Business cycle fact of the day

by on January 7, 2009 at 10:23 am in Current Affairs | Permalink

The TED spread is at 1.34, sharply lower. (improved)

Here is more on the progress of other economic indicators.  None of it is sign of recovery, rather it represents progress toward having a "normal bad recession" rather than a major financial crisis.

1 MW January 7, 2009 at 11:10 am

So, do we still need to mortgage half of the US for a stimulus package?

Sorry for the acerbic comment, but if it does look like banks will start trying to make money again, then treasury rates will go up right when all the bonds are issued to pay for the stimulus package. Some things make sense, like helping states with budget issues, but hopefully the Republicans are successful in getting everybody to stop and think before we spend a trillion dollars.

2 Robert Olson January 7, 2009 at 1:48 pm

Oh, don’t worry: There’s still plenty of time for consumers to deleverage and go back to the entire market being scared witless.

3 meter January 7, 2009 at 3:06 pm

Yes, those tax-(cut-for-the-rich)-and-spend Republicans are notorious for their balanced budgets.

4 MostlyAPragmatist January 7, 2009 at 4:41 pm

“But the GOP spent a lot” does not seem like a good argument for more spending by the current Congress.

No, CJS, but it’s a good reason to think that MW’s objection to the fiscal stimulus is primarily politically motivated.

It is true that, as the eminently reasonable and completely non-political Tyler Cowen has said, there is no convincing evidence for fiscal stimulus. I actually believe him–I don’t think there is any evidence that will convince Tyler Cowen fiscal stimulus will work. However, I also don’t think Tyler’s belief is falsifiable. In a historical science like macroeconomics, it is always possible to find alternate explanations for events that support your adversaries’ arguments. However, the eminently reasonable and entirely apolitical Tyler Cowen is relying on his expertise as a macroeconomist and historian to make his judgements so we should trust him. 😉

5 meter January 8, 2009 at 7:16 am

You might ask yourself why Republicans have suddenly found religion. Now in particular vs 2 years ago for example.

6 Minthis Hills January 10, 2009 at 4:31 am

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