Powell would be an excellent choice for the Fed

by on October 30, 2017 at 3:44 pm in Current Affairs, Economics | Permalink

1 Jacob October 30, 2017 at 3:48 pm

The reason being…?

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2 msgkings October 30, 2017 at 3:51 pm

Yeah kind of a weird post, just a headline no text.

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3 David Pinto October 30, 2017 at 3:48 pm

His philosophy should be known as “A Powell Creed.” That might lead to a rocky tenure, however.

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4 msgkings October 30, 2017 at 3:49 pm

I’m embarrassed to say this made me giggle.

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5 m October 30, 2017 at 4:00 pm

Nice try, Powell.

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6 Meets October 30, 2017 at 4:57 pm

Looks like Powell got access to Tyler’s computer.

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7 A clockwork orange October 30, 2017 at 10:01 pm

the que, the poor dutch always in the shade of the French. M.C escher and his poor skin disease transposing such a beautiful painting as the garden of earthly delights into an anemic forerunner of brutalist architecture but with an eye, the eye dialect for Niemen Marcus.

Might as well nominate James G. Sokolove . The poor dutch, like dayton, and the kentucky cat call, sitting like a child with a pillow in the back seat.

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8 rayward October 30, 2017 at 4:11 pm

For those who are unable to make the connection, Cowen is communicating that the circus created by Trump (see Cowen’s post in Bloomberg) doesn’t take away from Powell (earlier today singled out as the leading candidate) as a qualified candidate. In ordinary times, I would be inclined to favor Powell over Taylor (the other leading candidate). What favors Taylor over Powell is that Taylor’s inclinations would be to take rising asset prices as something to be mitigated not promoted. What favors Powell over Taylor is that Taylor’s inclinations would be to take rising asset prices as something to be mitigated not promoted.

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9 Shimekson October 30, 2017 at 4:26 pm

He is definitely qualified. However, in ordinary times, POTUS would just reappoint the person who is already doing at least a decent job.

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10 Meets October 30, 2017 at 4:58 pm

He is communicating it without text?

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11 TMC October 30, 2017 at 5:13 pm

Did Trump create the circus, or merely expose it?

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12 Dick the Butcher - You Know Where This Is Going October 30, 2017 at 6:14 pm

TMC, It’s going to be a rough seven-plus years for rayward and the I-hate-normal-Americans crowd.

Trump2020!

Here are a few accomplishments achieved by The Trump Circus.

Nearly 1.5 million fewer Americans on food stamps.

Defeated ISIS In Months, Obama Twiddled Thumbs For Years

Ended CPP

Ended illegal subsidies to giant health insurance companies.

Market-based Health Insurance Reforms More Options, Lower Costs

Decertified Iran Compliance With Nuclear Deal – The mullahs got up front on the tarmac cash in exchange for promising to hide their nuclear arms development. Thanks, Obama.

Pakistan Helped Free American Hostages

Withdrew From UNESCO

Stock Market Continued To Soar

Two quarters 3%+ GDP growth

Justice Gorsuch, President Trump could appoint three more Supreme Court Justices in the first term.

It’s why we elected him.

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13 Anon October 30, 2017 at 8:07 pm

” Trump2020! ”

Yes, 20/20 vision would be welcome.

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14 Bill October 30, 2017 at 8:14 pm

Dick,,

1. Re Food Stamp False Claim: “As the economy has improved, states have had to drop those waivers, especially since 2016. On April 1, 2016, after the first three-month period passed, an estimated 500,000 to 1 million people in 22 states lost their benefits.

But analysts say that while reinstating work requirements has contributed to the drop in program participation, so has the better economy, since fewer people are in need. Data show that the share of the U.S. population participating in SNAP tracks with the share at or below the poverty line.” http://www.newsweek.com/people-food-stamps-snap-decline-participation-640500

2. Re: False Claim that Defeated Isis in Months. Evidently you don’t read the news and have missed the fact that this was wrapping up before Donald came to office.

