by Tyler Cowen
on March 19, 2012 at 12:14 pm
1. Which countries have the most rational motorways from a slime mold’s point of view?
2. Placebo effects in RCTs.
3. Facts about Chinese real estate.
4. The VIX futures curve and its meaning.
5. Kling on Haidt.
3. I see your housing bubble, and raise you 30M people in caves. Even with the ghost cities, there might be enough demand to soak up excess as China is still very very poor and so can still realize large gains just by being slightly less benightedly Communist.
I think China’s real problem isn’t real estate values per se but rather the depreciation. They are capital-spending themselves into a giant debt bomb while at the same time raising maintenance costs to unsustainable levels.
The guy in your article wants to move back to the cave.
Only when he’s retired, to save money.
Hell, another few years of Obamanomics and I may start looking for a retirement cave of my own.
Seems like you’ve been living in a cave for some time.
By the way, reading comprehension fail. He didn’t say he’s moving back to a cave to save money, but rather because he likes it.
Coming from you I’ll take that as high praise.
Anyways, it’s implied the cave is a step down.
“His progression made sense as he strove to improve his life. But there’s a twist: the 46-year-old Ren plans to move back to a cave when he retires.“
‘His progression made sense as he strove to improve his life. But there’s a twist: the 46-year-old Ren plans to move back to a cave when he retires. “It’s cool in the summer and warm in the winter. It’s quiet and safe,” said Ren, a ruddy-faced man’
His list of virtues of the cave doesn’t include being cheaper. Sounds like he prefers living in the cave to the concrete block house but moved into the house to be close to work. Just like some might go to North Dakota while the oil boom is on and then leave when it’s finished or they have made enough money.
Sure he does. Being warm in winter and cool in summer is the same as saying it costs less to heat and cool.
I suppose it’s somewhat debatable, but it seems likely the number of Chinese living in caves will tend to fall as PPP GDP per capita rises.
5. How many people have been killed by “chaos”?
All of them. Entropy is a harsh mistress.
The declining value of Chinese RE tracks the decline in the environment/rise in filthy water, air and food. Anyone with $$ there is desperate to get out.
RE: #5. I was robbed. I expected to see Jonathan Haidt fighting Michael Dorn with a Bat’leth.
I was thinking of the episode where Worf refused to give medical aid to the Romulan dude.
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