For a political leader, not appearing in public can mean:
1. You hate attention. You are a recluse, like Thomas Pynchon or J.D. Salinger.
2. You are countersignalling. Your political position (or health) is so secure that you don’t need to show your face. Was Reagan at times an example?
3. Sheer random noise. Maybe you are playing chess and haven’t given it much thought.
4. You are dead or dying.
5. Someone else is in charge, and they have yet to figure out the correct message. Or groups of agents are fighting for control and no one is staging the appearances one way or the other.
6. No one is in charge, and everyone is afraid to appear to be in charge, for fear that the sick guy will recover and come back and squash them.
7. One guy used to run PR, and until he gets better everyone else is clueless and paralyzed.
We can rule out #1, #2, and #3. Right now I will bet on some mix of #6 and #7. But is there any point at which the sheer passage of time should push us to believe in #4 and #5? Note that Raul has not shown his face either. Are there alternative hypotheses? The desire for a grand reentrance? After all, a growing number of Cuban officials are talking of Castro’s return…
Castro? You had me going there. I was sure you were talking about someone else closer to home.
I suggest a modification of #6. Say Raul is healthy and in charge, but hiding and waiting to see who steps up to take power. Then Raul will know who the ambitious person is and have him killed, confident that the biggest threat to his rule has been eliminated.
What I’ve been assuming, I guess, is some combination of #5 and #6. If Raúl is safely and firmly in charge, and if Fidel is expected to recover, any public apparances by Raúl would make him appear to be the _new_ leader of Cuba rather than the temporary steward. This is a weak position to be in in terms of propaganda, and of course it might also cause another shoe to drop but that’s pure speculation.
Put more succintly: I expect that if Fidel is really not going to recover, Raúl will appear, but not before.
“a lot of the world thought that Mickey Mouse was a tyrant during the last century…”
Better ask Minnie about that. And maybe, while you’re at it, ask her to answer the question of the century: You and Mickey are mice, Pluto’s a dog, Donald’s a duck but what the heck is Goofy, anyway?
I can’t help thinking though, that the queen bee who is born first after the old queen dies has to go around and kill her royal sisters before they emerge from their cells. If she doesn’t act quickly and one emerges, there’s a fight to the death.
Maybe El Beardo is in a coma. If Raul is his closest relative on the island and the doctor asks if extraordinary measures should be taken to keep him alive, I wonder what Raul would say? Because I think we know what his daughter in Miami would say. I predict a radical reversal of positions since the Schiavo affair on whether people in comas should be kept alive, especially by the lefty Fidel-is-God crowd.
Tyler,
Why did you write the list from the perspective of the leader?
(and it broke down in 6)
#2 is interesting to apply to the Bush presidency.
In the beginning of his presidency he was giving no press briefings, and very little public appearances, countersignalling. Later on when his political power was much less “secure” he suddenly has to be out giving alot of events.
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