Category: Sports
My Conversation with Vishy Anand
In Chennai I recorded with chess great Vishy Anand, here is the transcript, audio, and video, note the chess analysis works best on YouTube, for those of you who follow such things (you don’t have to for most of the dialogue). Here is the episode summary:
Tyler and Vishy sat down in Chennai to discuss his breakthrough 1991 tournament win in Reggio Emilia, his technique for defeating Kasparov in rapid play, how he approached playing the volatile but brilliant Vassily Ivanchuk at his peak, a detailed breakdown of his brilliant 2013 game against Levon Aronian, dealing with distraction during a match, how he got out of a multi-year slump, Monty Python vs. Fawlty Towers, the most underrated Queen song, how far to take chess opening preparation, which style of chess will dominate in the next ten years, how AlphaZero changes what we know about the game, the key to staying a top ten player at age 53, why he thinks he’s a worse loser than Kasparov, qualities he looks for in talented young Indian chess players, picks for the best places to eat in Chennai, and more.
Here is one excerpt:
COWEN: Do you hate losing as much as Kasparov does?
ANAND: To me, it seems he isn’t even close to me, but I admit I can’t see him from the inside, and he probably can’t see me from the inside. When I lose, I can’t imagine anyone in the world who loses as badly as I do inside.
COWEN: You think you’re the worst at losing?
ANAND: At least that I know of. A couple of years ago, whenever people would say, “But how are you such a good loser?” I’d say, “I’m not a good loser. I’m a good actor.” I know how to stay composed in public. I can even pretend for five minutes, but I can only do it for five minutes because I know that once the press conference is over, once I can finish talking to you, I can go back to my room and hit my head against the wall because that’s what I’m longing to do now.
In fact, it’s gotten even worse because as you get on, you think, “I should have known that. I should have known that. I should have known not to do that. What is the point of doing this a thousand times and not learning anything?” You get angry with yourself much more. I hate losing much more, even than before.
COWEN: There’s an interview with Magnus on YouTube, and they ask him to rate your sanity on a scale of 1 to 10 — I don’t know if you’ve seen this — and he gives you a 10. Is he wrong?
ANAND: No, he’s completely right. He’s completely right. Sanity is being able to show the world that you are sane even when you’re insane. Therefore I’m 11.
COWEN: [laughs] Overall, how happy a lot do you think top chess players are? Say, top 20 players?
ANAND: I think they’re very happy.
Most of all, I was struck by how good a psychologist Vishy is. Highly recommended, and you also can see whether or not I can keep up with Vishy in his chess analysis. Note I picked a game of his from ten years ago (against Aronian), and didn’t tell him in advance which game it would be.
In which sector are the top performers stupidest?
One of my core views is that the most successful performers in most (not all) areas are extremely smart and talented. So if you are one of the (let’s say) top fifty global performers in an area, you are likely to be one sharp cookie, even if the form of your intelligence is quite different from that in say academia or the tech world.
You might that a sport such as basketball selects for height, and thus its top performers are not all that mentally impressive. But I’ve spent a lot of time consuming the words of Lebron James, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (including a podcast and a dinner with the latter), and I am firmly convinced they are all extremely intelligent. From what I’ve read about supermodels, they are also an extremely intelligent group at the very top. There are many good-looking women, but managing your career to get to the top in a non-self-destructive fashion still requires extreme talent.
In general, most forms of top achievement involve knowing how to practice and knowing how to manage your career, both of which are likely to select for both smarts and determination.
So what then is the area where top performers are just not that smart? Comments are open.
Markets in everything, hockey romance edition
Posters gravitate to players who remind them of their favorite book boyfriends, and one popular choice is Seattle Kraken center Alex Wennberg. His team initially courted BookTok with posts and hashtags in the same style, and flew out a popular creator for a playoff game…
Within the subcategory of sports romance, hockey dominates. Right now, all 10 of the top sports romances on Amazon involve hockey.
Here is the full story.
