Predictious is the premier Bitcoin betting market

by on February 18, 2014 at 2:09 pm in Economics, Uncategorized | Permalink

Or so they say.

Via Maxim Lott, whose piece on Predictious is here.

1 Ray Lopez February 18, 2014 at 2:21 pm

I predict this site will develop a “technical problem” and “accidentally” lose all their customers monies in escrow, as often happens with such “anonymous” companies. I would like to join a prediction market, since as a dual-national I can use my non-US passport and not run afoul of any US laws against gaming. And where can I bet on chess? I’ve not found a decent site, Betson does not have it for example. I have bet on cockfights here in the Philippines, illegal in the USA (see recent NY bust), and made money (beginners luck, though I got pretty good at spotting which bird seemed more aggressive in the prefight lineup). It’s kind of fun but not as a habit. And IMO since chickens feel less pain than dogs it’s not that cruel, except it seems a shame that people spend 2 years feeding and grooming their roosters all for a 3 minute fight where the contestants both die, but then again these birds are bred to fight and love it.

2 ummm February 18, 2014 at 2:30 pm

yea like silk road 2 got ‘hacked’ and ‘lost’ 2m in coins. Also you need a google acount

3 Silas Barta February 18, 2014 at 2:31 pm

It’s a good thing you can’t be defrauded in US dollars, and that law enforcement is *extremely* diligent about recovering money lost this way.

4 Maxim February 18, 2014 at 2:42 pm

It’s not anonymous (details in the piece.)

5 prior_approval February 18, 2014 at 11:14 pm

‘since as a dual-national I can use my non-US passport and not run afoul of any US laws against gaming’

This is not correct, as the United States does not recognize any citizenship but its own (and that pretty much includes those with a Green Card, with the IRS claiming the right to tax their world wide income the same as an American citizen). As a concrete example, an American citizen using a non-U.S. passport to travel to a country like Cuba is still subject to this – ‘Unless authorized by a general or specific license, any person subject to U.S. jurisdiction who engages in any Cuba travel-related transaction violates the Regulations and may be subject to penalties.’

I am not a lawyer, nor is this legal advice. But if you are an American citizen, that is all you are in the eyes of the American government.

6 Ray Lopez February 19, 2014 at 5:58 am

Ah, good point. I guess then my point is as a dual-national I can present my non-US passport upon application for an account with say Betson, and they would never know I’m an American, hence if they ever get audited by the US IRS somehow, the IRS would never recognize my name.

7 Chad February 18, 2014 at 2:33 pm

Isn’t Bitcoin the premier Bitcoin betting market?

8 msgkings February 18, 2014 at 6:46 pm


9 Todd Fletcher February 18, 2014 at 10:40 pm

It also doubles as a roller coaster

10 Timothy February 18, 2014 at 6:16 pm

Soon obsolete by Counterparty XCP.

11 Doug February 18, 2014 at 7:29 pm

Interesting the site has (binary) options on the price of Bitcoin. I’d love to see what the B-S implied vol surface looks like.

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