1. What is frustrating about non-economists. "Guess." "I don’t know." "Just guess!" "I don’t know." "That is why they call it a probability!" "How much do I have to pay you to guess?"
2. Travel notes from Haiti, and there is more behind the links.
3. Profile of economist David Colander, courtesy of www.politicaltheory.info.
4. David Luenberger’s Information Science is a comprehensive look at…information science. The best introduction I know.
Hmmm… perhaps Tyrone or Prof. Cowen could comment on the opposite, too: what do “common folk” get frustrated about economists with? Misconceptions and all…
I’m with the mechanic on this one. Most people, when they say “guess!”, are not asking for probabilities associated with a range of outcomes; they are asking for the most likely outcome. Then, when it doesn’t happen, they get mad at you. And I daresay the probability that your interlocutor is one of these people, not an economist, is quite high, so it’s understandable that you’d be unwilling to guess when chances are it’ll just turn out badly.
Also, of course, it can be quite difficult to assign probabilities to some things. I tend to find economically educated people push for guesses even when they are outside of people’s fields of expertise. There are not a lot of things where I feel I have the knowledge to validly assign any sort of probability, and would therefore rather not. I suppose auto mechanics should be within a mechanic’s sphere of knowledge (one hopes), but in the general case economists are much too quick to jump to the “assign a probability?” or, equivalently, “bet on that?” question, which I find discomforting.
Is there a joke about how if you ask 5 auto mechanics to forecast something, you’ll get 6 completely different forecasts? The auto mechanics might be more credible.
What really makes economists different from other professions is their ability to make bad guesses without being sued.
Hurm. With all due respect to Tyler and Bryan, one of the things that’s
most frustrating about economists is their assumption that only
economists believe in or understand probability or statistics. There’s
nothing in what Bryan asked that made it distinctively *economic;* and
“non-economists” is a weirdly overinclusive category for the people
being complained about!
The chance that even a great political philosopher *would* suffer from the inability to either grasp or really believe in probability: unity before and including Hobbes, very high (70% plus or minus 20%) from the 18th century through the late 20th; non-negligible even now. I know one living first-rate political philosopher who wouldn’t know a confidence interval if it bit him on his chi-squared, and suspect it’s true of a half-dozen others. Among English-language trained political philosophers younger than age 40, probably <15%.
But it wasn't on behalf of my own profession that I was protesting; we're halfway humanities people. But there are other pure social scientists besides economists. See, there are these people called political scientists, and sociologists, and demographers. For that matter, there are statisticians and mathematicians and natural scientists of various sorts, all of whom are as likely as an economist to be willing to think in terms of probabilities, confidence, and quantifiable uncertainty…
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