Shadow Effects of Tennis Superstars
In multi-stage tournaments, anticipated competition in future stages might affect the outcome of competition in the current stage. In particular, the presence of super- stars might demotivate the next-best competitors from seeking to advance to later rounds, where they ultimately are likely to face a superstar. Data from men’s professional tennis tournaments held between 2004 and 2019 affirm that the participation of superstars (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray) reduces the probability that the remaining Top 20 players win their matches. Such shadow effects arise even in very early tournament stages, in which favoured players lose more often than expected, given their ability. The effects are more pronounced when multiple superstars com- pete in the tournament and disappear once all superstars have been eliminated from competition. Furthermore, shadow effects increase the probability of retirement of strong but non-superstar competitors and disappear once superstar performance is not dominant.
That is from a new paper by Christian Deutscher, Lena Neuberg, and Stefan Thiem, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The economics of NBA contracts
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt:
The Boston Celtics just set an NBA record by agreeing to a five-year, $304 million contract with two-time All-Star Jaylen Brown. The obvious question is whether any single basketball player can be worth that much money — especially someone who is not even the best player on his team, much less on a par with Lebron James, Stephen Curry or any number of other shoo-in hall of famers.
I’m not here to make predictions about Brown’s career. But the odds are the deal will be seen as a good one — maybe even a bargain. The economics of the National Basketball Association have been shifting toward more and more money.
This trend is evident in the rising value not just of players but of teams. Last year the Phoenix Suns sold for $4 billion (with the WNBA’s Phoenix Mercury). To put that number in perspective, the Brooklyn Nets sold for $3.3 billion in 2019, the Houston Rockets sold for $2.2 billion in 2017, and the Atlanta Hawks sold for a mere $850 million in 2015.
Much of the rest of the column considers the impact of foreign money on other sports, and perhaps someday the NBA:
And then there is the growing internationalization of capital in sports, which will buttress high prices for both players and teams. This trend goes beyond American basketball: One Saudi Arabian club, Al-Hilal, has offered French soccer star Kylian Mbapp é $333 million to play next year in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are already paying Cristiano Ronaldo $220 million over two years. Lionel Messi turned the Saudis down, but surely the offer increased his bargaining power with MSL’s Inter Miami, where his deal is valued at $50 to $60 million annually.
Might the Saudis consider something similar for a US basketball star? Lebron James already tweeted that he would gladly accept a comparable offer, and many others would accept far less.
The Desert Kingdom would probably have a hard time putting together a full NBA-like season with 30 teams. But it could bring in more European or other foreign players to its current league, shorten the season, or feature 3-on-3 games. In addition to wealth, they need to rely on innovation.
These scenarios don’t have to happen to serve as a check on NBA management or owners.
Qatar owns five percent of the Washington Wizards, we will see if this becomes a larger basketball trend or not.
Work from home, and golf
1) Working from Home (WFH) has powered a huge boom in golfing
2) Golfers are playing more golf on weekdays, for example 143% more on Wednesday in 2022 vs 2019
3) Golfers are playing more mid-afternoon, for example 278% more on Wednesday 4pm in 2022 vs 2019
Here is more from Alex Finan and Nick Bloom.
NBA (CEO) fact of the day
“there are now more NBA players with $30 million annual salaries than CEOs of S&P 500 companies who are guaranteed that much.”
Here is further information.
Wemby
He clearly is a special and multi-faceted talent, but I am worried. Most of all, I am worried by his body shape, which reminds me of both Pervis Ellison and Shawn Bradley, with a height somewhere in between those two. Players with that kind of physique typically have problems a) avoiding injuries, and b) avoiding foul trouble (they are not always strong enough to hold their ground, they tend to reach a lot, and they tend to be fooled by fakes).
So can he stay on the court? I am not picking him to win Rookie of the Year, as some big men take much longer to develop (I am looking more at the five blocks than the 2-13 shooting in his Summer League debut). Let’s hope he gets the chance.
