Here is one discussion of how hard it is to find the betting market in this proposition. Here is a betting market of unclear size and relevance, on which Millennium math problem will be solved next; it apparently predicts 76 percent for P vs. Np.
Here is an overview of where the entire debate is at, in Wiki form.
All of the pointers are from the ever-curious Chris F. Masse.
There was a “market” but it closed Jan 1 2010:
http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=P!NP
A more interesting betting market: whether a theorem is true/false/unprovable. Perhaps only for the very patient.
@ Jason Trost.
Why not just tag along off the Millennium Prize?
a) before date X, the Millennium Prize is awarded to someone for proving P = NP
b) before date x, the Millennium Prize is awarded to someone for disproving P = NP.
c) on date x, the Millennium Prize for P =NP has not been awarded.
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