*When Brute Force Fails*

by on September 15, 2009 at 7:28 am in Law | Permalink

That is the new and excellent book by Mark Kleiman and the subtitle is How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment.

The reader learns many interesting facts.  In 1974 the average burglary resulted in about four days behind bars (that's the average sentence adjusted by the chance of being caught).  The average 1974 burglary yielded about $320 (in today's dollars), which amounts to about $80 a day payment for time behind bars.  Even forgetting about the fixed costs of getting a criminal record, or a longer criminal record, that screams out to me: "It isn't worth it!"

Today, for burglary, the average return per day in jail is $22.  That is one reason why crime has gone down but the real question is why crime has not fallen even more.

Many burglars are not risk-averse or they underestimate their chances of being caught.

There are many excellent bits and segments in this book.

Steve R September 15, 2009 at 8:06 am

What about opportunity cost? Many burglars are desparate people with nothing to lose. Four days behind bars might be a positive compared to their normal accomodations. Also, don’t forget the signaling benefits. Not all social circles consider a criminal record a bad thing.

Floccina September 15, 2009 at 8:46 am

I think that restitution should be the default punishment for property crimes.

Vehical Driver September 15, 2009 at 8:59 am

Dope heads who need money for a fix aren’t known for doing a lot of critical thinking. An addict will steal from their own family to buy more drugs. They are thinking purely in the short term “How am I going to buy more drugs”, not some elaborate economic calculation.

Also, it is important to remember that average jail times for the United States are just about meaningless. In Detroit, for example, home burglary are not investigated nor are they punished (assuming that it was a simply burglary and not armed robbery or something!), the police won’t even bother come to your house to take a report (you have to go to the police station). For all practical purposes, burglary has been decriminalized – the only real deterrent to burglary is self defense (almost universal gun ownership, and pitbull ownership). In one of the Oakland County suburbs of Detroit, in contrast, a burglary conviction can get you years in prison! Averages are useless in reviewing U.S. crime statistics. There is just too much variation in crime and punishment depending on your location.

Or perhaps burglars are just showing “irrational exuberance” in the market.

Alger September 15, 2009 at 10:39 am

“The average 1974 burglary yielded about $320 (in today’s dollars), which amounts to about $80 a day payment for time behind bars. Even forgetting about the fixed costs of getting a criminal record, or a longer criminal record, that screams out to me: “It isn’t worth it!”"

This screams to me that Tyler has never tried to pay bills on a couple of part-time no-benefit minimum-wage jobs.
$7.25/hr x 10hrs/day < $80 a day

babar September 15, 2009 at 11:16 am

maybe urban crime in the 70s and 80s was just a bubble and when it popped crime rates collapsed.

Gabe September 15, 2009 at 11:46 am

1. $7.25/hr x 10hrs/day < $80 a day
2. There is a wide distribution of probabilities of getting caught. A skilled burglar can work for years without capture. A unskilled burglar is too dumb to accurately estimate his probability of getting caught.

If your options are to make $70 a day at Mcdonalds or steal stuff then you have to figure in that you will be paying payroll taxes right off the bat plus other withholding. If you steal some stuff you can evade payroll taxes. If you go to jail 4 days then you are also getting free meals/workout equipment/libraries and networking opportunities. They can discuss various techniques with people in the same line of work, learn about the most frequent errors that criminals make and then try to improve their methods by eliminating those simple mistakes. They can also learn about the legal system and figure out better ways to play the lawyer/evidence/court game.

athEIst September 15, 2009 at 12:32 pm

that scores for blacks were rising significantly, and the same with Hispanics. It also mentioned in passing that scores were up a bit for whites and also for Asians

But SAT scores were failling??

Rama September 15, 2009 at 1:21 pm

Invisible hand(cuffs) ?

kurt9 September 15, 2009 at 2:16 pm

If the rewards of burglary and the rate of it have declined, perhaps its because most people do not have much in their homes that is worth stealing these days. Electronics are dirt cheap (except for the big flat screen TVs, and those are getting cheaper too). Furniture is hard to move and much of that, even the good stuff, is a lot cheaper today than it was in the 70′s. Most people do not keep large amounts of cash in their home, with debit and credit cards being so common. Gold and Silver, if not tableware, these are usually kept in a bank vault.

In short, residential burglary does not pay any more.

PQuincy September 15, 2009 at 4:44 pm

Looks like an example of “missing markets in almost everything”, a useful parallel series to Prof. Cowan’s fascinating “markets in almost everything” series!

Mikko September 16, 2009 at 2:13 am

How about unusually large discount rate for the future? 320$ cash now may be worth it if you pay for it at a time you discount to 1% of its value now…

TruePath September 16, 2009 at 1:42 pm

I suspect most burglars *hugely* discount the future. Jail time is usually paid farther in the future than the procedes would be gained.

Along the same lines I suspect that many burglars are drug addicts who need money ASAP to avoid withdrawal. People who need to pay off debts with high consequences for failure also come to mind. Without a good credit score these people probably don’t have other means to get the money immediately.

So if I highly discount the future and I get huge utility gains from having cash within the day the lack of competing ways to make a quick buck makes it perfectly rational to be relatively non-responsive to decreases in the cost per prison day.

理想を貫く強 March 10, 2010 at 9:34 am

lcz
「自分自身を発見し、理想を貫く強い意志を持つこと」。new balance1918年、ボストンに小さな店をオープンしたティンバーランドの創業者airmax 95 、ネイサン・シュワーツが残したシンプルな企業理念は、アメリカのみならず、ティンバーランドのその名が世界的に知られるまでになった現在でも、経営陣から社員一人ひとりにまで浸透していますtimberland ブーツ。

となり日本を沸 March 10, 2010 at 11:27 am

lxq
どのジャージにおいても、タテに走るネイビー色のラインは生地に直接染めてありますNIKE ジャージ。
レプリカジャージはナイロンメッシュ生地です。NIKE ジャージほぼ同じ倍率にも関わらず、メッシュ穴の大きさが他の2つに比べて、小さく非常にきめ細かに入っていることがわかります。またナイロン独特のテカつきがあるのも特徴ですNIKE ジャージ。
一方、スウィングマンジャージはポリエステルメッシュ生地で出来ていますNFLジャージ。レプリカジャージよりもメッシュ穴が大きく、目を凝らすと生地の織り目まで見えます。オーセンティックジャージ(≒実使用)にも同じ生地素材を採用してい用いるチームが多いため、より選手が着用する実使用の物に近い仕様になっております。また、手触りはレプリカジャージと異なり、reebok ジャージザラザラしているのも特徴です。
オーセンティックジャージは、reebok ジャージ同じチームでもホーム・アウェイ・3rd(現オルタネート)の種類ごとに生地の素材が異なる場合が多く、レイカーズ ジャージ今回は偶然にも、スウィングマンジャージの生地素材と同じでした。見た目はほとんど変わりませんが、オーセンティックジャージの方がメッシュ穴がきめ細かに入っています。また、触った感じではオーセンティックジャージの方が厚手に感じられます。

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: