by Tyler Cowen
on January 3, 2016 at 2:17 pm
The total fertility rate is 1.92 births per woman.
In both Israel and Syria it is about three.
Razib Khan had reference related information in a comment on this blog.
Was travelling around Iran for a month late last year. The PR Iran gets in the West really does underplay the extent to which the place is a developed country with developed country problems. Even though the fashion police are still out there in force, women really do have a lot of freedom to make the important choices about how they live their lives in terms of things like reproductive rights, education, political participation and employment.
Yes, in a couple of major cities in Iran. The same can be said of every Arab country as well, in fact. The vast majority is still third worldish level, however (as with the majority of the Arab world)
Really maybe travel over to major cities in Saudi Arabia and let me know how women’s rights are doing, no try Kuwait see if that’s better or maybe Iraq ? with the exception of Turkey Iran is the most progressive country in that region.
> In both Israel and Syria it is about three.
Today there are more children who speak Hebrew than there are children who speak Finnish or Norwegian.
But can they ski and skate?
Hear the Scandinavians bickering about one another: “Northern Lights: True Norse” http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03c8lg6
perhaps the Finns and Norwegians don’t have lebensraum to populate.
Also fewer billionaire Finnish-Americans indulgently subsidising loony homeland Finns who think they have to conquer parts of Sweden in order to hasten the building of the Third Sauna.
The Jewish National Fund has a budget of about $104 million dollars, or about $17 per Jew in Israel &c. Israel’s gdp exceeds $200 billion dollars.
great, hop off the american welfare line and stop killing babies. judenrat.
Swedes don’t fire rockets at Helsinki from launch sites hidden inside elementary schools. Do you really think that if the population of Gaza was magically transformed from Arabs to Swedes that there wouldn’t be total peace in two years? There are many places where Israelis and Swedes live in proximity and they get along swimmingly. Sunni Arabs next to Israelis leads to rocket attacks. Sunni Arabs next to Swedes leads to rapes. Sunni Arabs next to Kurds leads to mass graves. Sunni Arabs next to Sunni Arabs leads to endless sectarian violence.
I don’t think the Israeli-Arab conflict can be chalked up to Sheldon Adelson…
I don’t imagine the Swedes would tolerate a highly orchestrated demographic invasion or military occupation for very long at all before fighting back.
The Swedes would have had the sense not to trash six separate opportunities to arrange a settlement.
And I don’t think you have to imagine it.
The third sauna has already been built in Norway, in Salten. Though size seems to defeat the point of a sauna.
let the ceremonial lutefisk sacrifices recommence!
Israel doesn’t have it either.
The relevant statistic for Israel, is the TFR in Palestine… Which is probably quite high as well…
There is no such place as Palestine, and never was bar during the period running from 1920 to 1948. The total fertility rate on the West Bank and Gaza has been tanking as well, and now stands at 4.0 (propped up by UNRWA welfare). It tends to be higher in Gaza than on the West Bank.
“There is no such place as Palestine…”
The facts argue contra:
If you take the earliest (i.e. 12th century BCE) Egyptian references to “Peleset” it’s arguable that “Palestine” as a name for the geographic region has an earlier grounding in recorded history than “Israel”.
From 135 AD to 390 AD there was the Roman province named Syria Palestina. It was established with the merger of Roman Syria and Roman Judaea.
For most of the 12th century AD, that part of the Middle East was the Kingdom of Jerusalem (existed nearly 200 years, from 1099 AD). It was governed by Western European Crusaders. Jerusalem fell to Saladin in 1188, after the crusader armies were decimated at the Horns of Hattin..
OK, there’s no such thing as American. The identity was fabricated and hence it does not exist, even though it exists.
You just don’t like analogies which reveal how one-sided your world view is about some things.
“Americans” are British Christians. “Palestinians” are Arab Muslims. Neither one of them really exists.
History is static and nations are never born in response to events.
TFR is going down quite rapidly around the world except in subsaharan Africa…. Even US is only 1.87!!! This is of course great news. Except for the subharan Africa part…
Give it time, it’ll happen there too
It’s declining in Tropical Africa as well, just doing so less rapidly.
Too slow, IMO, look at Nigeria for instance: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ni&v=31
Lol that’s the worst news there is. Hey, the human race might die out! Great news!
We’ve been on the brink of dying out for centuries. I’m quite concerned.
The world’s been fluctuating in temperature for millennia. I’m quite concerned.
Wolf grin emoticon.
Humans have been on this planet for 200,000 years. Let’s see how we handle the biggest and most abrupt climate shift ever in our existence, that we caused!
Floor falls out from under wolf emoticon.
Jan – previous changes to the climate, yes happened but were not caused by humans.
