Betting markets in everything

by on November 27, 2008 at 2:28 pm in Economics | Permalink

Markets on whether InTrade will continue to exist.  The numbers are here.

These markets are run by…InTrade.

I’ve been looking for markets in the probability of an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange (did the probability of a detonation just go up?) but I have to find one.

I thank Blake Johnson for the pointer.

Tyler Cowen November 27, 2008 at 2:40 pm

Yes comments are back up and running…

Pablo Stafforini November 27, 2008 at 6:36 pm

Applying the Copernican principle, and assuming Intrade has existed since June 2001, we can derive the following estimates:

June ’09: 92.7%
Dec. ’09: 87.2%
June ’10: 82.4%
Dec. ’10: 78.1%

On the assumption that the other empirical evidence available is of little significance, we should expect Intrade prices to reflect these figures if prediction markets are generally reliable.

Seamus November 27, 2008 at 7:10 pm

The current bids are
JUN09 93.2
DEC09 90.1
JUN10 87.0
DEC10 77.1

Looks like most people are applying the Copernican principle.

Barkley Rosser November 27, 2008 at 9:46 pm

Oh dear, this market looks like something cooked up by people who just went to see Synechdoche, NY!

As for Indo-Pak nuclear exchange, not up that much I would say, as someone who has stayed at the Taj Mahal Palace and Tower Hotel as well as having eaten at the Leopold Cafe. This is not a Kashmir related event. “Deccan Mujahedin” are clearly Muslim, but probably Indian and not all that Kashmir connected.

Eliezer Yudkowsky November 28, 2008 at 1:03 am

…is there some reason why this isn’t as silly as it looks, or is this a joke?

meter November 28, 2008 at 9:33 am

Barkley Rosser is correct – this is not Kashmir-related. There is plenty of Hindu-Muslim-Sikh tension throughout the entire country.

meter November 28, 2008 at 11:24 am

Streetwalker, I wouldn’t disagree with what you wrote. I imagine increased tensions are being fomented from cross-border elements. I only meant to highlight the notion that this has nothing to do with Kashmir.

Barkley Rosser November 29, 2008 at 10:05 am

Streetwalker,

If it is ISI, then it is, as you put it, “Talibanized elements” not under official control. Indeed, if this is the case, and it does seem that this group arrived by sea, it might be as much a strike against the new Zardari government that seems to be attacking more vigorously and working with the US covertly against the Taliban and al Qaeda in Waziristan.

OTOH, there are more Muslims in India than in Pakistan, they have become increasingly alienated, and the Deccan is a geographical region spread across eight states of India.

Barkley Rosser December 1, 2008 at 12:42 pm

Streetwalker,

I do not agree that Zardari is a puppet show.
However, it is now clear that this operation did
come out of Pakistan, probably an offshoot of LeT,
which was originall supported by the ISI, although
officially banned in 2002. I would note that it is
an offshoot, as the LeT has as its ideology only
attacking Indian troops in Kashmir. These folks
clearly were in violation of that.

It remains unclear what, if any, links there are
between this group and any sub-group of the ISI.
But it does look to probably be linked to Kashmir,
as much to oppose the more pacifistic policy of
Zardari and to undermine it and his government (and
that of the more moderate government of Singh in India),
than anything else.

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