1. New blog on the global economy
2. Why are condoms so expensive?
3. Is daydreaming the brain’s default mode?
4. The evolution of Manhattan; I miss the real city I once knew
5. The Fermi paradox: where are we? Via Jason Kottke.
6. Mexico’s doctors smoke at higher-than-average rates
With regard to the Fermi paradox – the linked article makes a lot of sense. In response to “is there other life out there or are we all alone?” the most likely answer is “yes.”
RE the Fermi paradox. The time between the Wright brothers getting us off the ground in powered flight to sending two Pioneer probes through the heliopause, which defines the beginning of interstellar space, is just one hundred years. We are on our way.
The exponential/quadratic growth postulated in the Fermi Paradox doesn’t engage until we have a colony in a second star’s planetary system, and that colony’s economy has progressed to the point where it produces its own colonization starships.
-dk
Rasmus Bjoerk’s paper is idiotic. He does not use exponential growth in his approach to searching. An easier, but essentially equivalent question is: if aliens did not want to find us, how long would it take?
Here’s a short paper on how even an exponential search can fail:
Osame Kinouchi
“Persistence solves Fermi Paradox but challenges SETI projects”
“Suppose that you are a member of a lost Amazonian tribe that has never been contacted. Now, it is obvious that a technological civilization able to perform travel by air at 1000 km/hour certainly had time to colonize the entire globe. But since they have not reached you (remember, you are a member of a undiscovered Ianomani tribe), should you conclude that there is no such global civilization?”
Great analysis of condom pricing. It falls (thankfully) just short of a major condom spiracy theory but illustrates some wonderful economic points – mainly in the hypotheses:
- the high value which may be placed on discretion
- the failure of “one size fits all” marketing and distribution
- the extreme lengths distributors and marketers are prepared to go to match niche demands
I see no evidence of “unjustified costs”.
The apparent absence of a co op in the form suggested may evidence the high costs of collective condom action and free riding.
Good spotting Tyler.
Never pay for condoms. They give them away for free at Planned Parenthood offices. They even supply paper bags so you can grab dozens at a time if you want.
Two reforms that would help all of New York, not just Manhattan, would be to
legalize street drugs and to take a page from Maggie Thatcher’s playbook by
privatizing the welfare housing. Let welfare housing tenants become owners,
declare a fifteen-year (or longer) property tax moratorium on these properties.
The NYCHA bureaucracy would scream bloody murder and oppose it to the bitter
end, but overcoming their opposition would be a cheap price to pay for improving
the lives of the underclass, and everyone else.
A friend of mine just bought a place in Jackson Heights and says it’s quite
livable. His young son goes to a very good private school, which is close by.
There are many other reforms that would help, such as cutting taxes and red tape.
(The bureaucracy and regulations developers have to negotiate in New York is
insane.) Improving the subways would also be high on the list.
As Ronald noted, the fermi paradox article was a bit of a fizzle. The author started by ruling out self-replication; the paradox depends entirely on replication.
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