3. Ended CPP. Yes, but is CCP the abbreviation for the old Soviet Union?

4. Ended Illegal Subsidies to Insurance. False again. Those were reimbursement payments promised to carriers who had extended them to insured. Sort of like saying if I have a contract with you to give Joe some reimbursement for his policy and now I refuse to pay you I am ending a subsidy to you.

5. Market based insurance options. Where, when, or is this just in your mind.

6. Decertified compliance. So what, he kicked it to Congress.

7. Pakistan helped free hostages. So what. They have done that before.

8. Withdrew from Unesco. You assume that is a good decision.

9. Stock market continues to soar. So does Japans, the EU.

10. Two quarters of 3% growth. That’s not unusual. We’ve have had many quarters of greater than 3% growth since 2008. Go to World Bank facebook (unable to link).

11. Gorsuch: that’s your opinion.

12. Why we elected him: No, you elected him because you were influenced by a Russian troll who sent you Facebook Posts and you watched Fox News. And, were gullible.

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15 Ray Lopez October 30, 2017 at 8:57 pm

Nice point by point rebuttal of Dick by Bill. But Dick wins, since he knows, like the ancient Greeks did, that passion rules reason in the end. The ultra-rational Socrates was given a choice of drinking hemlock poison (true, he could have escaped, but did not out of logical principle of the matter) for not observing custom and corrupting youth, but ironically his last words were to give a sacrifice to the Gods, according to custom, in his name.

Bonus trivia: I always wondered why Socrates Republic is so militaristic, and it’s because, I recently found out, he was influenced by Sparta, which had just beat Athens (due to plague not military superiority really) in the Peloponnesian War. The analogy would be free market thinkers like even Hayek who throw in the towel because they think Communism is the wave of the future (or those apologists who say China, Inc or Japan, Inc are the future because of some temporary advantage they hold).

16 Anon7 October 30, 2017 at 10:41 pm

4. Non-responsive. Only Congress may appropriate money, not the executive. The United States District Court in Washington agreed. And yes, they’re subsidies to try to make that vile Rube Goldberg contraption work.

17 Peter Akuleyev October 31, 2017 at 2:08 am

You are confused. Trump and his 20% base are the ones who hate normal Americans. There is also no definition of American which would include a freak like Trump and his spoiled degenerate family as “normal.”

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18 Anonymous October 31, 2017 at 10:18 am

Don’t you remember that famous war movie where the hero got bone spurs, went clubbing, and then later made fun of American POWs?

19 Borjigid October 30, 2017 at 4:45 pm

Sure, why not?

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20 Albert October 30, 2017 at 4:59 pm

This is fake news — we all know it’s impossible for an old white guy to be named “Jerome Powell”.

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21 Gary Steinmetz October 30, 2017 at 6:04 pm

More or less excellent than Taylor?

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22 Bill October 30, 2017 at 7:12 pm

Do you remember when the Senate denied the appointment of Prof. Peter Diamond to the Federal Reserve Board because he was not a banker, but just an economist.

Powell is a lawyer; not a banker.

Once again, lawyer beats economist.

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23 Donald Pretari October 30, 2017 at 8:52 pm

Trump claims to tell it like it is…Here’s how it is…Jay’s a circle jerk…He is where he is because of where he went to school and who he knows…He didn’t know squat about monetary policy when he was appointed to the Fed…He’s a lawyer…There’s a real dearth of them in D.C., I guess. Can anyone, off the top of their head, give us his views on what caused the events of 2008? When the Triple AAAs were downgraded to crap in 2007, what did he say? When China began selling GMOs in the summer of 2008, what did he say? Did he, like John Taylor, and many Republics, prescribe letting more businesses fail after Lehmann, probably the stupidest plan anyone could advocate? Trump drained the Swamp into the White House, and now he’s doing the same thing to the Fed. Did he warn about derivatives after leaving Banker’s Trust ( You’ve got love that name )?

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24 Anon7 October 30, 2017 at 11:48 pm

“He didn’t know squat about monetary policy when he was appointed to the Fed” in 2012 (much closer to the meltdown) BY President Obama.

