What caused the Agricultural Revolution?

by on July 20, 2006 at 1:16 am in History | Permalink

I have long assumed (without much evidence) that mankind invented agriculture about 10,000 years ago because we suddenly, for some reason, became smarter.  Now I see an alternative explanation:

It is no accident that no matter where agriculture sprouted on the
globe, it always happened near rivers. You might assume, as many have,
that this is because the plants needed the water or nutrients. Mostly
this is not true. They needed the power of flooding, which scoured
landscapes and stripped out competitors. Nor is it an accident, I
think, that agriculture arose independently and simultaneously around
the globe just as the last ice age ended, a time of enormous upheaval
when glacial melt let loose sea-size lakes to create tidal waves of
erosion. It was a time of catastrophe.

Here is the source.  Should I take the author seriously?  Most of the article is terrible. 

His main kind of argument — thinking about food in terms of energy costs — is popping up more and more.  No, I don’t think a quick perusal of Debreu’s Theory of Value refutes the resource pessimists, but a) the author rarely talks about the role of prices, and b) technological efficiency and economic efficiency are confused frequently.

Perhaps most disturbingly, a healthy, wealthy, and happy human life is considered a burden upon the earth.  For instance we are told that if the entire world lived like the United States, fossil fuels would run out within seven year’s time, or maybe ten.  What a horror such a world would be.  There is no talk of how much higher the rate of invention would be, or how much we would save by having better institutions.

By the way, here is my highly relevant post on the economics of mulch.

1 back40 July 20, 2006 at 1:49 am

“Should I take the author seriously?”

No. His history is selective where it is not simply mistaken. His analysis is simplistic where it is not mistaken. He doesn’t understand his subject and makes a muddled mess. There’s a pony in there, but there’s too much horse shit to find it.

2 joan July 20, 2006 at 2:08 am

” agriculture arose independently and simultaneously around the globe” ???
From what I have read, agriculture arose in the middle east 11000 bc, china 9000 bc, and in the america’s about 5000 bc. There may be new research that changes these numbers.

3 Factory July 20, 2006 at 4:08 am

“For instance we are told that if the entire world lived like the United States, fossil fuels would run out within seven year’s time, or maybe ten. What a horror such a world would be. There is no talk of how much higher the rate of invention would be, or how much we would save by having better institutions.”
Erm, it should be pointed out that the US uses rather alot of fossil fuels compared to other first world nations, and it’s institutions and rates of inventions are not substansially different than those nations.

4 mitch July 20, 2006 at 4:47 am

Erm, it should be pointed out that the US uses rather alot of fossil fuels compared to other first world nations, and it’s institutions and rates of inventions are not substansially different than those nations.

I think the point is that if everyone used resources like we do, then prices would go through the roof, giving enormous incentives for investing in the development of alternatives (like algae biodiesel, cellulosic ethanol, solar, nuclear) and conservation techniques (like hybrid cars).

Also, on measures like carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, the US is actually below lots of other countries. In other words, part of the reason we use more resources than anyone else is that we DO more than anyone else.

5 Brad Ewing July 20, 2006 at 7:39 am

I typically enjoy Tyler Cowen’s thoughtful posts, but I found his interpretation of this article and his thoughts on it short-sighted and ignorant.

“the author rarely talks about the role of prices”

Many economists use this argument, but it is inherently flawed. Wealth is subjective, thus everyone holds a different value to the same resource. In general, free-markets are incredibly accurate in determining the optimal price. But in the case of respecting finite resources, the market has failed miserably.

Since we are currently experiencing the largest mass-extinction in 65 million years, I would say that current economic models are unsustainable. Is the intrinsic value of a tree your great-grandfather planted accounted for by the timber market? I think we all value the safety and health of our families and the ecosystem more than a billion bottles of Coca-Cola. Does the market represent this?

A world without subsidies or tariffs and with accurately valued natural resources would allow for the optimal price in every product. Unfortunately, that is the idealistic economist’s dream and reality must be accounted for before this downward spiral in modern economics goes too far.

Here is a quote from The Economist:
“The valuation of ecosystem services is not without its difficulties. Nevertheless, the fact that there is a growing consensus about how and where it is appropriate is an important step forward for economists and environmentalists. In 1817, David Ricardo, a pioneering economist, noted that abundance in nature was rarely rewarded: “where she is munificently beneficent she always works gratis.† But if nature pays, who then will pay for nature?”

6 dearieme July 20, 2006 at 10:07 am

New Guinea is, I understand, another place where agriculture is reckoned to have been invented independently. No relation to rivers, as far as I know.

7 jim July 20, 2006 at 10:32 am

Why not read something worthwhile on the topic like:

“Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies” by Jared Diamond ?

8 Noah Yetter July 20, 2006 at 10:58 am

“Is the intrinsic value of a tree your great-grandfather planted accounted for by the timber market?”

You lost me here. As any economist will tell you (and happily PROVE to you) there is no such thing as intrinsic value.

