The Straight Talk from Market Prices

by on September 21, 2007 at 2:56 pm in Data Source | Permalink

According to the betting markets (at least, Ron Paul has officially passed John McCain in terms of the probability of winning the Republican nomination.  Amazing – however you read the tea leaves.

Thanks to Tim Groseclose for the pointer.

1 Mike Giberson September 21, 2007 at 3:41 pm

Betfair markets still favor McCain, modestly, over Paul.

In either case, and in both markets, the candidates are now substantial longshots. (The difference is that Paul has always been a longshot, and McCain was once considered the favorite.)

2 neil September 21, 2007 at 4:40 pm

Speaking of betting markets, National Journal has launched a fantasy betting market which runs on the same platform as Intrade. I would really like to see more ridicule of it, but it seems few people even realize why it’s a silly idea.

3 Anon September 21, 2007 at 8:08 pm

it all depends on the financial size of the market. if it doesn’t take much to boost Paul then his supporters easily do that for him.

Anyone who has spent any time on the internet knows that Paul has a spam brigade on the internet, mobbing Pajamas Media polls, etc.

4 Glen September 21, 2007 at 11:30 pm

You keep bringing up internet spam. In 88 Dr. Paul got 500,000 votes in the presidential election (those people still support Dr. Paul). He has 63,000 my space friends. He has 4,000,000 hits on search engines. The Pajama Media poll that Dr. Paul won every week until they removed his name again usually totaled 7-800 votes for Dr. Paul, harly spam. If we were to spam we would break the counters. He just went to 5% on the Gallop poll last week. Take a look at all the straw polls he’s won or placed 2nd of 3rd. Every rally accross the country draws over 1000 people. Get off the spam trip and realize there are a lot of us Ron Paul supporters out here, almost 1000 Meetup Groups with our Boots on the Ground organizing for upcoming presidential primaries with one goal in mind, to place as many delegates as we can starting at the precinct level.

5 jo September 22, 2007 at 2:11 am

to those equivocating these results, paul has steadily increased 1 point per month on intrade. that means by january he would be between 8-10 percent. those are good odds for a government hacking libertarian nobody fron coastal texas (to the press, that is). after 3rd quarter numbers come out on the 15th, paul’s continuallyly ascending candidacy will… continue to do just that.

6 Hei Lun Chan September 22, 2007 at 7:49 am


You had me until you write that over half of Paul’s support is 25 and under. Those people are not known for voting.

7 Brian September 22, 2007 at 8:17 am

Hei Lun Chan,

I agree – young folks aren’t known for voting. I have participated in past political movements with college age kids but there is something really different this time. It is tough to put into words and although I am not a religious person, the best way I can describe it is a spiritual awakening. In other words, those young kids aren’t just excited about a candidate they promise to vote for. They have deep concerns about the future of the economy, about the possibility of the draft being reinstated, about their civil liberties being stripped away. And Ron Paul doesn’t represent just a politician to vote for, but a hero that is championing their future. And I see the real fruits of that passion every day in the real world, where they work their tails off campaigning. Believe me, no one puts that much effort into something and then doesn’t vote!

The other point to consider is that even if those under 25 don’t vote (which as I said, I just can’t believe) – they are providing huge amounts of grassroots campaigning at the local level. They are the working army of believers, helping spread the message to older voters.

8 brian September 22, 2007 at 10:18 am

Then your daughter should be calmed by the fact that even thou he is pro life he believes this is not a federal issue and that it should be decided by the states. That means he will not enforce his strongly held belief because the constitution says “Congress shall make no law”. He delivered 4000 babies so he has more than a passing interest in the subject. That is integrity. Ron Paul is the anti-politician, instead of seeing what people want and being that person, he shows you who HE IS and asks for your support.

9 Travis September 22, 2007 at 12:47 pm

linda you should look up some more research on Ron Paul and Gold standard because I remember him saying on TV we shouldn’t go back to it but doing something else. I’m sure their a youtube video out there on it
but that doesn’t mean fans of the gold standard doesn’t support him but don’t get the two confused, see what the he actually says about it

10 Russ R September 22, 2007 at 1:01 pm

I wonder if an MTV duet of Ron Paul and Sean Paul singing “Legalize It” would help or hurt his campaign.

11 GoodneesOfFit September 22, 2007 at 2:07 pm

Paul’s stance on immigration makes him a non-starter for me.

12 Jamie Jackson September 22, 2007 at 3:14 pm

Unfortunately, no one can be told *what* the rEVOLution is. You have to see it for yourself.

13 English September 22, 2007 at 5:27 pm

Was just at the flea market supporting Ron. Pastors and others of deep religious faith respond favorably to his message of personal liberty and freedom from, to name one , the tyranny of tax exempt status obligations to the state for their churches to run. Not to mention the revisionism of the Bible that’s going on upsets them immensely. We brought cool water and spread the message good today. The bible in one hand and the constitution in the other: the most solid platform a candidate can have.
God bless,


14 EricFox September 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm

I am excited about Ron Paul as well.

We must no forget, though that for him or a man almost as good (issues wise), Tom Tancredo or any other good for the US (if there are many of them in the current crop) will need delegates at the RNC convention.


I am hoping there is time. We know the neocons will try to stack the deck. I don’t think it’s too early to think this over.


15 Barbara September 23, 2007 at 10:24 am

I have to chuckle when I read that the under 25 vote will not happen. I have three children that are 23, 20 and 18. All registered and ready to vote in both the primary and the election. In fact, my 18 year old knew and loved Ron Paul before anyone else and totally converted us all. What people don’t realize it that young people did not vote before because they felt that they really did not have a choice. Now they are excited and will vote. They also do not listen to the main stream news. They get the real news via the internet. They are more precocious then we were at their age. For that I will always love the internet. Ron Paul is the only republican that stands a chance against the Democrats. Go Ron, go Liberty and go Peace. Dr. Ron Paul 2008.

16 G September 24, 2007 at 3:13 am

The statement that Paul favors the gold standard isn’t the whole truth. He favors the denationalization of currency, like Hayek did. He thinks this would cause the market to once again select gold as its currency of choice. While I support the denationalization of money, I hope we don’t use gold again. Digging the stuff out of the ground just to pass it around seems silly.

17 Anonymous November 6, 2007 at 3:48 pm

Well he might have delivered Selena, but he wants no amnesty for the illegal immigrants already here. Also he wants to put an end to birthright citizenship. That might not help too much with the Latino vote. In my opinion the pros definitely out weigh the cons.

18 Christy November 18, 2007 at 2:22 am

Though I realize I might be chiming in late on this I wanted to respond to Harald’s concern about Ron Paul’s “global warming denial”. I ran across someone in my office who thought Ron Paul was in denial as well (I work for an environmental consulting firm), I told him to Google Ron Paul + Global Warming because I was fairly certain I’d never heard or read anything by Ron Paul outright denying he thought humans were the primary problem. When I did, I found the following statement taken from a You Tube video made directly by Ron Paul:

“Global temperatures have been warming since the Little Ice Age. Studies within the respectable scientific community have shown that human beings are most likely a part of this process. As a Congressman, I’ve done a number of things to support environmentally friendly policies. I have been active in the Green Scissors campaign to cut environmentally harmful spending, I’ve opposed foreign wars for oil, and I’ve spoken out against government programs that encourage development in environmentally sensitive areas, such as flood insurance.”

Even though I work in the environmental field, I myself am quite confused about the global warming debate. However, like Ron Paul, I would prefer to err on the side of caution. Besides, I’ve always been about keeping the earth nice!

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