Betting markets in everything

by on May 31, 2009 at 6:41 am in Medicine | Permalink

A Buckinghamshire man diagnosed with terminal
cancer is to collect a second winning payout of £5,000 after betting he
would stay alive.

Jon Matthews, 59, from Milton Keynes, was
diagnosed with mesothelioma, a cancer linked to asbestos, in 2006 and
told he had months to live.

He placed two bets, each with a £100 stake at odds of 50/1, that he would be alive in June 2008 and in June 2009.

A third wager will earn him a further £10,000 if he lives until 1 June 2010.

The widower will collect his second lot of £5,000 winnings on Monday.

The full story is here and I thank Leonard Monasterio for the pointer.  Of course you are implicitly betting on your life each time you make an investment or a long-range plan.

Ward May 31, 2009 at 8:15 am

Those who fear that the insurance industry will abuse the use of DNA testing should take note…so should the insurance industry.

ceg May 31, 2009 at 10:35 am

From Milton Keynes? Ironic.

Kyle May 31, 2009 at 11:09 am

The moral hazard here seems to be welfare improving.

Anonymous May 31, 2009 at 12:18 pm

‘Of course you are implicitly betting on your life each time you make an investment or a long-range plan.’

And here in a nutshell is why most Americans are unable to grasp why they have a ruling class – not everything is merely me, me, me. Not the DuPonts or Rockefellers or even such relative newcomers as the Bushes or Kennedies are interested in answering questions about their long term investments.

mulp May 31, 2009 at 3:41 pm

Here’s the bet millions of Americans are faced with: at what year do I begin drawing unemployment? For someone who is 62 and unemployed, delaying drawing on Social Security is a similar bet, but much more complicated, with far more money at stake.

doctorpat May 31, 2009 at 10:36 pm

The moral hazard here seems to be welfare improving.

The moral hazard affecting the sick man perhaps. I wouldn’t want to make the same bet if the other party was Tony Soprano.

a June 1, 2009 at 9:08 am

I have no problem with a person betting that he will survive; I do question the morals of the person taking the other side of the wager. But I’m probably in the minority, at least here at MR.

Steve Sailer June 1, 2009 at 5:47 pm

I had assumed that this post is just a scam to get the highest paying Google Ads word “mesothelioma” into a post, but then I don’t see any Google Ads.

Scamsters, take note, however!

Oliver Morton June 2, 2009 at 11:45 am

I’m pretty sure this is exactly how life insurance is managed on Luna in Heinlein’s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.

Tanstaafl!

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Matthew January 17, 2011 at 5:46 am

I guess he was very proud of him and that bet he made.I guess there should be more people as lucky as he was.He shot two rabbits with one shot.He lived and earned some money too.USA casinos

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But it is not surprising that a convention, in an absolute view of things so arbitrary, should have its weak points. It is its precariousness which creates no small part of our contemporary problem

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existing knowledge of the facts which will influence the yield of the investment, and that it will mathematical expectation. In point of fact, all sorts of considerations enter into the market valuation which are in no way relevant to the prospective yield.

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