There’s not exactly a shortage of economists proffering their views on monetary policy either.

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25 gab October 31, 2017 at 4:57 pm

Obama nominated Powell (a Republican) along with Stein (a Democrat) in the hopes that the Senate, which was controlled by Republicans at the time, would actually hold a vote and fill the open seats.

And, as an aside, Powell would be the richest Fed chair since the 30’s.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that..

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26 Donald Pretari October 31, 2017 at 12:58 am

“His advocacy of a 100% inheritance tax is essential to understanding the man, as was his dislike of northeastern elites, a category to which he was never quite sure if I belonged. ”

I wish he were here. It’s not that I dislike Northeastern elites, it’s that I distrust elites in general. Well, Trump’s elite crowd I might actually dislike.

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27 carlospln October 31, 2017 at 1:21 am

Why?

A bot could do the job.

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28 koala October 31, 2017 at 3:42 am

Taylor? As in Dr. Taylor who invented the Taylor Rule? http://thirdwaveiscoming.blogspot.com/2016/03/q-223.html

If so, I guess he would be more “rule based” compared to some other candidates.

This also reminds me a comment he made on the rapid rise of oil prices “[there was a] was the very sharp reduction in the target federal-funds rate to 2% in April 2008 from 5.25% in August 2007. This was sharper than monetary guidelines such as my own Taylor Rule would prescribe. The most noticeable effect of this rate cut was a sharp depreciation of the dollar and a large increase in oil prices.”. I’ve heard just about three other explanations on the rise of the oil prices at that time, I wonder which is the correct one.

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29 Alan Yelling October 31, 2017 at 6:41 am

No, a rule based approach won’t work for various reasons. The most important of which is that the Fed can’t creditable commitment to keeping their promises. All it takes is an executive order, Congress, or a Supreme Court ruling and we are back to where we started. End the Fed.

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30 Jim October 31, 2017 at 8:32 am

Janet Yellen would be an excellent choice. Why is Powell better? ‘Splain…..

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31 sean October 31, 2017 at 1:45 pm

Powell isn’t ideal to head the fed. He is really an amateur monetary policy guy.

Ideally it would be a professional like yellen or bernanke, scott sumner etc.

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32 dux.ie November 1, 2017 at 3:04 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-30/trump-drags-the-fed-down-into-the-political-mud

“””The fear had been that a president might summon a Fed chair and request easy money to boost his re-election prospects … Along the way, he tells us he has “somebody very specific” in mind, a phrase of literal nonsense but also a subtle denigration of the candidate, by emphasizing the selection and unveiling over the person, and by treating the individual as most of all the object of Trump’s choice. … When Trump wants something from the Fed, maybe he won’t sit down with the Fed chair and issue dictates. … Instead, he’ll let social media and the public debate do his dirty work of politicization for him”””

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/918526598252584962

As if Trump can say it directly. As I said earlier on Oct 13 #2, http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/10/friday-assorted-links-130.html

Trump already hinted at his pick earlier by blowing his dog whistle to give the other candidates a chance to change their stands and in the process forcing his preferred pick to move closer to him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/us/politics/trump-fed-powell-taylor-yellen.html

“””The two men that President Trump is considering as replacements for Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen of the Federal Reserve have sharply different views on monetary policy, offering a stark test of Mr. Trump’s economic priorities.”””

“””Mr. Taylor also favors restraints on other aspects of the Fed’s post-crisis response, including the bond-buying campaign it undertook known as quantitative easing.”””

“””Mr. Taylor has since argued the purchases did no good and that the Fed should be restricted from buying mortgage bonds, because that provides support for a particular kind of borrowing a decision that belongs to fiscal policymakers.”””

“””Mr. Powell, by contrast, has defended the utility of the bond-buying campaign and argued that the new mechanics allow the Fed to control interest rates more effectively.”””

“””Mr. Trump’s first pick for the board, Randal K. Quarles, the Fed’s vice chairman of supervision, has expressed support for Mr. Taylor’s approach to monetary policy.”””

He did not hear the whistle.
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