by Tyler Cowen
on November 30, 2012 at 7:43 am
in Uncategorized |
1. What is it like to shop in a “Made in America” store?
2. Neurologist charged with insider trading.
3. How well can algorithms predict the quality of your recipes?
4. The culture that was Japan.
5. Atlantic picks best books of the year, New Statesman does the same.
Re: (2). The article says that the early tip earned the investing companies “$276 million”. Yet the professor who gave the tip earned a total of “$100,000”. Why did the professor, a critical player in the scheme make so little money?
“Professors are stupid,” is one possible place to start with your investigation.
Or they just don’t have a Rolodex full of hedge fund managers to shop around. The getting caught sounds like the stupid part. I’ve seen profs work very hard for a $100,000 grant.
On (2), it’s worth saying that the neurologist was not in fact charged with insider trading, legally speaking. This may have something to do with the $276mm vs. $100k question.
I was hoping the neurologist got his inside information by snooping on people’s brains. Oh, well, maybe in a year or two.
My first thought was the same.
I would love to see this synthesized into an app or website with an easy to use graphical user interface and excellent food images along with their nutritional values. I think it would be cool to be able to upload a family recipe and click on a button that says “Make it: healthier, vegan, diabetic safe etc.” based on your needs. Then it would present alternative recopies ranked as a closest match. Taking this idea further it would be even cooler if the program recognized your tastes as well so after inputing foods you like and dislike or tastes you enjoy it would then better rank recipes most likely to be favored by you ala Netflix style.
Does anyone have a non-paywalled link to the first article? I think there’s to do that if you’re a WSJ subscriber and you go to email the article — you end up with a URL containing “article_email” which allows full-text access to anyone.
Search Google for the complete headline of the article. The link in the search results will usually allow you to bypass the paywall. It worked on this one at least.
2. why a relatively light “sentence” for the Neurologist compared to Rajat Gupta? Aren’t the crimes similar?
Don’t need to read the “Made in America store” article: It’d be like shopping in any American store in the 1950’s, except that lots of parts would be missing.
Wait a minute! That cover of “what they do in the dark” is a total ripoff of “the girls guide to hunting and fishing”
“Gilman, a professor at the University of Michigan who told the SEC he regarded Martoma as “a friend and a pupil”, charged around $1,000 an hour in consulting fees for a total of about $100,000… Martoma faces criminal charges in addition to the case brought by the SEC. Gilman, meanwhile, has agreed to a proposed settlement and will pay over $234,000.”
Question: What is the risk-adjusted expected value of providing insider information, from the perspective of professors like Gilman?
Answer: It depends on things we don’t know, like 1) the probability of getting caught, 2) professors’ appetite for risk (i.e. their utility curves), and 3) the payoffs for each outcome (these payoffs may be unrepresentative), but from these data (n=1, caveat emptor) it would seem the probability of getting caught would have to be pretty high (maybe 40%?) to dissuade would-be Gilmans from insider trading. Assuming a low probability of getting caught (20%? is my random guess), and somewhat risk-averse professors, the risk-adjusted expected value would probably be above zero.
On the decline of ninjas, see “Destruction, creative”: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=ninjas,%20sushi
Japan is loosing a traditional skill. Pakistanis like don’t like drones. Obama likes blowing people up.
Am I the only person who sees a synergy here?
About the Made in America Store: Andol says “I believe in global. I just say we’re totally out of balance.” Could not understand what that means. Is Andol saying ” I am for free trade as long as I always win in the market”?
I also wonder if Andol would have thought of a Made in America store if the company which beat him for the contract was an American firm instead of a Chinese one
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