A loyal MR reader asks:
What are your thoughts on the new dynamic optimal public finance policy models being built and simulated? Will they yield any new insights applicable for the real world, or are they a fad?
Real insights maybe, real measurements for sure. I take this paper by Mankiw to be a paradigmatic example. Through this body of literature we learn, or confirm our previous intuitions, that:
1. Cutting U.S. income tax rates is not, in general, self-financing. We also get a rough idea of how much revenue we can make up in the long run.
2. Many forms of corporate and capital income taxation are, in the long or even medium run, inefficient.
3. Ideally we should move to a consumption tax. (NB: Moving outside the models, I am scared that this kind of tax reform will just turn into another tax increase. We’ll add a VAT to income taxation rather than shift to the VAT. Yikes.)
These results are the bread and butter of applied public finance. You can complain all you want about the assumptions, the artificiality, and the use of intuition to throw out unacceptable calibrations, but at the end of the day there is not a better way to do the work.
A fad, perhaps, but there is nothing wrong with that. The Beatles were a fad too.
By the way, here is an interesting paper on a different frontier in public finance, namely field experiments.
#10 in a series of 50.
The secret, I suggest, of introducing a new tax is to scrap an old one. Not reduce ir’s rate – that can easily be reversed. Scrap it. What would it cost to scrap the employee contribution to social security?
Isn’t a VAT a production tax, since it taxes value added?
Oh, *that* new dynamic public finance. It’s not new, those ideas were well known when I was studying for my Public Finance prelims 21 years ago. Sure, it is better than the purely static models, but in its current guise it is false advertising. Who ever took the static models that seriously anyway?
So we build a theoretical model, and then we let the simulation confirm our theory?
How well does the model fit real data?
How can I set up an experiment to disprove his conclusion?
If you assume that labor consumes their income, ignoring that a substantial fraction of that consumprion is used to create human capital, and the evidence that healthly well educated people are more productive, you will always get the result that taxing capital is slows economic growth more than taxing labor. Anyone who has ever had the slightest doubt about the use of climate models as a basis for public policy, should show the same sceptisim about any results that come from even more incomplete equlibrium economic models.
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