by Tyler Cowen
on July 31, 2009 at 10:41 am
1. Motley Fool podcast, by me.
2. Sean Wilentz on Lincoln.
3. Chess players play the "beauty contest" game.
4. The Robot Gamelan Orchestra.
5. Markets in everything, a new use for pigeon blood, the link is safe for work but not for everybody.
6. Which public health interventions work?
“A 20-year-old man originally from Sichuan and identified by the surname Dong…”
First name Leong? Goes by the alias “Silver.”
3. The Chess Beauty Contest was fascinating. My assumptions going in where that (1) Chess players are much better at backwards induction than regular people, and (2) that they would therefore trivially converge on 0.
According to the link, both of my assumptions are wrong. “Excellent” chess players do not look further ahead; rather, they do are better at finding good moves based on about the same degree of looking ahead. Given that, the second choice shouldn’t be surprising, which is that chess players are not more rational when it comes to the Beauty Contest game that the general public.
I was amused to find that the Grand Masters actually picked an average of 34 in the Beauty Contest game. That basically boils down to looking only one move ahead!
I would pay money to see the result of the beauty contest for professional poker players, who are probably more adept at game theory than chess players. Chess players play the board more than poker players play the cards. I would be very interested in the thinking of those people.
Not only that, but they make up the costs, and when they can’t render them rhetorically, they make them a reality and then claim you need to pay for them.
For example, somehow it is my problem that Medicare is going bankrupt. “We obviously have to pay for everyone’s healthcare, and since we do, we must control their choices because they impose costs on all of us.” Or, somehow, I’m imposing costs on everyone else because the government decides to bail out banks. “Banks suck at trading, and since we have to support the banks, we must regulate traders.” Etcetera.
Though I don’t understand all of the details of your question, I think I know what you’re getting at.
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