Krugman on Unemployment

by on March 7, 2006 at 10:26 pm in Economics | Permalink

Via Brad deLong is Paul Krugman’s introduction to the General Theory.  Point Three in Krugman’s stripped down version is:

3. Government policies to increase demand, by contrast, can reduce unemployment quickly.

Well, that would certainly explain why unemployment recovered so quickly during the Great Depression.  Or perhaps, despite the fact that "all it took to get the economy going again was a surprisingly narrow, technical fix,"  we just weren’t trying hard enough.  See also Tyler’s comments.
Ue

Commenterlein March 7, 2006 at 11:39 pm

Large parts of the General Theory were motivated pretty much by this graph, and by Keynes’s assessment that government policy during that time wasn’t remotely expansionary enough.

You seem to believe that the graph is some kind of refutation of Krugram’s (or Keynes’s?) point. Why?

dsquared March 8, 2006 at 2:29 am

It is IMO more than a bit misleading to truncate that graph the year before the USA’s entry into the Second World War.

Don March 8, 2006 at 7:20 am

“Large parts of the General Theory were motivated pretty much by this graph…”

This would indeed be remarkable if true, since the General Theory was published in 1936 and much of it was composed well before then.

“It is IMO more than a bit misleading to truncate that graph the year before the USA’s entry into the Second World War.”

I don’t mean to put words in Alex’s mouth, but I think you missed the point, dsquared. Of course unemployment declined, eventually. But the sustained unemployment above 15% through the entire decade of the 1930′s, in the face of expansionary New Deal policies, rather gives the lie to Krugman’s “Government policies to increase demand…can reduce unemployment *quickly*.”

spencer March 8, 2006 at 8:36 am

While employment growth was moderate in the 1930s recovery, real gdp growth was much stronger. The difference of course was strong productivity. Interestingly, we are seeing much the same thing this cycle. But shouldn’t we expect to see strong productivity growth after a capital spending boom as we saw in the 1920s and 1930s.

All this is just to say the world is more complicated and attempts to simplify different approaches or what others say more often then not just ends up putting words in their mouth.

Barry March 8, 2006 at 9:48 am

Rick Shmatz: “Does this mean that Krugman is in favor of
Bush’s tax cuts?”

Rick, he is not, for very good reasons, which he had laid out in
his columns.

tdo March 8, 2006 at 10:34 am

Krugman is, of course, right. Quickly is a relative term (certainly an economist knows this), and if you were to extend your graph to 1950 you certainly would see the result of government policies to increase demand.

Alex Tabarrok March 8, 2006 at 11:04 am

What I dislike about much of Krugman’s recent analysis is that he never acknowledges that his opponents have an intellectual case. Thus in his intro, for example, (at least in the portion cited by Brad), he mentions Bill Buckley as an opponent of Keynesianism but not say Milton Friedman.

With regard to fiscal policy and unemployment my position is not that fiscal policy can never reduce unemployment, clearly if you take a lot of young men and ship them off to kill other young men that will reduce unemployment in at least two countries. Not exactly, what I call a “narrow, technical fix.”

Yes, one can argue that Roosevelt didn’t do the right things at the right time – that’s always the argument when the narrow, technical fix doesn’t work isn’t it? If only Keynes had lived…

More specifically, there are lots of leads and lags that make fiscal policy a difficult tool, plus there are Ricardian effects which cast doubt on the simple Keynesian model (the money has to come from somehwere), then there are the distortions of the political process and the fact that fiscal policy is often not the right thing to do in response to supply shocks.

Oh yes, one more thing in response to tdo and DSquared who think that “quickly” is a relative term and hence ten years of over 15% unemployment (on average) is not such a big deal – don’t you know that in the long run we are all dead?

Kevin Donoghue March 8, 2006 at 11:41 am

Perhaps the reason why Krugman doesn’t mention Milton Friedman as an opponent of Keynesianism is that Friedman just wasn’t all that strongly opposed. Consider:

In one sense, we are all Keynesians now; in another, no one is a Keynesian any longer. We all use the Keynesian language and apparatus, none of us any longer accepts the initial Keynesian conclusions.

and

Tyler Cowen March 8, 2006 at 11:47 am

I believe it was European war-driven demand for American goods which ended the Great Depression in the U.S.., not the fiscal policy of fighting the war itself. Recovery was already well underway.

jdr March 8, 2006 at 12:40 pm

“Barry — the recession was in 1938 and was a classical one created by tight money.”

Beware parsimonious explanations of the great depression.

Stan Peterson March 8, 2006 at 2:57 pm

It amazes me at times to see people who have an addiction to thought that has been tried since Marx’s Communist Manifesto in the mid 19th century in over 50 countries and failed in every single one of them, to believe resolutely that government can bring prosperity, if it just “wills” it.

Such monumental ignorance and intolerance for historical empirical evidence somehow does not disqualify these people as “thinkers”, is uncomprehensibly amazing. Krugman hasn’t had an original thought in his life and is an intolerant boob of the first order.

Situations are not parallel. Government that had paid off the debt of the civil war and WW I, had the ability to borrow on a massive scale. That hardly matches the circumstances today. We have not paid off the costs of the Cold War, although the Carter inflation went a long way to doing so for the WW II debt and that portion of the Cold War that occurred prior to him.

The ability of today’s governments to borrow and spend is no where near the ability that the governement had in the 30s & 40s. Carter, in fairness, as any politician would have had to do, was forced by the necessity to absorb the massive baby boomer move into the wage earning years to do something. His economists tried to flog the economy to grow at an artificially high rate to merely stay in place and not allow the unemployment rate to soar. They tried to absorb these boomers above the rate that the economy could comfortably do so.

In the end, the super loose money and fiscal stimulus only served to increase the debasement of the currency in an inflation that effectively wrote down much of the governmental (and personal) debt. This writedown together with monetary rectitude from Volker and Reagan had set the foundation, for an investment boom in the 80′s after the inflation was killed in the Volker tight money recession that Reagan tolerated and privately accepted.

Barkley Rosser March 8, 2006 at 7:51 pm

Tyler,

Indeed. Recovery was happening as the military Keynesianism in
Europe generated Keynesian foreign trade multiplier effects in the
US. But as of late 1941 the unemployment rate was still higher
than anytime since. Full employment might have been achieved by
1945 following such a course, but it was there pretty much
instantly once the US joined the war.

stan peterson,

Really, do you have to be so haplessly partisan? The loose monetary
policy started under Nixon, and Reagan denounced Carter for his
$40 billion deficit in 1980. A year later Reagan had it up to
$200 billion. Can we get our facts straight before we indulge?

Jim Henley March 9, 2006 at 6:25 pm

Actually, it sounded to me like Stan Peterson was giving Carter more credit than his partisan instincts wanted – the whole business about Carter being a slave to demographics is nothing a hardcore right-wing Carter-basher would go for.

My heretical thought: The Carter Presidency is due for a major reassessment, and upward.

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aion kina March 20, 2009 at 2:56 am

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