In the Armchair Economist, Steven Landsburg argues that the people who read his book are likely to find that it wasn’t as good as they expected. The logic is impeccable – people who over-estimate the value of the Armchair Economist are more likely to buy it and thus discover their over-estimation (sadly, under-estimators never learn of their mistake). Nevertheless, despite the logic, I and many others discovered that Landsburg was wrong. The Armchair Economist and every Landsburg book exceed expectations.
Landsburg is back with More S-ex is Safer S-ex, and another error. This time Landsburg suggests that writing his book was socially destructive. Again, the logic is impeccable – a good book creates a lot less value than its price because to a large extent it displaces the second best book which was almost as good. Authors however are paid based on price and not on social value and thus write too many books. And yet, I must again disagree for Landsburg’s new book is a treasure. There is something to learn on almost every page.
Here’s one idea I learned. In the debate over the economics of global warming the correct discount rate to apply to future generations is a key variable with those arguing that we should do something now, implicitly (and explicitly) arguing for a low discount rate. But if we count future generations highly we ought also to be in favor of reforming social security. Investing social security in the stock market "royally screws" current retirees but increases the savings rate which will be benefit future generations. Thus, a low discount rate ought to weigh in favor of doing something about global warming and investing social security funds in the stock market. Not many people come out consistent on these grounds (I think Brad DeLong is one of the few.) I know, I don’t but Landsburg has got me thinking.
It’s all about discount rates. And as we consider those, we fall into a “spirit is willing but flesh is week” story line:
Do Consumers Want Fuel-Efficient Cars?
What they buy doesn’t always back up what they say. And for the customer, sometimes power still trumps environmental responsibility
business week story
“why can’t we poor usurers get more for loaning our money?
“
This is where I have a hole in my economic knowledge … but isn’t a lot of it driven by the United States government’s need not to pay you a lot for your money?
Keith, what does energy effeciency of appliances have to do with total energy consumption?
odograph: huh?
I wrote up a response on my site. I think the main reason that Social Security and global warming are different is that the latter has a so-called long left tail of marginal utility, whereas the damages from not reforming Social Security are relatively certain. Is this why you think Delong is consistent?
1) you are practicing the time-honored tradition of rejecting evidence in favor of theory.
2) is there more than semantics here?
OK, I’m just having fun in the few moments between software development tasks ..
1) search “California energy success” and you will find stories of the successful deflection of growth in energy consumption. i had heard of it as a success in added incentives (rebates) but as i do that search now i also see people claiming it as a simple market success (high california energy prices).
quien sabe
2) i’m asking to what degree borrowers (the market) sets the rates
Sorry I must have been muddy in my first comments, because:
1) yes, that was what I thought I had seen, comparisons of California’s reductions to changes elsewhere
2) yes, when I said something about the government not wanting to pay more, I recognized them as (in significant part) a non-market player
odo:
1) Yes, but my point is higher consumption elsewhere would be an argument *against* efficiency standards because
the energy they didn’t use was just bought and used elsewhere due to lower prices resulting from less Cal. demand.
2) huh? You were saying they were a major determinant of the interest rate.
1) that seems kind of arbitrary. if you make the claim that everything affects everything it seems like all comparisons are right out. are the Danes less efficient, because someone is using their exported energy?
bias: i am fractionally Danish myself
2) well i started by stating my lack of confidence in my own understanding. i seems to a non-economist that the US government has a strong ability to set our interest rates.
1) I don’t understand why you first said: “You would have to compare California’s reduction to changes elsewhere.” and then later claimed that such comparisons are. It strikes me as a dodge.
2) does the interest rate “set” by the fed affect those same auctions?
1) When did I say that? I didn’t. I said that higher increases in consumption elsewhere would be, contrary to what you said, evidence against your claim, not for it. I didn’t say such comparisons are impossible.
2) The US government is not the fed. When you said government, everyone assumed you meant insofar as the government borrows money. They fed is not the US government, even though it gets its power from the latter. Yes, the fed obviously has influence, but that’s not what everyone understood you to be referring to at the beginning.
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