Results for “sri lanka”
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Progress in Sri Lanka

…for Sri Lanka, the only country in the region to default on its official debt amid the economic squeeze caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war, these are sunny days.

Tourism revenue and remittances from Sri Lankan workers overseas have come roaring back. Inflation, which reached 70% last September, was back down to 6.3% in July. As a result, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka has cut its benchmark interest rate by 4.5 percentage points since June…

To win the IMF’s support, Colombo took hard but much-needed steps to increase fuel and electricity prices as well as raise tax rates and extend the tax net. A new central bank governor raised benchmark interest rates by 8 percentage points over the course of 2022 to try to put a lid on inflation and bring a degree of macroeconomic stability…

The IMF, which approved support for Colombo in March, estimates Sri Lanka’s current-account deficit will be around 1.5% of gross domestic product from this year onward. This would be a manageable and normal level for any developing country that is a net importer of fuel and food.

Here is the full Nikkei story, via AM Livingston.

How to eat well in Sri Lanka

Food here is excellent, but eating well involves some counterintuitive advice.

For one thing, there are few “undiscovered gems” along the roadways.  It is just not a thing here, and several Sri Lanka residents have confirmed this to me (one person suggested there used to be lots of them, but they have faded).  During my extensive road travels, I saw many many closed, empty, or otherwise deserted roadside restaurants.  The open ones had few or no customers.  So don’t put a lot of time into searching for them.  You will do just fine eating at the obvious restaurants, including hotel restaurants.

Often breakfast is the best meal, as you can sample hoppers and string hoppers.  If they will cook a hopper for you with an egg (and spices) inside, do that.  Think of it as a spongy carbohydrate turned into a kind of crepe.  The egg inside should not be overdone, but the woman cooking it for you has done this 7,834 times before, so probably it will be just right.

When you get string hoppers, it is all a matter of composition.  Put the right spices, sauces, and sambals on top.  Ask for assistance.  The quality of the string hoppers varies only marginally, it is really all about your skills at composition and at asking for aid.

Hoppers and string hoppers are pretty much always very good.  You want to keep on ordering them.  And yes, food in Sri Lanka is somewhat of an exercise in repeated monotony, but it is a very appealing repeated monotony.

Vegetables in Sri Lanka are first-rate, and if you visit the vegetable markets in and near Dambulla you will come away impressed.  If you are served just ordinary broccoli or cauliflower, without spice or garnish, it will be as good as anywhere.

The best vegetable to eat Sri Lankan style is the green beans.  Never turn them down.  Overall, Sri Lanka is one of the very best countries for vegetarians or vegans.  You’ll see many other kinds of curry, such as with jackfruit or manioc, and they are not bad, but once you have tried them you will be returning to the green beans.

The lentils are consistently superb, arguably better overall than in India, though in fewer styles.  Keep on ordering them.

Thou shalt not refuse any curry served with cashews in it.

If you are at a buffet, sample any item that has a small green leaf in the sauce.  Sample any item with an unusual name, with “tempered cowpeas” being one but not the only example.

Beware of buffets designed for Russian or Chinese package tourists, though usually there will be hoppers or string hoppers somewhere to be had.

Coconut roti is a wonderful snack, but you should not eat too many of them, either at once or across the course of a lifetime.

There is the usual array of tropical fruits, high in quality, though to be frank most of them bore me at this point.

Both pork and bacon are excellent (and common) in Sri Lanka.  The pork is much better than the beef.  So far I’ve had better luck with shrimp than with fish, though I don’t feel I’ve cracked the cultural codes yet for seafood.  Some love Sri Lankan crab, but I haven’t had the chance to explore that direction.

Western-style baked goods are by no means a total disaster here, and it is not a mistake to try them.  The high quality is supposed to stem from the earlier Portuguese influence, at least if you can believe llama Chat.

Aqua Forte, in Galle, is a Michelin star-quality Italian restaurant with affordable prices.  The chef is from Trentino.  The cured raw fish with pistachios is one of the best courses I’ve had in years.

In Colombo, Monsoon is a good Asian fusion place, get the beef rendang.  Shang Palace is a good Chinese restaurant.

In sum, you can eat very well here at great prices and booking doesn’t ever seem to be a problem.  You do need to be willing to double and triple down on some items, but don’t worry — you’ll like them!

