1. Claims about density, diversity, and voting behavior (do not reason from a static coalition!).
2. Bruno Latour has his own circus.
3. “Doing Business in Japan.”
4. Are the Republicans any better on state and local business regulation?
5. Will the LeBron James stimulus be good for the Cleveland economy?
6. Secession fever grows in Catalonia.
@1
Just seems like a corollary of the median voter theorem. There’s no way one parties going to be content with letting its positions drift from the 50th to 30th percentile. If the populace moves left, then Republicans will to. But that all seems pretty irrelevant, as long as you actually care about conservative issues rather than just merely cheerlead for your party. Whether the America of 2050 is a single party state or Republican politicians vote like the Democratic ones of today makes no difference.
@ Doug, thanks for the pointer, though you lost me in your last sentence (as a single-party state is I think a big difference, unless you believe the median voter theorem essentially forms a single state). The theory in voting is quite extensive I see (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimax_Condorcet — minimax is also used in chess programming) and Anthony Downs, who wrote an influential book on real estate back in the 80s (“The Revolution in Real Estate Finance”), which prematurely as I recall predicted a sort of supply side crash in prices in real estate, though it correctly saw securitization of mortgages, opined in this area as well says Wikipedia, as far back as 1957 (Downs, Anthony (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. Harper Collins).
Surely, one can differentiate by responses to issues, rather than merely talking about different ones.
Just seems like a corollary of the median voter theorem. Sort of: more like the median coalition theory, since voters tend to come in somewhat “lumpy” groups. And it is worth representing ideas so as to target recurring problems in analysis.
Good to see the idea of secession gain wider credibility as a peaceful option to ham-fisted political tyranny.
I was very disappointed when LeBron James returned to Cleveland. More traffic trying to get out of downtown.
So, if Republicans soft-pedal cultural issues which are working against them and start talking about poverty, equal pay, income inequality and black disadvantage (their Senate majority now includes South Carolina’s first black Senator since Reconstruction), then the cross-over point can shift–in their favour.
Sure, if only Republicans were Democrats. Then Democrats might vote for them.
If only Republicans – or anyone – spoke more on the matter of equal pay, and the fact that the gender pay gap is a myth.
+1
Only if they propose the same solutions/responses.
On the other hand, they could well continue to agitate on those cultural issues while also becoming active on poverty and inequality. Social and economic issues are orthogonal in principal.
“4. Are the Republicans any better on state and local business regulation? ”
I think they’re a lot better at using government and government money to the benefit of their masters. In fact, that’s how I know Satan doesn’t exist. If he did, the GOP would have cornered his business long ago. He’d be writing them checks left and right and they’d cash them with smiles of subservience.
Yes, those Republican’s are pure evil. /derp
scary big, talking, 2u
@#3 – this observor loser is going to push this blog towards registration if they keep up this spamming, which might not be such a bad idea…
The blog on a foreigner working in Japan was good, but the author’s prose was long-winded, probably because the author works in Japan, and deals with ‘indirection’ and ‘saving face’ all day long, so it carries over into their prose. In Asia, these two traits are very common, as is, in south Asia, smiling even when pessimistic, as well as (in Asia generally) never disappointing the audience by saying ‘no’ (I believe, technically, there’s no word for “YES” or “NO” in Chinese for example, instead, you say something long winded like: “I do not wish to view your youtube video” instead of answering “NO” to the question: Do you wish to view my youtube video? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lge9yQj7kLI (” How to say no in Japanese” – you don’t say ‘no’ in Japanese but ‘not quite’ or the way I explain it above)
Not true for Chinese- dui is commonly used as “correct.” Throwing Bu (or sometimes mei) in front of a verb just means no.
In Japan I can confirm they often said yes when they meant no.
Let’s check with Language Log about “no word for “yes” or “no” in Chinese. They have a think about statements that “There is no word for “X” in [language] Y” are almost always wrong.
I judge independence movements by what they say their objective are. It it is just to express their “X”ness, it seems weak. Now if Catalans wanted out of Spain as a way of escaping the Euro, that would seem reasonable.
So money is more important to you than culture and identity. Fine. However, most people wouldn’t agree.
That youtube clip isn’t really correct. She is starting with the assumption that only “iie” means “no.” People use the lower level “iiya, chigau” all the time, and it certainly means “no.” So does something softer like how Japanese say “I don’t think so”. In context, that is a clear “no.”
Most European countries are very small, almost all are smaller than mid-size American states but still have regional differences that can fuel this independent sentiment. The UK was cool about letting the Scots vote because they felt the “No” could win easily but when the “Yes” started getting momentum everybody went crazy in London.
In Spain, there’s a real “risk” a “Yes” to independence win in not only in Catalonia but in other regions that could well ask for their own vote. That’s why Madrid is so eager to cut the roots. It’s a real risk that Spain as we know for some centuries now will give place to a bunch of small nations seem as rebels for a lost cause and approached with hostility by other states, mining their future from the start.
It’s fascinating how Catalans still feel that cultural differences cannot live under the same flag after so many years. If the whole world have the same approach the number of countries could well triple. Just look at how African countries were put togheter in cold room in Berlin back in late 19th century….
It’s fascinating how Catalans still feel that cultural differences cannot live under the same flag after so many years. If the whole world have the same approach the number of countries could well triple. Just look at how African countries were put togheter in cold room in Berlin back in late 19th century
How different Catalans are or think they are is not something to which I’m privy. For all I know the Catalans are throwing a big hissy fit. But where is the evidence that multiculturalism works outside of places where a highly centralized government keeps the lid clamped down on everybody?
