by Tyler Cowen
on December 19, 2008 at 6:24 am
in Data Source
Here is my source. Call it crude extrapolation, or say that we should have been running a surplus for the last eight years, but in any case this is where we are at.
Why run the projection out only 40 years? Why not 300 years? How many years backward can this extrapolation be run before it has no similiarity to history?
“or say that we should have been running a surplus for the last eight years”
Policies have changed in the past 8 years, namely how Medicare Part D contributes to this.
Anything for how this looks like ~2000/1? I’m guessing moving up, but without that scary curve starting in 2022.
Call it crude extrapolation, or say that we should have been running a surplus for the last eight years, but in any case this is where we are.
Are you from the south?
”My guess is that now that Democrats control which programs get federal funding, you won’t hear Dick Cheney and the conservative blogosphere proclaiming that “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter”.”
Kinda like the moment the Democrats had the next four years in the bag they did a 180 and told us not to worry about the deficit?
Why run the projection out only 40 years? Why not 300 years?
The people who will be 80 in 2048, and thus likely collecting pensions and running up medical bills given current government policies, have already been born. As indeed have the people who will be 41 and thus of working age. This is not true of 2308.
This is not to defend any other aspect of the extrapolation. But generally, if you wonder why someone projected a few decades but not a few hundred years, demographics is usually the answer.
The graph doesn’t predict future reality, it predicts future pain.
Search the Internet for hiding assets, offshore accounts, don’t expect Social Security or Medicare, etc. There are plenty of articles even in the mainstream press.
“this is where we are at?” That is surprisingly poor grammar.
I want one thing for Christmas. I want Arne Duncan, Obama’s new education chief to promise to do everything he can to make sure our children grow up knowing how to read a log plot.
The madness must end.
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