Now over 80 percent in the betting markets. And here is the gossip behind that. Electorally this is a very effective pick I think (if indeed it is true), though it is hard for me to imagine a President with five (young) kids.
Addendum: No, that wording isn’t quite right. How should I put this…?
Second addendum: Her stock in the market is now plummeting, now down to about 35, as there is a report she is still in Alaska. I am told that last night Pawlenty was up to about 85 but then fell dramatically as well. It has been a wild ride in this market. And now Palin is back up again, etc. Whatever. Now it’s at 96. Now confirmed.
More: Credible signals, in one link or less.
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Looks like the betting markets were almost completely wagged by the headlines, eh? I’d mark this down as a huge failure for prediction markets.
ABCNews says she’s in Alaska, not on a plane to Ohio:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/mccain-vp-conte.html
A person, you can still ride it up from 59 to 100. She was trading at 2 at 2 am this morning, with Pawlenty in the 70s. I agree: a huge prediction-market failure.
It’s not a failure. All these do is aggregate existing information, of which there’s probably been very little. Maybe Obama’s speech is responsible for the shift in McCain’s thinking.
I think the veepstakes has been an interesting demonstration of a particular case where prediction markets fail. Since the McCain camp didn’t leak, and presumbaly didn’t trade on InTrade either, the market didn’t reflect any legitimately new private information. All it did was reflect the best, debiased consensus, which is good enough but not powerfully predictive. It sort of reminds me of the obstacles to using prediction markets for forecasting events like hurricnase or earthquakes. Except for maybe the guys on the storm chase flights, nobody has truly private information on the path of the hurricane. All the market is doing is reflecting the median expectation.
I have my money split between John Kasich and Meg Whitman. Regardless of the choice, I am very impressed that they’ve kept a lid on who it is. The Dems couldn’t keep a secret if none of them knew what it was!
I was so hoping that it would be Romney (I’m a democrat). Palin is a very exciting pick and to me it indicates that McCain’s campaign is cognizant that they have to take big risks if they want to win in this electoral environment. The combined ages of the democratic and republican tickets are now within 4 years of each other.
Spin: Since McCain knows he’s going down, he’s giving Palin national exposure for future national campaigns.
(I actually think she’s fine(*), and I’ve heard she’s nice … but while the corruption-busting is good, it is still a light resume.)
* – deliberately ambiguous
Any relation to Michael Palin? Maybe we can get Biggus Dickus as Secretary of State.
How is this an “electorally effective” pick?. Alaska’s electoral votes were in jeopardy? If Obama isn’t qualified to be president how is she qualified to assume the role should something happen to McCain at age 72?
She is an unknown.
Can’t wait for the debates.
McCain confirms to me once again, notwithstanding his academic record at the Naval Academy, that he’s a grade A moron. He aims to outdo the Democrats at their own game, is that right? Romney is too safe and boring a pick the Maverick needs to really razzle and dazzle ‘em at the New York Times. No, really, the Republican party now can exploit some ethnic group/gender politics of its own!
No downside for picking her.
I’ve watched some youtubes of interviews, and she’s sharp.
She’ll bring some women into the McCain camp (how much difference would 1-2% make?)
Oh, she’s smokin’ hot, too. Which of course doesn’t matter.
A prediction market is a failure if there are other available information sources that did a better job. If you want to argue that this prediction market was a failure, it is not enough to say that the outcome was a surprise to the market. You also have to identify someone who wasn’t surprised.
John Roberts at CNN makes HUGELY sexist comment asking if McCain will cause Palin’s down-syndrome child to now not have a mother! Disgusting!!! @ about 810am PT on CNN
I can’t believe Mccain chose Sarah Palin,he talks all this crap about experience what experience does she have? I feel sorry for America what if something happened to McCain (if he becomes president ) and she has to step in. What is she, Paris Hilton? She’s a govenor and she doesn’t have nothing on Biden or Hillary. I don’t think any other women should have been chosen unless they meet the standards of Hillary; she doesn’t even come close. I am so blown away by this, I thought McCain was smarter than that. How is he going to make good decision for our country if he can’t even choose a better vice-presidential candidate?
(wrote at the same time as jasmin, same thought)
I’m certainly looking forward to Obama cum Biden attacking her inexperience. The Obamanauts are already unhinged. This is going to be fun!