However, they preceded both private property and borders, and “climate refugees” in previous times could just migrate. Where will tens of millions of Bangladeshis go when it’s flooded? Where will tens of millions of Africans go when it’s too hot to grow crops there?
Jan could start by throwing it’s computer into the recycling bin and never posting here again.
Practice what you preach.
Actually, low power computer communications would be the LAST thing against the wall, when the revolution comes.
Where will tens of millions of Africans go when it’s too hot to grow crops there?
@Nathan they will go to the plant breeders and/or import food. BTW the world food crop yields are rising faster than world population with no end in site.
Great news how? Less inventions this way, and inventions are what took us from the caves into the sky.
Sure, the next Steve Jobs will come from Burkina Faso, Niger, etc. 😉 . The most important point, is that our planet can not support much more than 10 billion people… And good luck integrating all those africans in US/EU…
David Goldman as Spengler has some graphs and opinions mapping Iran’s fertility drop to its expansionism:
Key quote: ‘For Iran, with US$4,000 in personal income per capita, low fertility is a national sentence. President Mahmud Ahmadinedjad called it “genocide against the Iranian nation”.’
The TFR in the Middle East is pretty high all around. Unlike what we heard in the news a couple of years ago, the TFR in the arab world is not falling dramatically. Most places it is above 2,1, lots of places it is only dropping very slowly and there is even few places where it is rising.
It other words; the Middle East population will continue to grow for the next 50 years, and probably more.
The consequence: Iran and Europe will face a lot of problems
No, it’s not. The World Bank’s preferred delineation of “Middle East and North Africa” has a tfr of 2.73, and that metric has declined by 60% over the last 5 decades. You toss in a few adjacent loci like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Sudan and you might push the metric over 3.0.
Just under three in Saudi Arabia. What will be America’s response in the revolution that’s coming to Saudi Arabia? I suspect the first response, if a Republican is President, will be to protect and preserve the current regime, to pretend that it’s a Persian conspiracy. After all, Arabs from Saudi Arabia attacked America on 9/11, and Bush’s response was to identify Iran as the Evil One. It’s the rational response: Arabs can’t change a light bulb, Persians can build nuclear bombs.
What will be America’s response in the revolution that’s coming to Saudi Arabia?
The ‘revolution’ has ‘been coming’ in Saudi Arabia for nearly forty years now. Walter Laqueuer was expecting one by 1990 at one point. Maybe there’s something about the place you chaps don’t get.
The overthrow of the Saudi royal family was widely expected in the 1970s.
Was it really? Looking back now, seems like the ’70s were when the House of Saud were the most secure they’ve ever been, what with oil rents pouring into their coffers like never before and the threat of Arab Nationalist and Communist movements successfully contained after the proxy wars and unrest in the ’50s and ’60s.
When they run out of money to buy off the malcontents, things are unlikely to go well.
Which malcontents have they bought off? Just their proven reserves might last 90 years at current production rates.
Anyone who would be malcontent without any jobs, who currently enjoys a lifetime of freebies.
But when they are forced to sell the oil at labor costs and all the labor is Western workers and not Saudi or Arab, what is the point of 90 years of reserves?
Somewhere around the 80s, economists seemed to come to believe that prices can be arbitrarily higher than labor costs because consumers are not workers, but entities created by economists with infinite cash in their pockets to spend.
Saudis have been able to sell oil for 100% over the labor costs they pay Western workers because elsewhere in the world, governments are willing to go into debt to the Saudis in order to pay people to buy over priced oil, because they find killing jobs and creating poverty better for the wealthy.
After all, the reason doing without burning fossil fuels “costs too much” is workers must be paid to build all the wind and solar harvesting capital assets, (or nuclear capital assets) and paying workers to build capital is far more costly than burning natural capital requiring far fewer workers.
I love how prevelant the Persians are super smart meme got in the run up to Nuclear Deal. Just a tip rayward the DNC says you can can knock it off now it was just a talking point. Iran can’t even build a decent airplane. Pakistan can build nuclear bombs Saudi Arabia will have one too within the decade. That’s the real irony- the raywards and the Obamas of the world have ensured that Saudi Arabia goes nuclear.
If anyone is to blame for this situation, it’s the US and the rest of the West for letting the first country in the middle east go nuclear.
Now, clearly it’s Obama’s fault that Saudi Arabia is a Sunni petrostate in the same neighborhood as a nuclear Israel and an aggressive but non nuclear Iran. If one the Bushes were still in office, he’d just offer them a few of our nukes. Probably bomb Iran, too. A winning strategy. Real light touch stuff.
Right, the simmering standoff between Shia and Sunni nations only exploded recently not because the U.S. suddenly put a hand on the scale but … Israel!