My excellent Conversation with Seth Godin
Here is the audio, video, and transcript from a very good session. Here is part of the episode summary:
Seth joined Tyler to discuss why direct marketing works at all, the marketing success of Trader Joe’s vs Whole Foods, why you can’t reverse engineer Taylor Swift’s success, how Seth would fix baseball, the brilliant marketing in ChatGPT’s design, the most underrated American visual artist, the problem with online education, approaching public talks as a team process, what makes him a good cook, his updated advice for aspiring young authors, how growing up in Buffalo shaped him, what he’ll work on next, and more.
Here is one excerpt:
COWEN: If you were called in as a consultant to professional baseball, what would you tell them to do to keep the game alive?
GODIN: [laughs] I am so glad I never was a consultant.
What is baseball? In most of the world, no one wants to watch one minute of baseball. Why do we want to watch baseball? Why do the songs and the Cracker Jack and the sounds matter to some people and not to others? The answer is that professional sports in any country that are beloved, are beloved because they remind us of our parents. They remind us of a different time in our lives. They are comfortable but also challenging. They let us exchange status roles in a safe way without extraordinary division.
Baseball was that for a very long time, but then things changed. One of the things that changed is that football was built for television and baseball is not. By leaning into television, which completely terraformed American society for 40 years, football advanced in a lot of ways.
Baseball is in a jam because, on one hand, like Coke and New Coke, you need to remind people of the old days. On the other hand, people have too many choices now.
And another:
COWEN: What is the detail you have become most increasingly pessimistic about?
GODIN: I think that our ability to rationalize our lazy, convenient, selfish, immoral, bad behavior is unbounded, and people will find a reason to justify the thing that they used to do because that’s how we evolved. One would hope that in the face of a real challenge or actual useful data, people would say, “Oh, I was wrong. I just changed my mind.” It’s really hard to do that.
There was a piece in The Times just the other day about the bibs that long-distance runners wear at races. There is no reason left for them to wear bibs. It’s not a big issue. Everyone should say, “Oh, yeah, great, done.” But the bib defenders coming out of the woodwork, explaining, each in their own way, why we need bibs for people who are running in races — that’s just a microcosm of the human problem, which is, culture sticks around because it’s good at sticking around. But sometimes we need to change the culture, and we should wake up and say, “This is a good day to change the culture.”
COWEN: So, we’re all bib defenders in our own special ways.
GODIN: Correct! Well said. Bib Defenders. That’s the name of the next book. Love that.
COWEN: What is, for you, the bib?
GODIN: I think that I have probably held onto this 62-year-old’s perception of content and books and thoughtful output longer than the culture wants to embrace, the same way lots of artists have held onto the album as opposed to the single. But my goal isn’t to be more popular, and so I’m really comfortable with the repercussions of what I’ve held onto.
Recommended, interesting throughout. And here is Seth’s new book The Song of Significance: A New Manifesto for Teams.
Undervalued talent in the NBA playoffs
With the underdog Miami Heat ahead of the Celtics 3-0, and the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Lakers 3-0, it is time to assess a lesson or two.
As for Miami, four of their key players — Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson — were undrafted altogether. This is not only a lesson in talent spotting, it is a lesson of talent development. Those four players have accounted for about forty percent (ESPN gate) of Miami’s points this season. No one on Miami made the All-Star team in 2023.
How about Denver? Jokic, if he proves durable, could end up as one of the top ten players of all time. He was a second-round draft pick (#41), snagged perceptively by Denver and then given a chance to develop, which took a few years. Only Jokic made the All-Star team this year. KCP, a key player for Denver, was let go by the Lakers two years ago and then the Wizards a year ago. Now he is an essential contributor, most of all against the Lakers. (Who even remembers who Denver gave up to get him?) The second best Denver player, Jamal Murray, was picked #7 in 2016. If Philadelphia had deployed their number one pick on him, instead of Ben Simmons, who basically refused to play, they probably would be winning a title right now.
So the potential gains to being good at talent selection are very real indeed. Not every major contributors starts off as a Lebron James or a Victor Wembanyama.
