Assorted links

by on July 6, 2014 at 12:43 pm in Uncategorized | Permalink

1 Jason Smith July 6, 2014 at 12:51 pm
2 Tom July 7, 2014 at 12:18 am

I went to your blog but frankly it’s too much of a chore to decode your argument. You’re siding with the “neo-Fisherite” and Williamson arguments that QE suppress inflation, but I don’t understand on what grounds. I found the neo-Fisherite and Williamson arguments to be rather dim, so if you’ve got a different mechanism, please explain it as simply and clearly as possible.

I should warn you I generally view monetarism as the science of confusing stocks and flows. That is I think money supply does not act directly on inflation and acts indirectly only to the extent it affects spending. I think the portfolio model best explains QE’s power and hyperinflation is caused by rapidly increasing nominal public spending.

That all said I agree with what you wrote about Japan, that deflation isn’t “beaten”. But I think that’s because devaluation, fiscal stimulus and consumpion tax hikes are all one offs, and the base money supply is not important to demand-pull inflation except to the extent it’s funding higher spending. Imo Japan’s fiscal/monetary problem isn’t demographic deflation much less tech deflation, it’s the failure to grasp their importance to debt dynamics, ie a kind of money illusion in which low nominal rates were mistaken for low real rates. But so long as savers support it, it’s just a new saver to old saver transfer.

3 Daniel July 6, 2014 at 1:00 pm

#2 – that’s just laughable.

Correlation does not imply causation.

4 Jirka Lahvicka July 6, 2014 at 1:19 pm

Ad #4: This article is about the UK market only – 600,000 copies worldwide would not be enough. More copies than that are sold in the US and Japan (two biggest music markets in the world).

5 Dave Barnes July 6, 2014 at 2:12 pm

Inflation.

Business Insider is not exactly a reputable, reliable, useful source.

6 andrew' July 6, 2014 at 2:16 pm

4. I don’t get the song or the movie , but then again I made the mistake of seeing The Lego Movie first amd it has ruined me forever.

3. Does that go on my boss/wife?

7 ummm July 6, 2014 at 2:30 pm

2. should be obvious to anyone that drives

8 Tom July 6, 2014 at 3:04 pm

#4 If you want to dominate music sales these days, you need to appeal to 13 year old girls.

9 msgkings July 6, 2014 at 3:11 pm

Twas ever thus.

10 BC July 6, 2014 at 3:20 pm

Let it go.

11 Z July 6, 2014 at 9:19 pm

A fun book to read is The Wrecking Crew. The pop music business was always a factory operation churning out product for teenage girls.

12 Steve Sailer July 6, 2014 at 4:09 pm

“5. The actual, correct link to Matt’s blog-like entity on Vox.”

It’s interesting that Yglesias doesn’t use his well-known surname on his personal section of Vox, just the generic “Matt’s Live Journal” (except when interviewing). My impression is that Vox has a policy of discouraging individual writers from becoming stars so that the equity resides in the Vox brand rather than in individuals who could off like Nate Silver to start their own properties. That may make sense in the long run from the perspective of making Ezra Klein rich, but it sure makes Vox more boring right now.

13 Z July 6, 2014 at 6:53 pm

That’s been the ESPN model. It has not always worked as some of the people escaped the reservation and made it on their own. But even the Scientologists lose a few converts.

14 Vernunft July 7, 2014 at 12:29 am

Or maybe “Yglesias” will turn people off. It’s been a long, long time since I read the formerly ubiquitous praise of MattY as a super genius. Bloom is well off that rose.

15 The Other Jim July 7, 2014 at 11:24 am

Exactly. The “Yglesias” name is thoroughly tainted. And deservedly so.

16 rayward July 6, 2014 at 4:36 pm

2. Oh my, higher wages! Surely the end is near.

17 Roy July 6, 2014 at 5:08 pm

6. The year is only half over, there are several very exciting Swedish prog rack albums coming out this fall…

18 ~FR July 6, 2014 at 6:02 pm

#6: Either the battlefield or wall street. Interesting idea- I had never thought about SkyNet coming online and immediately shorting the S&P 500…

19 Yancey Ward July 6, 2014 at 9:58 pm

Kyle Reese stops you from putting your 401K into Aggressive Growth.

20 chuck martel July 6, 2014 at 10:50 pm

” as the unemployed become more scarce, employed workers have greater bargaining power for wages.”

What’s that got to do with inflation? If, in fact, that were true, why wouldn’t an increase in stock prices also be inflationary? Supposedly wage earners with higher pay packages compete for goods, driving up prices. But couldn’t the same thing be said about stock prices, which are measured by the price of shares sold and these shares, if sold at a profit, put more money in the hands of investors, who do not necessarily use that money to
buy more and different stocks but may instead use it to purchase salmon steaks, Buell motorcycles and Ziess sunglasses, as well as beer, cheetos and multi-color tattoos. driving up the prices of those things as well? For years it’s been accepted as fact that higher wages are inflationary but there is no evidence of it. According to Milton Friedman, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”. Ludwig von Mises said, “Inflation is a general increase in the money supply.”

21 Noumenon72 July 6, 2014 at 11:41 pm

2. Business Week’s sidebar links this article which simply takes the chart back another dozen years and reveals just as large a gap in the ’90s.

22 Brian Donohue July 7, 2014 at 8:09 am

Good link. Perspective!

23 Alexei Sadeski July 7, 2014 at 4:10 am

2. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

24 Jim Nazium July 7, 2014 at 9:04 am

#6 “The hyper-specialization, learning capabilities and potential for autonomous existence seems to indicate that Wall Street will have the world’s first self-aware machines” That conclusion doesn’t follow from the premise. Machines can be hyper-specialized, autonomous, and capable of ‘learning’ without being conscious.

25 Ken Silber July 7, 2014 at 2:01 pm

I’ve been following the “conscious machines coming to Wall Street” idea for some months, and recently wrote a skeptical appraisal: http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/06/30/are-killer-robots-the-next-black-swan

26 James Oswald July 11, 2014 at 3:50 pm

2: To paraphrase Garett Jones, “How long until inflation hawks get tired of being wrong? I say infinity.” If you really want to know what inflation expectations are, look at the TIPS spread.

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