And the Bushes would give Saudis nukes?
These reflexive cheers for your guy are quite something to see.
it’s the US and the rest of the West for letting the first country in the middle east go nuclear.
Yak Yak Yak. Those who insist Israel has a nuclear capacity have been contending as much for forty years. Bit late to attribute an arms race between Iran and Saudi Arabia to that.
The Saudis funded the Pakistani nuclear bombs program, plus the Sunni salafi wahhabist terrorism that was directed at India and USSR, but now is directed at the West in general, the US in particular, and the House of Saud and it’s emirate puppets, Shia, Christian people’s in Africa, and so on.
Of course, anyone who argues religious states are a good thing, ie Israel a Jewish state, are thus also in full support of the Islamic State. Both seek to restore ancient religious governments in order to bring on the end times. The fact that evangelicals support Israel as a religious state to bring on the end times, the conservatives in Israel seek to bring on the end times, and the Islamic State is also recruiting to bring on the end times.
The Saudis funded the Pakistani nuclear bombs program
Just a quick history lesson, the US was against Israel having nukes. The French actually were the ones who helped them.
The US also opposed South Korean and Taiwanese nuclear programs, though you can see how Taiwan might really like to have those now.
You’re talking to ideological walls on both sides there. But, I for one, appreciate the point.
Shhhh, don’t let facts get in the way of a good fight, Harun.
For those who don’t follow this sort of thing, according to the Hebrew Bible (the “Old Testament” to Christians), Arabs descended from Abraham and his slave Hagar (and their son Ishmael), while Jews descended from Abraham and his wife Sarah (and their son Isaac). An angel told Hagar that Ishmael would be the father of a great nation (Genesis 21:18) and that Ishmael would be “a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone’s hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers”. The next time you hear some evangelical Christian babbling on about Hagar and Ishmael, now you know.
It would be useful to look more closely at the breakdown of who is having the most kids within these countries, and who is sitting out the reproductive show. Israel in particular is a surprise to me, but I have some theories. Let’s examine this.
Jan, can’t tell if serious. It’s the Orthodox having all the kids, pretty much like orthodox or cult-ish religious groups do all over the world (Mormons, etc.)
Orthodox. Arabs too.
Non-haredi FR is 2.6. Not sure about non-orthodox, orthodox is generally higher everywhere.
“Jan, can’t tell if serious.”
I want to say this a lot.
“pretty much like orthodox or cult-ish religious groups do all over the world (Mormons, etc.)”
Speaking as a politically moderate atheist, I don’t think it’s fair to characterize the Mormons this way.
Here’s a graph of fertility rates among different kinds of Israeli Jews:
In Israel, it’s highly respectable for intellectuals to discuss in public perspectives that would get them in deep trouble in America.
It’s highly respectable in Japan as well, but it doesn’t help very much.
Good news: the only people having kids are the idiots 😉
Births have been rising for 15 years now. They’ll be over 2 in no time. There’ll be no shortage of Iranians.
And with a life expectancy of 70 they have much fewer old people to care about. Seems like a very sustainable demographic pattern. 2 kids per couple, people dying at 70. Developed countries would have no financial problems with these figures.
The closer you get to 70, the more you wouldn’t like this formula.
Iran had a lot of propaganda for more births during the war with Iraq. After that ended, they realized having so many young people around was destabilizing, and actually have a very effective birth control infrastructure and communications.
There is one TFR that’s quite remarkable. Not only is their population growing 15% a year, but their increase in IQ is rising 1.5% a year and is expected to exceed the average IQ of Americans by 2025.
These are robots.
The quality and frankness of public discourse about fertility rates in Israel is much higher than in the U.S.:
I am a 40 something year old Iranian and I can tell first hand that we have had one of sharpest declines in fertility rates [I can’t see anyone from my relatives and friends (younger than 50 years old) with more than two kids]. There are a number of factors leading to this. Among them are paying more attention to quality than quantity, high unemployment and bad economy, pessimism about the future, good birth control programs, affording at most two bedroom apartments for most city residents. One other factor is that Iranian girls are now generally getting married in their 30s rather than 20s and therefore for many there are not enough opportunities to have more than two children even if they want. We have also had one of the highest increases in divorce rates (I think 1 in 4 marriages now end up in divorce) and we also have one of the highest net migration (out of the country) in the world. The supreme leader has recently expressed concerns about the low fertility rates [he said that he had made a mistake in allowing birth control programs after Iran-Iraq war (he has never admitted for any other mistakes in his more than 25 years of ruling)] and they have now cut all birth control programs and are now encouraging people to have more children. I think they have now even put penalties for doctors who do birth control operations.
Very interesting. Thank you. It is nice to see someone who knows what they are talking about comment once in a while.
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