On the Variability of Money and Real Output

The sharp break in the series around the late 1970s and early 1980s is evident

When does the sharp break begin? To me it looks like the large break begins around 77 – but that’s not 1977, it is “year 77″ in this series, where year 1 is 1879 (or 1880). That puts the beginning of the break around “actual year 1957″. And it looks like it is about year 85, maybe year 89, in the series when real income growth and money have “reunitied” (it’s early, I can’t think of the correct phrase), which puts it around “actual year 1969″. The “actual year 1980″ would be year 100 in the series, and by year 100 there seems to be 10 years or so where the two standard deviations are lower. So maybe it’s McChesney who deserves the credit.

after looking at the pdf, it appears to me that friedman is using a 10 yr lagging period std deviation for both the variables. that’s perfectly fine, but the data series is a little confusing. if it’s 10 yr lagging then the time series should start at 10 yr elapsed, if it’s leading it should end at 115 yr elapsed. this graph is puzzling to say the least.

After reading his article quickly, it seems that the “break” he is referring to is not the drop in volatility around 1960, but the loss of coordination between the two series in the late 70′s and early 80′s. At that point, the two series often move in opposite directions. What that means – I don’t know.

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