Interpreting Tylerian Science Fiction

by on March 27, 2008 at 7:32 am in Economics | Permalink

Earlier this week Tyler wrote:

I was thinking of writing a science fiction story.  In this world human
capital is incredibly valuable.  Even if you lose all your wealth you
can earn back lots very quickly, at least if you are talented and
well-educated….The level of risk-taking is very high and capitalist enterprise starts to collapse…Production resumes only when a) managers precommit to costly drug addictions, so that they again fear pecuniary losses and b) shareholders find altruistic managers and also initiate
charitable contributions to India.  They threaten to cut off those
contributions if managers perform poorly.

Some of you were perhaps wondering what on earth this means.  (Recall my post on Tyler v. Alex.)  Perhaps I can help.  Here is a recent item from the NYTimes.

BlackRock, the publicly traded asset manager, and a hedge fund firm, Highfields Capital Management, are backing a new company seeking to raise $2 billion to buy delinquent residential mortgages.

Private National Mortgage Acceptance will be run by Stanford L. Kurland, former president of Countrywide Financial Corporation, the largest American home-loan provider, the companies said Monday in a statement.

Andrew March 27, 2008 at 7:41 am

References to Dog/Rush/Hayek (Salma). Alex

Rush the trio? Okay, I heretofore take Alex’ side on everything.

josh March 27, 2008 at 9:36 am

try saying it tie-LEE-rian

K. Williams March 27, 2008 at 9:55 am

This is awesome: “I helped create this disaster — who would better know how to take advantage of it?” There is nothing you can do on Wall Street that will keep you from getting a new job.

jb March 27, 2008 at 5:08 pm

I was thinking about the preconditions for Tyler’s world: Human capital is rare and valuable, so those with it can easily recoup any capital loss.

That looks not like the developed world, but like the developing world. I work with microfinance institutions, which are major consumers of talented people from poor countries, and they’ll pay pretty much any price for skilled managers and executives, and sometimes not find it at any price. No one with lots of human capital and willingness to live there will ever be poor or unemployed for long.

jb March 29, 2008 at 12:25 am

I’m not so sure about this. The deals that I’ve seen being offered try to sell the deal on the ‘benefit’ that the cost of living is so low in India or China. Yeah. We’re not buying. If I’m moving to China, you’re going to pay me significantly more than I make in the United States. So this ‘at any price’ business doesn’t sound right to me. The problem is people who are talented would rather just get jobs in the US, and they can.

You’re not the chosen market. The chosen market is people from those countries, who want to live well there rather than try to make it in the developed world. Since your last sentence is largely true, the pool of human capital is small, so those who stay do fit Tyler’s premise quite well.

Since you wouldn’t consider retiring to The Gambia, you couldn’t be paid enough to spend your career there on a salary handsome for the local market. But someone well-educated and planning on retiring there, and thus willing to work there, will find jobs easy to come by.

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