Will the government shut down?

by on April 5, 2011 at 9:33 am in Current Affairs, Political Science | Permalink

Here are the Bookmaker’s odds:

Will the U.S. Congress reach an agreement on the federal spending cut bill for the rest of the fiscal year before March 4th?

YES -140 58%
NO -110 47%

[The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. For Example: Betting on the candidate least likely to win would earn the most amount of money, should that happen.]

For the pointer I thank Samuel Arbesman.  Why is there no InTrade.com market?

Addendum: InTrade now shows a 39 percent chance of a shutdown before the end of June.

Bill April 5, 2011 at 10:17 am

There was one unreported vote by one of the Los Vegas Bookmakers that the government would shut down AND that Fama would get the Nobel prize.

If you believed InTrade on everything involving the shutdown, you would place bets on the dollar and government securities.

Doesn’t that market tell you more than Intrade?

terrence April 5, 2011 at 10:19 am

I know you’re just quoting someone else’s article, but -110 corresponds to 52%, not 47%.

The “fair” (no-vig) price that Bookmaker has set the line at is Yes 55.4%

Eli April 5, 2011 at 10:21 am

Actually, the Intrade bid-ask spread is 12.5-39.8. I interpret that as more of a 25 percent chance of a shutdown with pretty large uncertainty.

EBooth April 5, 2011 at 10:31 am

in-trade market link: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90757
Though it didn’t show up when I searched “government shutdown”, I had to browse around a bit.

Rich Berger April 5, 2011 at 11:04 am

March 4th? Sounds like a sucker’s bet.

Dean Sayers April 5, 2011 at 1:18 pm

Kinda interesting, really late. Also – they’ve already demonstrated that they can use temporary extensions, so the shutdown didn’t even occur last month…

Bill April 5, 2011 at 6:37 pm

Didn’t say June of what year.

I’ll take the bet that June of some year in the future the government will shut down.

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