Portable fiscal policy question multi-pak

by on December 8, 2008 at 7:06 am in Economics | Permalink

When assessing any proposed fiscal stimulus, ask yourself the following questions:

1. Will more debt ruin my country and cause its economy to crumble or explode?

2. Is this project worth doing in its own right?

3. Will more than 53 percent or more of the expenditures come on-line in the next nine months?

4. Will the program actually target unemployed resources?

5. Has fiscal policy already acted to protect previously planned levels of state and local expenditure?

If the answer to #1 is no, proceed if you can either answer "yes" to #2 or if you can answer "yes" to #3-5 together.  On related issues, here is a very good piece by Hall and Woodward.

Tyler Cowen December 8, 2008 at 7:13 am

Testing…

Tyler Cowen December 8, 2008 at 7:41 am

Thanks Grant, I have corrected…

Andrew December 8, 2008 at 9:05 am

I haven’t heard this one, but considering I thought of 30 seconds ago maybe it’s not great.

How ’bout building homes in New Orleans, using Hurriquake nails and many, many concrete pillars of course.

a student of economics December 8, 2008 at 10:06 am

That’s an excellent check list.

Hall and Woodward are well worth reading. They are very smart and we could do worse than simply following their advice to the letter.

bob mcmanus December 8, 2008 at 10:28 am

Of course, a corollary of my 10:24 point, if it is one, is that temporary sunsetted fiscal stimulus will not have as large a stimulus effect as relatively permanent committments.

Selfreferencing December 8, 2008 at 11:48 am

Why does Keynes think that the assumptions of classical economics fail to apply under conditions of less-than-full employment when they apply under conditions of full employment? I don’t understand the argument.

I think the thought is this: (1) The economy gets into a state of uncertainty (not risk), (2) this causes people with a high propensity to save to hoard/save rather than consume or spend, (3) this causes the level of interest necessary to attract investment high, (4) the higher level of interest requires that capital make more profits, (5) but under the conditions they have to cut back production to make returns to a smaller number of investors and this involves laying workers off, (6) which in turn creates involuntary unemployment (sticky nominal wages, efficiency wage theory, etc. all help to create the conditions in step 6, right?).

So it’s not the following: IF more than full unemployment, THEN the assumptions of classical economics don’t apply – as if this were a CAUSAL explanation. It’s just a correlation. The assumptions of classical economics stop applying because conditions of UNCERTAINTY somehow suspend them. Is this the idea? That classical economic assumptions only apply when people can take rational risks, i.e. they have some idea of the probabilities of certain outcomes?

Bob Knaus December 8, 2008 at 12:39 pm

The plan could work… precisely because so few projects are “shovel ready.”

What we’re seeing is a service sector recessiion, led by the financial sector. Lots of people with financial analysis skills out of work, along with their support staff. Let’s put the financial whizzes to work figuring out whether or not the projects are actually worthwile. Hopefully, these geniuses will do a better job than they did with mortgage securities. Whether they do or no, it will keep them and the rest of the service sector busy for a year.

By then, either the recession will be over, or it won’t matter.

Joshua Holmes December 8, 2008 at 11:11 pm

Real economic growth takes time. We need to focus on buiding infrastructure and increasing productivity/improving efficiency. Lowering the cost of doing business.

You’re not lowering the cost of doing business. You’re shifting it to the taxpayer. Worse yet, the taxpayers will either pay interest on it forever or suffer inflation for it. TANSTAAFL, man.

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The first day I met you

We have been dating for three years since the first day we met each other. Although time past so fast, I still remember the day I met you.
I was walking down street alone, and you were riding a bike go through. You looked so happy and there was a big smile on your face. Suddenly, I also began to feel good, maybe for your smile. I have never seen such sunshine smile before. I stopped walking and watched you to leave. I kept on walking, but was very happy. I came in a jewelry store and just watched around. To my surprise, I found you also in the same store and picked a pendant. I walked towards you intentionally and found the one you pick was much like the one I saw in the internet. A pendant with Pandora chain and pandora charms . It was so cool. I saw you buy it and was about to leave. I went after you and said hello to you, even now I still have no idea where is the courage. You looked at me and said hello, too. Just to be polite, I think.
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As a perfectionist, she is always strict with herself. No matter what she Nothing better

does, she will try her best. But we also know, there is something that no matter how hard we try, we can’t do it well.
So she is very upset and begins to lose faith to herself. She has no idea about doing it well, when she meets something new. She even has no courage to face it. She is always trying to escaping. But she also knows it’s no good.
After college graduation, she came into the fashion world by accident. She has knew nothing about it before, now all is new to her. She does not know how to do with the job-stylist. Every day she looks at those clothes and accessories a trance. She is a normal girl and not interested in such things.
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In the quiet night, bathe in the romantic music, to tell you what I want to said in my heart but never said before, may I?
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Yes, expect love miss care thoughtfulness cherish, it seem there is nothing more to give you, so I am ashamed.
But I think I should cherish you and cherish your everything.I cherish that chance that we choose the pandora charms I asked why, later I explain to myself: I must owe you a debt of predestinated love, now it will arrive deadline, I should return to you.
So I always have a expect, an unexpressed feeling, I am really missing you. Are you missing me too?

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