Dept. of Just Wait, central banker edition

by on November 1, 2017 at 10:39 am in Uncategorized | Permalink

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Tuesday brushed off the notion that researchers can use artificial intelligence to analyze his facial expressions and predict changes in monetary policy.

Kuroda spoke in response to questions about two artificial intelligence researchers, one from Nomura Securities (8604.T) and the other from Microsoft (MSFT.O), who are using software to analyze split-second changes in Kuroda’s facial expressions at his post-meeting press conferences.

The study claims that at news conferences that preceded two recent major policy changes, Kuroda flashed brief signs of “anger” and “disgust”.

Here is the full story, via David Wessel.

1 Pshrnk November 1, 2017 at 10:41 am

If he would just start tweeting we wouldn’t need the AI.

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2 The Other Jim November 1, 2017 at 12:31 pm

Came here to say that. Another win for Trump!

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3 A Truth Seeker November 1, 2017 at 1:22 pm

If he imitated Mr. Trump, we would still need the AI to understand what is behind the Incomprehensible harangues. I think narional leaders should behave in a dignified way. President Temer, for instance, speaks and behaves as the accomplished professor and statesman (one of the framers of Brazil’s Constitution) he is. His famous letter ending his alliance with former President Rousseff was rich with classical resources: http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/brazil/2015/12/1716327-brazil-vice-president-accuses-president-rousseff-of-mistrust-and-contempt-in-letter.shtml

A leader’s demeanor reflects on the people he leads – as it should.

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4 Dick the Butcher November 1, 2017 at 5:04 pm

Congratulations. You write good English. It’s nearly all bull shit but spread in well-composed English.

In Trump We Trust.

Trump2020!

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5 A Truth Seeker November 1, 2017 at 6:08 pm

Thank you very much. I have read Mr. Thomas Paine and Mr. Martin Gardner’s works in English.
Mr. Trump can’t be elected in 2020. No man older than 73 has ever won the presidency. Besides, according to American site Newsmax.com, America’s economy is heading to a deep recession. Recessions favor the party outside the White House, which, under the current circumstances, means the Democratic Party. Also, it seems clear that the world’s Zeitgeist is moving against’s Trump’s followers’ Weltanschauung. The terrorist attack in NYC, for instance, would not have been prevented by Trump’s fabled travel ban. Neither would the Boston Marathon attack nor 9/11 have been prevented. Another problem: the jobs who were sent to Red China or swalled by automatization are not coming back.

Trumpism seems to embody to the highest degree the thought traditionaly (if mistakenly) attributed to H. L. Mencken: “There is always an easy solution to every human problem — neat, plausible, and wrong.”

Such is life in America.

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6 NPW November 1, 2017 at 10:56 am

Lie to me, Kuroda

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7 A Truth Seeker November 1, 2017 at 11:24 am

So he is not inscrutable?

The Japanese regime is hypocritical: http://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/1993/06/04. When will the Japanese apologize for their crimes and srop slandering other peoples?

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8 rayward November 1, 2017 at 11:27 am

Is this where big data and quants are taking us? Why not convict someone of a crime before she commits it based on facial expressions that evidence an intent to commit one. Of course, the technique to avoid such a conviction, which could be called the Trump Preemption, is to actually say outlandish things and to make outlandish facial expressions so nothing one says or does can be the basis for what one might actually do. In his press conferences Kuroda needs to act like Trump and nobody will be able to predict what he intends to do according to what he says or his facial expressions. We are all Straussians now!

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9 So Much For Subtlety November 1, 2017 at 7:47 pm

I would think that most policemen do become convinced of someone’s innocence or otherwise based on their facial expressions. You question a suspect and they laugh at the wrong time or smile at the wrong thing and hey presto, you have your suspect.

I don’t see that having a machine do this is much worse than having a lower middle class White middle aged man of somewhat limited intelligence do it.

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10 John B. Chilton November 1, 2017 at 11:40 am

Under the current thinking shouldn’t FED chairs welcome this technology? — assuming it is reliable. Just a reinforcing means of improving communication.

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11 Bob November 1, 2017 at 11:53 am

As Tyler has said recently, AI is part of the future of finance. Part of the road that will make bad credit risks, or anyone who resembles a bad credit risk, lose access to credit, investment, and even apartment rental, is people doing silly things like taking individual mood analysis very seriously. Hopefully it amounts to nothing: otherwise, I can’t wait to have kids not getting access to the best schools because an algorithm doesn’t rank their smile high enough.

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12 Tin Man November 1, 2017 at 12:00 pm

Good luck in piercing through a culture that has https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honne_and_tatemae !
And how will AI bots fare reading the clammy post-plastic surgery faces of increasingly gerontocratic leaders (including those of the US)?

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13 Glenn Mercer November 1, 2017 at 1:03 pm

Three options come to mind:

1. Hire a poker player as the head of the Fed… such players spend years trying to erase their “tells”

2. Hire Jim Carrey as the Fed chair, and insist he go “full Ace Ventura” during each press conference: this will overload the AI (grin)

3. Hire someone with Moebius Syndrome (“a rare disorder characterized by lifetime facial paralysis; people with it can’t smile or frown, and they often can’t blink or move their eyes from side to side”). (Before the Outrage Machine kicks in, I am not trying to make fun of people with this Syndrome.)

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14 msgkings November 1, 2017 at 1:18 pm

Or 4. Just put the AI in charge of the central banks

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15 TMC November 1, 2017 at 2:29 pm

I like that, and make the code open source so all will be seen.

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16 Anonymous November 2, 2017 at 8:18 am

No, make it proprietary and then have another AI try to read subtle hints from the output of this AI to predict monetary policy.

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17 roadrunner November 1, 2017 at 2:14 pm

Can I use the software in a bar to determine if I’m going to get somewhere with the lovely lass I’m chatting up?

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18 celestus November 1, 2017 at 3:06 pm

Until out of sample predictions are made…http://old.post-gazette.com/headlines/19980927write2.asp

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19 Chip November 1, 2017 at 7:05 pm

At least he’s still human. Check out this link and look at all those people.

http://research.nvidia.com/publication/2017-10_Progressive-Growing-of

Not a single one is human. They were all created by AI. Anyone thinking of becoming an actor, news anchor or TV personality of any sort should stop now.

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20 Bruce Cleaver November 1, 2017 at 9:17 pm

Yeah, I saw that. Extremely impressive. We are *way* past the uncanny valley now.

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