9 Neel Krishnaswami July 20, 2006 at 11:12 am

My evaluation of Guns, Germs and Steel was retroactively lowered a great deal by reading Collapse. His account of the failure of the Greenlanders in Collapse is wholly wrong — he claims that the Greenlanders refused to eat fish for cultural reasons, because fish bones are not found very often in Norse middens. This is simply untrue. The reason that fish bones are hard to find is that they are a favored food of scavengers, and decompose quickly in a watery, acidic environment (like a low tundra marsh or bog). The fact that archaeologists find any fish bones at all indicates that fish was a gigantic portion of their diet. And in fact, radiocarbon analysis of Norse bones from the 1300s indicates that fish was between 50-80% of their diet.

Since that was one of his star examples, and he got it totally wrong, Bayes’s law tells me to increase the likelihood that there are other equally-serious blunders in his work.

10 Brad Ewing July 20, 2006 at 1:30 pm

“As any economist will tell you (and happily PROVE to you) there is no such thing as intrinsic value.”

If you consider yourself an economist, I am waiting for your mathematical proof that “there is no such thing as intrinsic value.”

My perceptions on intrinsic value come from “The Intelligent Investor” by Benjamin Graham and numerous interviews with Warren Buffett. Besides comments by these two influential investors, I believe common sense disagrees with your logic that “there is no such thing as intrinsic value.”

Prove to me that a painting could be valued at $135 million without intrinsic value. Prove to me that fond memories of a particular product or property plays no role in the buyer or sellers valuation. Prove to me that, if all else is equal, intrinsic value plays no role in a person’s valuation of a product.

11 Patrick July 20, 2006 at 2:28 pm

Archaeologist chiming in here, although I am not even remotely an expert on the agricultural revolution in the Fertile Crescent. First, there are at least 7 major centers of independent agricultural “invention†: Fertile Crescent, China, India, Sub-Saharan Africa, Andes, Mesoamerica, and Eastern North America (other experts may divide these a little differently or recognize others, but this is sufficiently well accepted to be found in most textbooks on the subject). They did not all happen at the same time. The Fertile Crescent domesticates started in around 10 kya, and the North American about 2-3 kya (the others in between). I can’t think of many reputable researchers that attribute the start of the revolution to a change in innate intelligence. People started doing relatively modern practices (music, art, religion) at least 50 kya. Many paleontologists would argue that anatomically modern humans emerged 100-150 kya, and that innate intelligence may have been similar since then. It is also important to recognize that almost all early domestications were likely “accidental† and humans merely had to replicate the processes of seed movement and selection that they were doing as hunter-gatherers. So I doubt simple domestication takes all that much smarts. However, maintaining it and improving on domestication (selection for even more advantageous phenotypes and cross-breeding) does take some about of effort and powers of observation.

There are several theories about why and when agriculture emerged and most researchers no longer accept a single one of them as primary. Not all agricultural “inventions† are riverine in nature (see the potato in the Andes). Most of them are simply extensions of the behaviors that hunters-and-gatherers were already doing. More than anything, you can’t domesticate something if there were no domesticatable plants or animals in the region. The Fertile Crescent had more than any other (the thesis of Guns, Germs, and Steel) which made it a prime candidate for being first. It also takes a population that will consider becoming sedentary or semi-sedentary in order to really become a major part of the diet. This might happen as a result of population pressure, conflict, environmental degradation, or any number of other factors.

In Eastern North America, for example, the domestication of several starchy seed plants (goosefoot, marsh elder, etc.), increasing population, and changing social mores that allowed people to interact with each other with a semi-common rubric of ritual caused populations to concentrate in the river valleys and become sedentary for several hundred years (ca. 2000 ya). After the introduction of the bow-and-arrow (ca. 1500 ya) many people left the river valleys for the less sedentary lives in the uplands because the new technology allowed them to exploit small forest mammals better. A few hundred years later maize arrived and most were back to the river valleys again (ca. 1000 ya).

12 Roger Sweeny July 20, 2006 at 5:39 pm

In the last 2 million years, there have been about 10 glacial-interglaical cycles. During each of them, some sort of hominids were around. But only during the last one were there “anatomically modern humans.” “Getting smarter” was necessary but not sufficient.

13 Patrick July 20, 2006 at 7:29 pm

Roger: Actually there was an interglacial at 100 kya that lasted for about 10 kya. There were anatomically modern humans alive during that period. Archaeologists have documented a real flourescence in cultural practices (i.e. ritualized burials in Shanidar Cave in the Levant and dozens of other examples) that seemed to have faded once it got cold again. AMTs and warm weather were necessary for the agricultural revolution, but not sufficient.

14 jim July 20, 2006 at 8:40 pm


Hey dude, you are the one who generalized from a sample of one, don’t blame me (chill).

