Innumeracy can get you killed

by on November 12, 2009 at 2:23 pm in Current Affairs, Television | Permalink

"Statistically, it is very dangerous, but I have lived here a long time and I don't feel like I'm in any danger."

That is Justin Fenton, the Baltimore Sun's crime correspondent.

The quote comes from a longer article by a British reporter who switched places with his Baltimore counterpart because he wanted to see whether The Wire was accurate.  It is

anonymous November 12, 2009 at 2:36 pm

I guess you missed this other quote: “Those not involved in the drug trade are apparently as unlikely to be murdered in Baltimore as they are in any other civilised city in the world. Figures seem to suggest that is true.”

josh November 12, 2009 at 3:08 pm

I wonder if he would let his daughter go out by herself after midnight. Actually, I don’t wonder at all.

Bill Mill November 12, 2009 at 3:42 pm

This series is evidence that The Wire is doing real-world good.

Taeyoung November 12, 2009 at 4:15 pm

By the way, marijuana has definitely been de-facto decriminalized here in Los Angeles through medical marijuana provisions. And there has been a 50% drop in homicides since 2005.

Is there even all that much violent criminal activity associated with marijuana? I always thought of it as a bunch of useless hippies growing it in their basements and selling it to each other. Cocaine, heroin, meth — those were the ones I thought drove the drug violence. Was pot big in the criminal drug trade too?

David November 12, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Taeyoung — Yeah, A bunch of useless hippies like Louis Armstrong, Carl Sagan, Barack Obama…

Jie November 12, 2009 at 8:53 pm

You’re right Jayson, Louis Armstrong was no useless hippie

J. Goard November 13, 2009 at 1:29 am

I guess you missed this other quote: “Those not involved in the drug trade are apparently as unlikely to be murdered in Baltimore as they are in any other civilised city in the world. Figures seem to suggest that is true.”

I sure didn’t miss it, nor did I miss the fact that the figures cited in support were the wrong ones. The claim seems to be that P(murdered)|Baltimore & Non-drug-trade = P(murdered)|Other-civilized-city & Non-drug-trade, but the figure given reflects only P(murdered)|Baltimore & Drug-trade /(murdered)|Baltimore. Since there are no numbers about other cities, there is no support whatsoever for the quoted claim.

Zamfir November 13, 2009 at 3:15 am

Agree with Goard. Not being involved in drug trade makes you a lot safer everywhere. Outside of domestic fights and internal organized crime/drug trade internal affairs, many places are almost free of murder at all.

Peter November 13, 2009 at 2:12 pm

I used to live in the Canton neighborhood in Baltimore, where the crime rate is quite low. You can live in Baltimore your whole life without taking much risk of being murdered, as long as you don’t live in certain bad neighborhoods, as long as you are neither involved in the drug trade nor a close family member of someone who is, and as long as you don’t witness a murder and agree to testify.

A large proportion of the murders are revenge killings among drug gangs, and between drug gangs and the armed robbers who steal from them. Each initial murder can lead to five or six more as the cycle of revenge works itself out. Normally revenge killings are of drug gang members or armed robbers, but sometimes of their family members.

N November 14, 2009 at 5:06 pm

“I was walking in a particular neighborhood and I suddenly thought to myself “I don’t belong here. I need to leave NOW.” Specifically, it was West Saratoga Street and State Street.”

What could possibly have scared you about that area? It’s quite safe. I refer you to the very useful Baltimore murder map:

http://essentials.baltimoresun.com/micro_sun/homicides/

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