China’s gender imbalance is now 117 boys for every 100 girls and for second and third children (when allowed) the imbalance can be as high as 151 boys for every 100 girls. Millions of men, perhaps 15% of the population, may not be able to find wives.
"The world has never before seen the likes of the
bride shortage that will be unfolding in China in the decades ahead," says AEI demographer Nicholas Eberstadt.
The Chinese government has responded by making selective abortion illegal and by giving significant bonuses to parents of girls. Yet blackmarket ultrasound is available and, according to 60 Minutes, in demand. Some reports suggest that the gender imbalance is increasing.
Yet from the perspective of evolutionary fitness having a girl in China is now much better than having a boy. Boys who can’t find mates won’t be giving their parents any grandchildren. Will it take a generation of parents without grandchildren for evolutionary incentives to kick in? Why hasn’t this happened already? How hard is it to figure out that having a boy, especially if you are poor, means the end of your lineage?
Hat tip to Paul Rubin for pointing out this puzzle to me.















Has it not been shown that significant increases in societal violence – both domestic crime and war – are highly correlated with abnormally large populations of males between the ages of 15-25?
I am not an expert on Chinese culture, so take my comment with a grain of
salt.
I believe the culture is such that the wife becomes part of the husband’s
family, but the reverse is not true. Thus, whether their daughter has
children or not, their lineage, in a sense, ends.
I am not sure whether the end of lineage has such negative weight on one’s utility function. I guess chinese behavior is signaling large short term benefits of having a boy.
This always strikes me as one of the more notable failures of Classical Economic Theory, precisely because it persists. I spent some time in India last summer, and although I can’t find the link, I remember reading stories of how farmers in rural Punjab were buying tractors that they could never possibly use on their small plots of land in order to impress potential brides’ families. This in a region where the gender ratio is now nearly the same as the one you stated (~1.15 to 1 I think). India has nothing like a one-child policy, so I don’t see how this is anything but a market failure, so to speak.
“India has nothing like a one-child policy, so I don’t see how this is anything but a market failure, so to speak.”
Well, India has also tried a lot of government remedies, including outlawing the practice, to no avail. So it’s equally a failure of government.
India also has the same tradition of a wife leaving her parents’ family and joining the husbands. Note that in India, the wealthier and more educated the mother, the more likely that she uses sex-selective abortion to guarantee a son.
I don’t think in either case it’s really a failure of economic theory. Sex-selective abortion became much more prominent in the late 20th century with ultrasound, and so there is a question of how long it would persist. Yes, one would expect the dowry tradition to turn into bride price eventually; there are apparently very deep-seated cultural and other reasons that make them view women as less valuable. Economic theory accepts that cultural preferences exist.
Note that the problem is not with economic theory but with evolutionary theory! As far is evolution is concerned whether the daugher becomes a part of her husband’s family is irrelevant – genes are genes and evolution “maximizes” genetic fitness. My surprise is that the evolutionary incentives don’t appear to be as strong as one might have thought.
Ask them why they have sons, and they will tell you it is because sons
take care of them in their old age. Whether the sons have wives is
not relevant to their parents. It’s not the parent’s problem if there is
no one to take care of their son when he is old.
A couple of thoughts as to why the “rational response” Prof. Tabarrok describes may not be occurring:
1. Coordination problem. Traditionally males tend to marry women a few years younger than them; perhaps parents today think that parents in a few years, with this same information, will reverse the trend. When that 2nd group of parents has more female children, voila! – the 1st group’s males will have females to marry. (Why take a chance on a reversal of cultural norms that may take decades to occur?) However, I do not know if the older male-younger female pattern occurs in China.
2. Information problems. For people to respond rationally to this setup, the parents of the “bottom 17 out of every 117 boys” must realize that they ARE the bottom 17. However, I suspect that these people either
a. do not realize they ARE the bottom 15% – some interesting psych studies show that those at the bottom tend to overestimate their relative performance, and I see no reason why this should not apply to parents as well. (If anything, anecdotal evidence seems to indicate this effect is even STRONGER among parents evaluating their childrens’ relative desirability…)
b. do not realize the magnitude of the problem – the “bottom 15%” parents are likely not to be the more well-educated, better-off parents connected to society at large. Thus they may not know that the male/female imbalance is a problem, or even if they observe it locally, they may think that it is ONLY a local, and not a nationwide, problem – IE “my village just happens to have a few more boys than girls every year, I’m sure the next village over doesn’t have this problem and we can always find girls there.”
The “bottom 15%” parents are likely not to be the more well-educated, better-off parents connected to society at large.
Ah, but as I mentioned, several studies have shown that the less-educated, worse-off parents are more likely to let their girls be born rather than aborting them, at least in India. See here, among other places. This was part of the famous Lancet study released recently.
There is an evolutionary argument that this makes sense, of course, since the sons of less-educated, worse-off parents will be the ones less likely to marry, as you note.
“No parent believes their child will be in the bottom 15% of their peer group.”
The wisest comment here!
There was an article in the Economist recently that attributed this to some disease, and not to parental gender selectivity. I don’t remember which issue or which disease. Anyone remember this?
Whole Sigma:
If you follow the wikipedia link I provided, you’ll see reference and a link to Emily Oster’s work implying that Hepitatis B is at least partially responsible for some of the sex-difference.
As south park has shown, guys who can’t get laid are dangerous. People driven by their genes and frustrated by society will lash out in violent directions. Just look at what some people are willing to do for the promise of 72 virgins.
It looks to me as though people are more influenced by memetic competition rather than genetic. Otherwise, people from cultures where raising daughter is a bad deal would have daughters anyway, but encourage them to marry into cultures that don’t expect dowries.
I conclude that looking normal is more important than having the maximum number of grandchildren.
Thanks Alex. MR readers interested in this topic can find more on China’s demographic trends here and here.
Does anyone believe the sex (or “gender”) imbalance between two historic antagonists–China and India–may act to propel them to war?
Isn’t that the traditional solution to weeding out a large bachelor herd?
Possibly. But possibly they’ll just slake their lusts with dating games robotic sex-dolls from Japan.
On a different note — I thought that in China, the one-child policy did not apply to the non-Han minorities. Is this so? If so, why is the central government diluting the Han majority like that? I had understood their strategy in Tibet and the other outlying provinces (e.g. Xinjiang, Qinghai, I think) to be to seed the population with Han until it was majority Han, so that if in the future, Western powers complain about a lack of “self-determination” or somesuch, they can hold a vote and the majority Han colonists will carry the day for them.
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