Medicare today is in worse financial shape than was projected before the cost slowdown began. The recession had a more severe impact in depressing Medicare revenues than it had a helpful effect on Medicare cost growth.
That is from Chuck Blahous. It is tricky as to whether we are associating the recession with a one-time loss of output, or with an ongoing slowdown in the rate of economic growth (and which caused which?). Still, on the fiscal front, for the long-term projections, I would say the net bad news has been exceeding the net good news, even though the good news is very welcome indeed.