Addendum: The perceptive reader will note I have covered only the food of southern Sri Lanka.  That is also the part of the country — by far — that you are most likely to visit.

Sri Lanka travel notes

Have you ever been to a perfect spot and wished “there should be an amazing hotel right there, except I want the hotel without any accompanying crowding or corruptions of tourism?”

If that is your desire, Sri Lanka is the country for you.  (Who cares if that is an apparent violation of the laws of economics and location theory?)  If you have visited Sri Lanka, likely you will know what I mean — it is simply so nice.  So much the right blend of exotic and comfortable.  It feels so unspoilt, so fresh, and so natural.  So easy on the visitor, as if it were a well-run state of India with a big dose of Buddhism and a vaguely Caribbean vibe, and without the extreme population density.

Here was my Kandalama hotel, let the link rotate through all the images.

Here is my current hotel, only about 30 or 40 feet away from one of the world’s major Buddhist temple complexes, medieval and mostly dating from the 12th century.  None of it is close to expensive, no matter how high the quality.

Galle, on the southern coast, is a lovely colonial city, largely intact, with notable Dutch, Portuguese, and British buildings, as well as mosques.  It is ringed by an old fort, and has numerous good views of the ocean.  Everything is walkable.  Russians are the single largest tourist group there (no visa required), and yet the town does not feel overwhelmed, even on the cusp of August.  Try Galle Fort Hotel, which is also a UNESCO heritage site.

There is an aesthetic look to so many things.  If a farmer builds a tree house so he can monitor his crops at night without being stomped by elephants, the tree house will be pretty nice, even though the farmer is poor.

So much of Sri Lanka feels like the 1980s, in a way that is good for you but not good for them.  On the plus side, education, literacy (92%), and social indicators are high.  Life expectancy is higher than in the United States.  You can drive around deep into the rural areas, and you just won’t see extreme poverty.  Nor are the drivers crazy, so the travel isn’t stressful.  The country never seems internet-obsessed.

The total fertility rate is currently about 2.0, a blessing in the short run but likely a disaster over time.  At about 4k per capita income (about 14k PPP), Sri Lanka cannot afford to grow old before it becomes wealthy.  And I can assure you, it is not on the verge of becoming wealthy.

The important buildings — and there are many of them — are all of earlier vintages.  The hotels of Geoffrey Bawa — in a style sometimes called “tropical modernism” — are of special interest.  Simply tracking down all of the Bawa hotels would be a good way of organizing your trip.  Sri Lanka is one of the few countries in the world where the very nice old architecture and the very nice newer architecture bear some aesthetic relation to each other.

Did I mention this?:

In 2022, with its GDP contracting by 7.8%, Sri Lanka was one of the worst performing economies in the world. Annual inflation was around 60%, and the currency depreciated by over 80%. These quantifiable measures of pain were exacerbated by severe shortages and uncertainty in accessing fuel, gas and medicines. Daily power cuts became normalized.

Living standards remain lower, yet visible signs of those earlier troubles are gone.  The infrastructure now works once again, yet the country feels psychically scarred by the recent economic collapse.

One Sri Lankan MR reader, with whom I chatted, argued that the country has no person or not even a group “in charge” at the wheel.  So small problems drift and sometimes turn into major crises.  The country’s “immune system” simply is not functioning.

It is striking that none of the major parties have good ideas, as there is mainly corrupt oligarchy or Marxists.  Liberalism is nowhere to be seen.  Behind the scenes, Sri Lanka is a country that outside parties (most of all China and India, earlier the colonial powers) have cared about far too much.  It never feels like there is a stable political equilibrium upon which to build, because the outsiders have so much power.

Internally, they still have not generated a true consensus on what the country is about, and if they are all willing to live in peace with each other.  As one of my drivers put it succinctly: “I don’t like the other religions.”

With textiles and tea as the major exports, the country shows no signs of moving up the value chain. Nonetheless Sri Lanka remains richer per capita than India.  And easier to handle, albeit far less dynamic.  Someone could write a very Sri Lankan version of “the complacent class.”

How good is Buddhism for economic growth anyway?

I will do a separate post on food in Sri Lanka.