Her husband works for BP.
More proof McCain is a prostitute for oil companies.
this woman is a glorified soccer mom. she’s has only a Mass comm/ journalism degree. she is getting booed right now, they just want HRC voters.
for the good, this sucks, mccain just had melenoma, he could die any day, i dont want a PTA mom to run this country. and the talk about celebrity, this woman was a beauty queen.
She named her kid Trig! TRIG! Prediction markets are at 64% that the next one will be named Cosecant.
Oh and yeah it’s a good choice. Good grab for the Hillary supporters and she actually knows something about energy policy. Cleaned out some shady stuff in the state government, too. Has stood up to stodgy old Republicans like Ted Stevens.
LOL @ Ophelia who focuses on the seasonal job of Palin’s husband and completely ignores the fact that Palin raised taxes on the oil industry.
A bigger problem comes from the energy credits she wanted to give consumers in Alaska. It’s such a misguided, anti-conservation proposal that it’s now being pushed by Obama.
Very interesting pick for sure. Let’s see what this does for McCain in the polls. It will be an intriguing next two months!
http://kreuzer33.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/sarah-palin-selected-as-john-mccains-running-mate/
Why do the Dem’s keep bringing up the Mayor of 8000 thing: its not the job she has now and even that liitle job is more executive experience than Biden and Obama and McCain have together.
Really, inexperience is more of a problem in someone who is a heartbeat away from the presidency that someone who would be actually in the presidency?
Why would women vote for Palin? Shes pro-life. All politicians claim to be against corruption, yet Palin is currently under investigation for abuse of power. This is a reactionary pick to Biden, and further proves that mccain has no balls, might as well call him grandma….
You have to admit that Sarah Palin is pretty hot (remember she was in the Ms. Alaska Pageant) and MUCH BETTER on the eyes than Joe Biden. Oh and wait until you see the bikini pics!!! NOT BAD for a mother of 5.
http://www.jlaforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=5055328
“its not the job she has now and even that liitle job is more executive experience than Biden and Obama and McCain have together.”
Except it’s been demonstrated that that’s not really true. Executive experience does not come soley from being a mayor/governor/whatever.
Does Palin= Harriet Miers? Alas, no do overs here. I agree Biden will have a hard time focusing his usual bluster at her in a debate. The choice may prevent a post convention bounce, but he may lose the election.
McCain picked Palin because Paris Hilton isn’t 35 yet.
If McCain really was sincere in attacking Obama’s lack of experience, what was he smoking when he picked a mayor of a town of 9000 who been a governor of a state of 670,000 for 2 years?
If the Mile High Stadium were in Nome, it would mean that Obama spoke to about 12.5% of her constituency last night.
Translation – She meets the political requirements: a mother,anti-abortionist, NRA member with a Downs baby
and 4 siblings.
Conclusion:I hope she read a whole lot of books after the kids went to sleep or America could be seeing a candidate, if it were possible that is even more of a yahoo, that our current president. And she could be a 71 year old’s heartbeat away from being our President.
I see where Alaska libertarians think she is one of them. Is she a libertarian?
I think it is a very good choice. If I were an american citizen, I would not hesitate: McCain+Palin.
Santiago, Granada (Spain)
http://opinionciudadano.blogspot.com/
The experience thing all the dems are crowing about is bull. Obama has NONE and they want him NO heartbeats away from the presidency while Biden has one year of experience doing all the wrong things repeated 36 times. Great choice for McCain. Can’t wait for plagiarist Joe to to step into his own mouth debating this woman.
I see lots of people saying Palin is a great choice because she makes other people more likely to vote for the ticket, but no one saying that makes them morely to vote for the ticket.
Palin is immune to criticism from Biden or Obama about her inexperience — glass houses, after all — but that won’t stop ordinary voters from attacking her qualifications in one-on-one kitchen table arguments, water cooler debates and blog comments. This may however lead to a backlash among women voters already embittered about double standards during a long brutal primary season. Sneeringly calling her a soccer mom will surely not go over well with women who are soccer moms, universally convinced that their organizational, planning, and decision-making skills are underappreciated.