Not optimal, but people have been muddling through here, there, and the next place (in Canada, in Belgium, in Indonesia, in the Philippines, in South Africa, and, most notably, India).
Most European countries are very small, almost all are smaller than mid-size American states but still have regional differences that can fuel this independent sentiment.
A typical American state has a population of about 6 million. Those in Europe less populous would be the Scandinavian states (though not Sweden), the detritus of Yugoslavia (though not Serbia), the Baltic states, the British dependent territories, several medieval relics, and a scatter of about four others. Somewhat short of ‘almost all’.
I think he means geographically small.
The “geographically small” countries with ethnically delimited regions is a list just about limited to Switzerland and what’s left of Bosnia and Herzegovina. There are large ethnic minorities in the Baltic states, but these are scattered in an urban archipellago and do not have dedicated provinces. The Sorbs in Germany are a modal population only in select municipalities. There is one province of the Netherlands where Frisians are a plurality. You have Lapps in northern Scandinavia, but these countries are not geographically small.
Oh, there’s Belgium as well, where separatist sentiment is important (which it’s not in Switzerland)
I don’t think you have compared the geographic size of European countries compared to US states. The median US state is around 150,000 sq Km. Greece for example would be below the state median and it would be well below the average.
#6: 80% of them want independence http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20141110/54419122198/resultados-9n.html
It’s kind of funny to find ideas like Garcia Marquez lived here therefore we’re better than Spain, no corridas de toros here thus we’re better than Spain. The author is right, people is angry. For now, they should enjoy the sympathy they get from media and Europe’s youth, I don’t know how long they will last.
I’d be skeptical of those numbers.
That aside, Valencia and the Balaerics are Catalanophone areas, but the separatist sentiment there has been of scant consequence.
Because people from Valencia claim thy speak Valenciano and people from Mallorca claim they speak Balear. The languages are pretty much the same, but Catalans are not the only nationalists in Spain.
#1 yes but our Government and both parties have become more like the Democrats over time. Once Republicans wanted to end SS and Medicare. Even Reagan was to the left of Kennedy and FDR on most issues.
But the same logic applies: if Republicans adopted a pro investment, more redistributionist, pro-immigration, less socially conservative positions to appeal to “Democratic” groups, they would loose “Republican” groups.
Republicans tend to represent established business and to be hostile to innovation that could upset established businesses. It is unlikely they would be be more favorable to innovations like Uber, Air B&B, the Tesla distribution model, and regulations encouraging denser less automobile dependent urban development. Barro takes their “pro-growth” rhetoric too seriously.
Republicans tend to represent established business and to be hostile to innovation that could upset established businesses.
In your imagination.
Where “established businesses” meet Democrats is in the area of copyright and patent. Here Republicans are the one’s at least nominally willing to be upsetters. Or so it seems:
http://politics.slashdot.org/story/14/11/03/1415210/silicon-valley-swings-to-republicans
the link is about state and local government. Wouldn’t copyright and patent law be a national issue?
3 – this was well done. The blogger successfully encapsulated about 30-35 “what’s it really like over here” conversations I had with salary men, their wives, public officials, etc while I was in Osaka for a couple of years. I co-sign that whole piece and was glad he inserted the bit about his bank and what it feels like to interact with such extremes of personal reputation always on the table. It swings wildly between WTF how does anyone get anything done and man that was the coolest personal touch ever.
Commentators made some good points about secession.
Leaving aside the cultural hangover of the civil war, the idea that US states are equivalent to European countries is a myth. The average and median European country is much bigger than the average and median US state in land area and population. The great majority of US states would function poorly as countries due to some combination of being too small, being landlocked, having no major metropolitan areas or splitting their metropolitan areas with other states. People in these discussions like to cite California and Texas, which as it happens not only could be successful countries on their own, but are just about the only US states which could be successful countries on their own.
The United Kingdom -note the name- and Spain are special cases in that both were created at the beginning of the eighteenth century, in the middle of changing royal dynasties, from a largish centralized kingdom (England and Castille) and a number of smaller kingdoms. This gives their secession movements more traction than in equivalently sized European countries that were formed at different times and through different methods. Note that Ireland and Portugal wound up escaping entirely, though there is no particular reason why they are not part of the UK/ Spain and some of the other small countries are.
The great majority of US states would function poorly as countries due to some combination of being too small, being landlocked, having no major metropolitan areas or splitting their metropolitan areas with other states
California and Texas.. are just about the only US states which could be successful countries on their own.
Uh huh
Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic are landlocked. Works for them. That aside, New Zealand functions satisfactorily with a total population of just north of 4 million and a key city with a population just north of 1 million. It has a full complement of financial markets and belongs to no supranational agencies like the EU. The following U.S. States meet the demographic criteria that New Zealand sets (and are more affluent):
California
Washington State
Arizona
Colorado
Texas
Georgia
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Indiana
Ohio
Virginia
Maryland
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
You’ve also got some near misses which might soon attain these criteria: Oregon and North Carolina, Tennessee.
—
New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Illinois, and Arizona present some problems as they are demographically dominated by their key city. Some other states suffer from contextually hypertrophied key cities (of which Georgia is one, Washington state another, Minnesota another, Maryland another). Missouri’s major cities are bisected, as is New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Cincinnati. Nothing says precise boundaries cannot change.
“The average and median European country is much bigger than the average and median US state in land area and population. ”
This is just completely wrong. The median US state is physically bigger that the median European country. And if you were to look at averages, it’s not even close.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_area
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_area
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