15 Brad Ewing July 20, 2006 at 9:29 pm

Taeyoung and Noah,
“Intrinsic values hold that the value of goods and services is a property built into the item itself. This implies that every item has a certain worth that does not depend on what people think of it… The term intrinsic value means that the item would have value even if it were not used as money… money is used to mean wealth” (i.e. cigarettes in P.O.W. camps can be used as commodity money)
(Mankiw, 333).

Noah, you said, “As any economist will tell you (and happily PROVE to you) there is no such thing as intrinsic value.” It appears as though Professor N. Gregory Mankiw might disagree with you.

It is my opinion that the facts support the idea that “Wealth is subjective, thus everyone holds a different value to the same resource.” Depending on the stability or traditions of a culture, the same resource could transition from a intrinsic value to fiat money, or vice-versa. Zimbabwe’s definition of wealth has drastically changed over the past couple of years and if you own a stone wheel in Yap, you’re rich!!!

My point is that modern economic theory fails to incorporate some of the things we value most in life into economic models. One cannot accurately assess the value of an item “even if it were not used as money… or wealth,” without respecting the subjectivity of wealth.

16 Robert Speirs July 21, 2006 at 2:59 pm

I remember reading somewhere (Spengler?) that agriculture developed because some smart, aggressive guy realized he could use control of agricultural resources like water to expand his power over other men and expand the size of the unit over which he has control to maximize his wealth. Sounds very – human. Settling down and farming was not a collective decision but a command directive. There does seem to be some evidence that agriculture did not benefit the individual hunter-gatherer sufficiently so that it would have been adopted without force being used. Cowboys, for instance, don’t see “sod-busters” as having a better life. All changes in society don’t have to lead to better lives for the masses. But those that lead to more power for those in power may be falsely portrayed as leading to better lives for all.

17 Lee A. arnold July 21, 2006 at 9:29 pm

What Noel Welsh, Patrick the archaeologist, and Barkley Rosser wrote. The Bushmen of South Africa know every tree and stone for hundreds of square miles. To see artifacts from 25,000 years ago, it is more likely that humans possessed far in excess of the simple cognitive ability needed to observe that scattering seeds will result in growing plants. But primitive agriculture is a very hard life. Meanwhile wild nature was bountiful. So agriculture probably wasn’t discovered merely 10 or 11 thousand years ago, because people got smarter. Instead, the sedentary life was finally resorted to, as growing population came up against dwindling wild supplies. This might have been precipitated by a relatively quick ecological change, crashing the food webs in lots of places, brought on by the interglacial. Agriculture began as a technological fix.

This argument started developing as long ago as THE FOOD CRISIS IN PREHISTORY by Mark Cohen (Yale U. Press, 1979)

18 nick July 22, 2006 at 4:50 am

Climate-based explanations for the birth of agriculture are nonsense. Their popularity stems from nothing more than the climate being an easily measured variable. There was plenty of good land quite suitable for agriculture in temperate climates during the last Ice Age, and plenty of rivers and erosion. In general there were many areas during the coldest part of the Ice Age that satisfied the climate, soil, ecology, and other environmental requirements of early agriculture. They were just closer to the equator. The real explanation for the agricultural revolution is probably far less observable:

The crucial role of security for the history of farming may also shed light on the birth of agricultural in the first place. Hunter-gatherers were very knowledgeable about plants and animals, far more than the typical modern. It would not have taken a genius — and there were many, as their brains were as large as ours — to figure out that you can plant a seed into the ground and it will grow. There must have been, rather, some severe institutional constraints that prevented agriculture from arising in the first place. The basic problem is that somebody has to protect that seedling for several months from enemies, and then has to harvest it before the enemy (or simply a envious neighbor) does. Security and allocation of property rights between providers of security and providers of farm labor were the intractable problems that took vast amounts of trial and error as well as genius to solve in order for agriculture to take root.

This would also explain how agriculture could spread from a single yet look like independent inventions in the archaeological record. The secondary innovations (e.g. crop and livestock domestications and agricultural tools) were independent while the basic innovation that spread was in the culture of cooperation. The spread of this innovation in oral culture can be observed at best indirectly in the archaeological record.

19 BadLiberal July 22, 2006 at 7:54 pm

Agree with the above sentiments re: Guns, Germs, and Steel. The author starts out with an admirable premise: humans are generally equally smart, so what accounts for the European waves of conquest in the 19th century? However, in Jared’s quest for even-handedness, he completely writes off culture as being an inhibitor or accelerator of progress… it’s all due to geography, and we are merely helpless pawns…

As far as the rise of agriculture: it’s interesting to compare, for example, the amount of calories in a shank of wild boar, or a pound of oysters, against the calories available in a grain of rice.

Look how small rice, rye, and wheat are. You have to work a lot harder to get accessible calories out of cereals than apples or rabbits or ducks or yams.

In other words, you wouldn’t go to all the trouble of growing, harvesting, threshing, grinding and cooking unless you were really freakin’ hungry. As far as my own reading of human nature goes, “we did it because we had to” is a lot more compelling than “those evil priest kings made us do it.”

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22 Ometecutli November 30, 2006 at 2:57 pm

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