The baseball playoffs begin today. (Go Red Sox!) But if you haven’t been following the 162-game season, you may risk sounding foolish around the water cooler.
Here’s how to sound like an expert: Research tells us that prediction markets yield accurate forecasts. Indeed, a prediction market forecast is likely smarter than any expert. Simply point your browser to your favorite prediction market, and make the following observations confidently around the water cooler:
- Note that the American League looks much stronger than the National League. (HT: Mike Giberson at Midas Oracle.)
- Sigh, while you say that "Once again the American League race looks like being the Red Sox or the Yankees."
- State emphatically that "the National League is anyone’s race. Heck, even the come-from-behind Phillies are a chance." (Say this as though you didn’t already know they were the betting favorites)
That’s it. You are now an expert. (How else do you think an Aussie can keep up a conversation about U.S. sports? I’ve been faking it for years… but shhh, don’t tell David Stern.)
I intensely dislike the NFL and football in general. My knowledge of the league and the sport is minimal at best. Nonetheless, it’s fairly easy to hide my ignorance in casual conversation. This is because most people aren’t really interested in having give-and-take discussions on sports, but mostly just want to express their own opinions. The more committed the fan, the less he wants to hear anything expect his own bloviating. He’s certainly not going to ask for a listener’s opinion. As a result, should I find myself in such a conversation the occasion “uh-huh” or “for sure” is all I ever need to say.
Football seems to bring out the worst in conversation. I heard a commentator on TV say once that, in order to win, a particular team (USC, I think) “had to outscore the other team.” Well, yeah. Somebody ought to tell Charlie Weiss. Faking it with baseball can be dangerous, though, as a conversation that starts out innocently enough can end up discussing the infield fly rule, a topic best addressed only by those who do understand it.
While I can appreciate that not everyone is a sports fan, saying that football is an easy game to discuss is ridiculous. Granted, NFL announcers are, on average, horrible! However, true fans can speak to any number of intricate pieces of each team, game, drive, play, etc. I assure you that anyone who actually understands the game would not talk at great length with some who only contributes:
“gotta run the ball, and stop the run”… “control the line of scrimmage”….
I swear, sports discussions on this board are almost laughable at times. But I did like the Madden quotations. He’s like a crazy old uncle that no one really understands but you love nonetheless.
I used this technique and did really well in my department’s bracket tournament. I didn’t win, but I outperformed 80% of the other players. Many of whom were far too emotionally attached to particular teams to be objective about it. It probably helped me that I knew very little about college basketball, including not even knowing what a “seed” was.
I also looked at intrade and won the most recent Oscar’s pool.
In other words, I agree.
Baseball is one of the few areas where prediction markets are not the best prediction mechanism. They are better than “expert guesses” but not ideal. Steve Levitt more or less embarrassed himself trying to analyze baseball with prediction markets in ’05 (I think he would admit that he embarrassed himself.)
The reason is that baseball is uncommonly predictable relative to other sports, and more germanely relative to other human pursuits in general. The playoffs are too small a sample size to rely on any predictor in baseball, but preseason computer projections (based on historical data) consistently outperform the preseason betting odds. I’m bullish on prediction markets, but this is just not the context in which to use them.
dan,
How long can that trend continue with you spreading the word about it?
pandora bracelet sale at pandorabraceletdiscount.com
Comments on this entry are closed.