Philip Jenkins notes:
…while they’re going to grow, by American standards
Muslim minorities in Europe are not going to be that huge. The other
big issue is that when people talk about Muslim minorities, they
automatically assume that everyone of Muslim background is going to
continue to be a dyed-in-the-wool, hardcore Muslim in Europe.
There’s
a lot of evidence that they’re not. If you look at Algerian people in
France, they have a strong sense of ethnic identity, but there’s quite
a low level of religious observance. They look like Episcopalians more
than anything. Now obviously, there’s a small and potentially very
dangerous hardcore of quite extreme Islamists, and you’d have to be a
fool to ignore that. But the majority of people are very happy to
assimilate to some kind of French or Dutch or German identity.
He also says this:
The Middle East in the last 15 years is going through the
great demographic transition and that is one of the great facts in
world politics. What it should mean is that in about 15 years these
countries should be vastly more stable. The next 15 years could be a
very rocky ride, but the long-term trend is to underpopulation
Thanks to Jeremy Lott for the pointer.
“They look like Episcopalians more than anything.”
Episcopalians with 40% unemployment rate and a habit to burn cars? According to Pew 35% of French muslims thought suicide bombings were justifiable. These darn Episcopalians!
Nice to see Cowns rules of accepting any argument without question as long as it supports immigration not only applies to the US.
Secondly it is hardly interesting to us if young immigrant toughs in France have a high level of “religious observance†. Are the young Arab toughs rioting in the streets better people if they drink vodka, don’t prey five time per day and don’t give 2.5% of their income to charit?!?
What matters is all the problems Islam tends to be associated with, such as refusal to adapt to another identity, alienation from the non-Muslim society, militant tendencies in scripture, anti-modernity, suppression of women, hatred of Jews etc. Not to mention the low level of education and extremely high crime rate (although as we have learnt to cultural libertarians such considerations are irrelevant).
“But the majority of people are very happy to assimilate to some kind of French or Dutch or German identity.”
Actually the opposite is true, at least here in Germany. Even the word “assimilation” is still considered polititcally incorrect because it is associated with some kind of forced neglection of one’s cultural identity, Everybody is speaking of “integration” instead, and it is seen as a goal for the state, not for the individual immigrant, so even basic language courses are paid from tax money.
Matters are much worse in Europe than Jenkins wants you to think.
Jeffrey,
The Middle East is still in the middle of a one-off transition: improvements in infant and child mortality precede declining birth rates. But those birth rates have come down every in the world, and they are declining fast in the Middle East:
Perhaps a little optimistic, but the demographics are correct.
I don’t know about muslims, but the jews are disappearing. Even in Israel, the percentage of jews is declining.
Nikolaus -
IMO, you are entirely correct. The Muslims (mostly Turks) started coming to Germany back in the 1950′s, when the economy was booming and there was a labor shortage. There are now Turkish families that have been in Germany for three generations. They speak the language perfectly but have usually not been allowed to become citizens and are very poorly assimilated (or integrated, if you prefer). At one time, this was common in the US, too, with Little Italy, Chinatown, Greektown, etc., where immigrants of the same nationality tended to cluster together. But their children were natural-born US citizens and pretty much moved out of the immigrant enclaves to become a part of mainstream American society. This has not happened in Germany (or elsewhere in Europe), where the Muslims pretty much stick together in their own neighborhoods. I think the idea that they are somehow “integrating” or “assimilating” is pretty much false.
Comparing the Algerians in France to Episcopalians in the US is plain weird,
especially given their extremely contrasting socio-economic statuses, including
that Episcopalians come from the most centrally accepted of all ethnic groups in
the US, arguably the country’s founders, and the only religion that ever had a
shot at being the state religion of the country, if there were to be one.
However, it is true that Islamic radicalism is a distinct minority among the
French-Algerians.
Adrian,
I just meant in general. I know the data is showing that populations keep going through the transition, but does that really mean it is inevitable for all societies?
Europe needs its own version of “the melting pot.”
“Plus the US policy of “born in the US and you’re a citizen” encourages the second generation to become Americans.”
They’ve long had the same policy in France. How’s that working out for them?
To the nearly incomprehensble Islam defender: perhaps it’s not fair to state in such definitive language that Muslims suppress women. However, it is very much the case that on this issue, as with many issues, non-secular Muslims are not culturally compatible with the values of the Western world. In this day and age, we don’t share your view of “protection” for what we used to call “the fairer sex.” Yes, there are those who are strict traditionalists and who strive to follow the letter of the law when it comes to holy scripture, but unlike in many Muslim nations, these are not written into either law (e.g. Sharia) or into the social code.
Another point I’d like to make is that Muslim does not equal Middle Eastern. A common mistake, but the highest or second highest population of Muslims live in Indonesia – pretty far from the Middle East (which, incidentally, does not include Tunisia, Algeria, and it could be argued even Turkey.)
They’ve long had the same policy in France. How’s that working out for them?
It would appear it hasn’t worked as well for France as well as it has worked in the United States, for the latter has almost entirely avoided the disorder and violence evident on the streets of France in recent times. The American-born descendants of Hispanic immigrants, while poorer than the US population as a whole, have mostly been satisfactorily assimilated into the mainstream. AFAIK, the majority of them are employed, non-poor, English-speaking, law-abiding, home owning registered voters who practice the nation’s dominant religion, Christianity.
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