Here you will find regular updates on prediction markets, with the blog-like news function here. You’ll see there that the CFTC is requesting public comments on how to regulate "event contracts." The site is launched by these people.
I thank Chris F. Masse for the pointer.
…i wasn’t scared until I realized that the CFTC is a government agency. Where’s the appropriate address to send them a “go the hell away, we don’t want you to play our game (and sure as heck not to set the rules)” letter?
I am eager for more (and deeper) markets in various events related to climate change. There are a few token ones at Intrade.com, but they don’t really settle anything.
But it would be great if we could look at the market’s forecast of global mean temperature (or sea level, etc.) in the year 2030. Then we would know what the “consensus” really is. (BTW I am aware that some of the leading skeptics of AGW have declined public wagers, so for all I know maybe the consensus really is on Al Gore’s side.)
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