The best part of this, from McCain’s point of view, is that this backlash is entirely out of the Obama camp’s control. Even if they keep a tight rein on their surrogates and issue strict orders to their campaigns to be respectful of Palin, they can’t put a lid on the kitchen table debates all over the country. A husband who sneers, a wife who says nothing but grits her teeth… one more potential protest vote.
Obama is going to have to kiss up to Hillary a lot more now, and make her a bigger front and center part of his campaign. All he wanted from her was a ringing endorsement at the convention and then, thanks, we’ll take it from here. Nice words aside, an ongoing prominent role for her was not at all what he had planned, among other things because it creates an opening for the Republicans to run endless clips of her criticizing Obama during the primaries.
A risky choice if she falls apart in the glare of the spotlight or has skeletons in her closet. Presumably they vetted carefully and spent a long time watching tapes of her speeches and debates.
Here’s a Wife married to a union member???? Well John McCain as a Republican crossed our union picket line 10 years ago, more than any other republican during the 11 weeks we where out on the street. Not one democratic crossed our picket line.
John McCain has no repect for Unions.
Great TV interview this morning with Sarah Palin as she said “Before I accept the Vice President nomination, I need to know what the Vice president does, what is jthe job?”. That is just scary. Let the show begin!
Wow, why are so many people making a big deal about Palin having 5 kids? If it were a male candidate who had 5 kids, there would not be any comments. As governor, she has already proven she can manage work/family balance. She seems dedicated to her career and her family appears to support her. We should be admiring her, not criticizing her for this accomplishment.
I recently saw (today)a interview on C-span that was taped on 2-28-08 and when Sarah Palin was asked about her family there she replied that she had 4 children with no mention about her pregnancy or reference to a new addition.
If she is pro life then why would she not mention this when specifically asked. I wonder about this.
Mybe because she figured her pregnancy answered the question.
Wikipedia reported she had her 5th child in February of 08.
People please she is a Governor she has people to take care of the kids the house etc. She cannot be compared to everyday working people with that many kids and a baby with health issues to possiblely compare too . We are having a hard time putting food on our tables buying a tank of gas let alone afford a babysitter. Now it is clear this man turn a century old today and has lost his mind.
Well, then at the time of the interview, she must have been ready to pop! Maybe she didn’t feel the need to state the obvious.
odograph,
The beauty of this pick is that it gets the Dems to bring up the experience issue and keeps that conversation going. This can only be good for McCain. In general, the VP is inconsequential to the decision – and the Dems want to focus now on his biggest weakness… brilliant.
CJS, with the risk that it highlights McCain’s age, and recent illnesses?
This shows how racist Sarah Palin is: http://tinyurl.com/6el7ux
As with any choice McCain could have made, Sarah Palin comes with positives and negatives. Will her presence solidify the Republican base? Maybe a little. Will she help bring independents to McCain? I can’t see how, really. Women? Someone else pointed out that women would have to be pretty shallow to say “she’s a woman so I’ll vote for her even if she favors everything I hate”. Could he have made a better choice? Probably.
Most of the arguments in her favor being posted here sound like rationalizations to me. In the end the VP choices will be more important as indications of how the candidates make decisions, and that favors Obama more than McCain. The VP candidates themselves are getting a lot of attention now, but they won’t be major factors come November unless one of them goes off the rails.
BREAKING THE GLASS CEILING … THE DEMOCRATS ARE RUNNING SCARED …
Sarah Palin having been a mayor, and a governor with an 80% approval rating, while raising 5 children, is more experienced and more qualified to manage this country than Barack Obama … who was a community organizer, and spent half of his short time in the senate campaigning for President. Democrats brag about the success of their convention, when the only thing notable about it was the size of the crowd, and the fireworks. Obama’s speech was the same old platitudes and grand promises, with broad generalities on how how he would deliver. Elect McCain/Palin in November !!!
Well, as I’ve more or less said above, I think Palin highlights Obama’s experience. But then, that might be my perspective: I agree when Obama says the Bush government has walked (or worse) over the Constitution. That Obama has taught Constitutional law before saying that reinforces it for me. It also reinforces, for me, the idea that Obama wants to take the Executive Branch in the right direction.
Maybe the Constitution is the key here in my differences with those above who think Palin has more experience as an “Executive.” Well, if they want someone to “run things” in the sense of a small town Mayor, or a small state Governor, that might be their perspective.
It isn’t mine.
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