor above the market clearing price would result in shortages.
b. Making some good cheaper to produce would lead to more being consumed, but also to the market price going up. Similarly, making the good more expensive to produce would lead to less being consumed, but also to the market price falling.
–John
Assuming that we leave demand curves flat in the financial world, I might guess that gas-station managers are the first to notice. They post their prices on large signs every day and react to changes in the local market. On the first day, every manager who raised prices from the previous day would sell more, so it’s doubtful they use that information to lower prices on the second day. A good portion will raise prices again the next day, and these stations will sell a LOT more, as word starts to spread among the resident aliens about the “great” deal down the street.
Debt would rocket – people would seek out higher and higher interest rates
of course they would spend the money on dearer and dearer things.
…and seek higher and higher debt. (I live in a poor area, based on the electoral roll I get offered credit cards with 60% apr – more people would
take these up)
Things would collapse pretty rapidly.
Well, you’re talking about an inflationary economy of sorts. One thing that happens in a highly inflationary economy – the kind where the price of bread is expected to increase overnight – is that people shop constantly to avoid tomorrow’s higher prices. So I’d predict ever more urgent shopping activity, along with highly speculative futures markets.
Probably some commodity’s price would go to infinity very quickly. Once the price started rising fast enough all other goods would be unattractive by comparison. The entire earth’s supply of all of the factors of production would be diverted to production of this commodity as the price quickly rose to infinity. Then we’d all starve to death.
Possibly we’d all come to the conclusion that prices are no longer a good way to allocate resources. We’d all fend for ourselves in a post-apocalyptic Mad Max world. The only problem is, we’d prefer to wrestle a bear for his fish than catch one ourselves. Then we’d all starve to death.
John, perhaps you’re right. People might wait until the price increases if paying high prices is what actually creates satisfaction in this Bizarro world.
On the other hand, if people know the price will soon increase maybe they’ll get the jump and get it for a better price and get the satisfaction of owning something that’s worth a lot, even if they didn’t pay that much for it.
The question is whether our Bizarro world residents are motivated by price or value. In your Bizarro world everyone is Bizarro Paris Hilton. In my Bizarro world everyone is Bizarro Warren Buffett.
Nothing happens.
The supply curve starts sloping downwards, meaning equilibrium stays in roughly the same place. This is because the real-world upwards-sloping supply curve is a reflection of the producer’s downwards-sloping demand curve for inputs. So as soon as manufacturers get to scale (and hit the currently up-sloping bit of their supply curve), we find an equilibrium.
Real-world inputs become more scarce the more a manufacturer produces, raising their price, meaning the real-world producer requires a higher price to justify the higher volume. If in bizzarro-world he demands more inputs as their price rises, then his supply curve should flip.
Everyone with upward sloping demand curves would turn up to their jobs the next day and ask if they can work overtime.
This is just equivalent to saying “imagine that all goods became bads and vice versa”.
(obviously I mean an non-monotonic function. In any case, I don’t agree that econometricians would be able to “solve the identification problem”). Since money wuld have a negative value, I don’t see how there would be a valid numeraire.
It would seem that all of the production of any given good would go to at most one person, as it would be most profitable for suppliers to sell all of their stock to the one person who values the entire production of that one good most highly. –sw
An individual’s resources are finite and an individual’s demand curve cannot increase without bounds. Instead it will rise until the price equals the person’s wealth: beyond that point the person cannot buy _any_ of a good and the individual’s demand for that good falls to zero.
The aggregate result then depends on the relationship between the (strange) demand curve and the usual supply curve, which can pass above, below or multiply intersect the demand curve. AZ describes this very well.
In any case, under these circumstances you would notice almost immediately: the tipoff would be that friends and co-workers had no money (e.g., “No Starbuck’s today, please!”). Stopping by the local convenience store, you would find the clerks in a panic because no one was buying _anything_.
Long queues outside homeopathic clinics.
>
Sellers would set prices lower, in order to maximize profit.
>
Why?
Do people in this counterfactual world consider ad-listening costs? Does this factor in the price considered in the demand curve?
None of those predictions make sense to me.
The problem with this thought experiment is that even if every individual (or all but one) have an upward-sloping individual demand curve, the market demand curve will still be downward-sloping. The reason is, when people who seek higher prices will run out of money faster, thus buying fewer units. So higher prices still lead to fewer units sold — i.e., a downward-sloping market demand curve.
This is, of course, assuming that people still have finite budget constraints. If people don’t have budget constraints, then essentially every good is either free (if its supply can be increased through production) or subject to the tragedy of the commons (if its supply is inherently limited).
Differentiate between the following terms:
Nominal GDP and real GDP
Budget deficit and Budget surplus
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