What tells you more about the Sotomayor nomination, all of the chatter and debate in the MSM over her "controversial" remarks or the single number from intrade: bids at 98,5, i.e. an estimated probability of confirmation of 98.5% (as of July 14, 11:12 pm EST)?
Loyal-reader Jim Ward writes:
Do reporters and news Agencies even know to check the betting markets? Or do they just ignore it, because “X sure to happen, nothing to see” is not a story?
Or they don’t want to seem biased, and have to provide 2 sides to every story…Why not just throw Intrade odds into every story as an addendum?
I'm actually amazed at how far prediciton markets have come. In Entrepreneurial Economics I wrote:
…perhaps one day, instead of quoting an expert, the
New York Times editorial section will refer to the latest quote on "health
care plan A" available in the business pages.
At the time, I didn't think that day would be just a few years in the future. Admittedly, we are not quite there yet but during the last election it was common for media outlets to refer to the prediction markets. I think this trend will continue. Can futarchy be far behind?