Maybe this paper will help. The more globalized parts of Mexico — most of all the north — have done extremely well since NAFTA passed. The biggest problems remain in the least globalized parts, most of all the south and big chunks of the interior. The paper has just appeared in the new NBER book on globalization and poverty.
Since the north of Mexico has done so well, that would seem to undercut the argument of some people (like Caplan) that all those Mexican immigrants need to stay here because it helps the poor. On a global scale, Mexicans are not poor.
Yeah, Neuvo Laredo is really going like gangbusters. Or like drug gangs. Very international.
cherry-picking much? I don’t think anyone had ever been disposed to question that the export-promotion zones would do well out of NAFTA. The opposition to the agreement was always based on the case that it would be bad for the rest of the country, and that the bads would outweigh the goods. Since the outcomes since 1994 are roughly as Peter Schaeffer describes them, you’re going to need something a bit better than this. Becoming “more globalised” is hardly an option for the south of Mexico – if it developed the key characteristic which has supported development in the North of Mexico, then it wouldn’t be South any more.
The biggest problems remain in Michigan and Ohio, but DeLong seems
especially callous toward American blue collar workers.
To Peter Schaeffer: you’re right that Mexico is above average by world standards, and that they’re capable of taking care of their own. But in your economic growth #s, you’ve cherry-picked your sample. All of the asian countries are significantly higher IQ than mexico, so it’s not at all surprising that they should grow faster. Chile (and to an even greater extent the US) is also higher IQ than mexico, as well as being freer economically. Only Venezuela is roughly comparable – and its per capita growth has been lower than mexico’s per your numbers.
I agree with other posts you’ve made though that illegal immigration is a serious problem. I think that’s another reason to favor free trade though – have you heard the quote “when goods can’t cross borders, armies will.”?
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