I also show suggestive evidence, based on a very simple calibration, that the magnitude of behavioral response in Africa [to AIDS] is of a similar order of magnitude to that among gay men in the United States, once differences in income and life expectancy are taken into account.
Here is the link. Here is a non-gated version.
This paper by Oster is extremely important.
It has been suggested by many that AIDS in
Africa is driven by “culture” (whatever that
means), hence the economic effects are small.
Oster show that this ain’t so.
Tapen
Oster shows nothing of the sort. Considered in isolation, the differences in sexual behavior
*could* be explained by this sort of utility-maximizing Homo Economicus. But her general
model fails spectacularly when applied to other groups of people. Let’s look for example at the
differences in risk taking between young and old retired people, specifically with respect to how they
drive automobiles. An Oster-style theory would predict that the old people would be speed demons,
taking far more risks than the youngsters, since they had fewer years of life and less future
income to lose in case of a fatal accident. Of course this isn’t what we see, because Oster’s
theory is as bogus as a 3-dollar bill: she would like to elide the role of poor decision making
and lack of future time orientation as a cause of *both* poverty and risky behavior by making
it look like the latter is a reasoned response to the former. But she’s wrong.
bbartlog said:
“Let’s look for example at the differences in risk taking between young and old retired people, specifically with respect to how they drive automobiles. An Oster-style theory would predict that the old people would be speed demons, taking far more risks than the youngsters, since they had fewer years of life and less future income to lose in case of a fatal accident. Of course this isn’t what we see…”
An Oster-style theory would not predict, as you say, that old people would be speed demons, etc. I believe it would predict that old people would merely continue to drive even as their ability to do so dramatically degrades past the point where merely driving becomes dangerous. That’s what old people do.
Sailer said:
“I don’t think Oster’s comparison to gay American men makes straight Africans of both sexes look very good. Unlike out-of-the-closet American male homosexuals, who have relatively few children and thus little to live for other than their own pleasures, African heterosexuals, who are typically parents, should also have another economic incentive to preserve their health beside just enjoying their own normal life expectancy — they should take steps to avoid AIDS so they can be around to help out their children and grandchildren.”
Your ignorance of what homosexuals have to live for other than their own pleasures is inexcusable in this day and age. The next thing you’re going to tell us is that atheists can’t have worthy moral standards.
One general problem with economists is that they don’t know enough facts, and don’t really care enough to learn more.
While reasoning is fun, it’s just so much more fun to reason with a full deck of cards.
“Unlike out-of-the-closet American male homosexuals, who have relatively few children and thus little to live for other than their own pleasures…”
Wow. Just, wow. Let’s hear it for second-class citizens.
What does that mean “fig leaf construction?”
I want to thank Steven Sailer. His comments continue to make me laugh real hard.
Thank goodness I don’t take him seriously.
Maybe it is because I am gay “and thus have little to live for other than [my] own pleasures”.
Can only hope I won’t have a massive heart attack when hysterically laughing at his posts.
Good work Steve!
It’s funny to see how non-economists just don’t get the economic way of thinking at life and how blinded they are by preconceptions, misinformed priors and how completely confused they are by the complexities of the real world. Economists like Emily Oster, on the other hand, manage to abstract from complexities and distill the essentials of problems shedding light on how people behave and what outcomes we observe.
I agree with the Sheer Entertainer: Steve Sailer cracks me up (maybe it’s also because I’m gay?) If I took him seriously, I would be telling him what a complete moron I think he is.
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