Modeling the current NBA
The surprise, and the irony, is that the more good players there are, the more important the great ones have become. The proliferation of offensive threats has meant that defenses can’t train their attention all on one person; that means that there are better shots for the best players to take, and the best players have become even better at making them. They have more room to drive to the basket, where shots are hyper-efficient. They are more practiced and skilled at hitting long threes. They are better at drawing fouls and savvier about off-ball movement, picks, and screens. Most of all, perhaps, they can pass, and the threat of those passes makes them harder to defend. More than ever, offenses revolve around a single star—a phenomenon that many around the N.B.A. have taken to calling heliocentrism, a term that the Athletic writer Seth Partnow used in a 2019 column describing the Dallas Mavericks star Luka Dončić. Hero ball “didn’t go away,” Kirk Goldsberry, an ESPN analyst, told the podcast “ESPN Daily.” “It just went to M.I.T., got a degree in analytics, and rebranded as heliocentrism.”
Do black NBA players play better without the fans?
In the NBA, predominantly Black players play in front of predominantly non-Black fans. Using the ‘NBA bubble’, a natural experiment induced by COVID-19, we show that the performance of Black players improved significantly with the absence of fans vis-\`a-vis White players. This is consistent with Black athletes being negatively affected by racial pressure from mostly non-Black audiences. We control for player, team, and game fixed-effects, and dispel alternative mechanisms. Beyond hurting individual players, racial pressure causes significant economic damage to NBA teams by lowering the performance of top athletes and the quality of the game.
That kind of causal mechanism is difficult to demonstrate, but perhaps there is something to this. Alternatively, how about the “fewer distractions in the bubble effect”? Entourage effect? etc. How could they miss this possibility? Here is the full paper by Mauro Caselli, Paolo Falco, and Babak Somekh. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
How young did the person start?
By the time he was in the sixth grade, Larry [Summers] had created a system to calculate the probability that a baseball team would make it to the playoffs in October based on its performance through the Fourth of July. In 1965 the Philadelphia Bulletin described Summers as the most qualified eleven-year-old oddsmaker in baseball.
That is from the new and very good Jon Hilsenrath book on Janet Yellen.
Who are the richest athletes in the world?
These numbers are surely inexact, but still this piece makes for interesting reading. Excerpt:
4. Anna Kasprzak
Net Worth: $1 Billion
Anna Kasprzak is a Danish dressage rider who has represented Denmark in the Summer Olympics in 2012 and 2016. Kasprzak is considered to be one of the best dressage riders in the world and she has won multiple medals throughout her career.
As of August 2022, Anna Kasprzak’s net worth is estimated to be $1 billion.
Was not on my Bingo card. Nor was Vinnie Johnson, who clocks in at $400 million! The Human Microwave to be sure…
Like father (and mother), like son
You may have seen the Golden State Warriorrs just won another NBA title. The backgrounds of so many of their top players are striking:
Stephen Curry: Commonly considered the greatest basketball shooter of all time, his father was All-Star Dell Curry, shooting guard and one of the best shooters of his era.
Klay Thompson: Father Mychal Thompson, an NBA All-Star level player.
Gary Payton II: Father Gary Payton, Hall of Famer point guard and defensive stopper, known as “The Glove.” The son is not an All-Star caliber player but he is a top contributor on defense.
Andrew Wiggins: Son of Mitchell Wiggins, well-known NBA player in the 1980s. Mitchell Wiggins led the Houston Rockets to a key game five victory over the Boston Celtics in 1986, Andrew Wiggins did the same in 2022. And Andrew’s mother won two silver medals for track and field in the 1984 Olympics.
Otto Porter, Jr.:”His father, Otto Porter Sr., was part of Scott County Central High School’s first title in 1976 and holds the high school record with 1,733 rebounds. His mother, Elnora Porter (née Timmons), helped the same school win the 1984 state championship.”
Jordan Poole: Father Anthony Poole advertises himself as “Wisconsin playground elite coach” on Twitter.
Kevon Looney: His cousin Nick Young played in the NBA.
We do not know much about the biological father of Draymond Green.
And those are the top players on the Golden State Warriors.
Addendum: I hadn’t known that Steve Kerr, the coach, was son of Malcolm Kerr, a well-known university professor and then university president (American University in Beirut) who was killed by terrorists in Lebanon in 1984.