The fall of Sri Lanka

After the end of a devastating 26-year civil war in 2009, the island of 22mn had the makings of an Asian economic success story. Under governments run by the powerful Rajapaksa family, annual economic growth peaked at 9 per cent. By 2019, the World Bank had classified the island as an upper-middle income country. Sri Lankans enjoyed a per capita income double that of neighbours such as India, along with longer lifespans thanks to strong social services such as healthcare and education. The country tapped international debt lenders to rebuild, becoming a key private Asian bond issuer and participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

And yet now everything is in tatters (that passage is from a very good FT piece).  Here is one bit:

Sri Lanka’s reserves have fallen from $7.5bn in November 2019 to the point where finding $1mn is “a challenge”, Wickremesinghe, the new prime minister, said in an address last week. This has meant shortages of not only fuel but food and medicine, with hospitals forced to postpone surgeries. The country has the worst inflation in Asia at about 30 per cent in April and the currency has almost halved in value since it was floated in March. The UN Development Programme says that nearly half the population is in danger of falling below the poverty line, and warns of a looming humanitarian crisis as the urban poor and former middle class begin to cut back on meals.

And:

“Most people are down to one meal a day”, says her neighbour, Mohammad Akram, “but are embarrassed to admit it.”

I believe we have not yet internalized how rapidly a middle income country can fall from grace and into utter chaos.

Is Sri Lanka becoming a failed state?

The economic crisis is a result of mismanagement by the Rajapaksa administration (and its predecessors) as well as Sri Lanka’s vulnerability to external shocks. The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have had a devastating impact. The Rajapaksas pursued populist economic policies — including unaffordable fuel and food subsidies and printing money to finance them — that spurred inflation. The president was heavily criticized for a disastrous “100% organic” policy that aimed to reduce the strain on foreign currency reserves by banning the import of chemical fertilizers. The policy resulted in slashed agricultural output at a time when food supplies were already running low and prices were soaring.

Meanwhile, foreign tourism — a key source of jobs, economic growth, and foreign currency — fell after the 2019 Easter bombings and then collapsed during the pandemic. The spike in international commodity prices, which has been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has piled further economic pressure on Sri Lanka. The country relies heavily on imports of food, fuel, and other essential goods to feed the people and keep the lights on.

Here is more from GZero.

Update on the Sri Lanka Organic Farming Disaster

In Organic Disaster I wrote:

Sri Lanka’s President abruptly banned chemical fertilizers earlier this year in a bid to become 100% organic. The ban has resulted in reduced production and soaring prices that, together with declining tourism and the pandemic, have created an economic crisis.

Here is the latest update:

Sri Lanka has announced compensation for more than a million rice farmers whose crops failed under a botched scheme to establish the world’s first 100-percent organic farming nation.

…The government will pay 40,000 million rupees ($200m) to farmers whose harvests were affected by the chemical fertiliser ban, agriculture minister Mahindananda Aluthgamage said on Tuesday.

“We are providing compensation to rice farmers whose crops were destroyed,” he told reporters. “We will also compensate those whose yields suffered without proper fertiliser.”

The government will spend another $149m on a price subsidy for rice farmers, he added.

About a third of Sri Lanka’s agricultural land was left dormant last year because of the import ban.

A good example of central planning in action.

What will Austro-Sri Lankan business cycle theory look like?

The world’s poorest countries face a $10.9bn surge in debt repayments this year after many rebuffed an international relief effort and instead turned to the capital markets to fund their responses to the coronavirus pandemic.

A group of 74 low-income nations will have to repay an estimated $35bn to official bilateral and private-sector lenders during 2022, according to the World Bank, up 45 per cent from 2020, the most recent data available.

One of the most vulnerable countries is Sri Lanka, where the rating agency S&P Global last week warned of a possible default this year as it downgraded the country’s sovereign bonds. Investors are also concerned about Ghana, El Salvador and Tunisia, among others.

Here is more from the FT.  Not surprisingly, China is warning against rapid Fed rate hikes.

Model this for Sri Lanka Indian Coasean spite value

  • India is buying Sri Lanka’s second-largest airport, despite it only handling a dozen passengers a day.
  • China recently took control of a nearby port that opens up significant trade routes, and India is worried about China’s growing role in the Indian Ocean.
  • Experts say the $300 million investment by India is an attempt to limit China’s ability to operate its port as a naval site.

Here is the story, via the excellent Samir Varma.  India/China remains one of the world’s big stories…

Sri Lanka notes

If you go to cross the street, cars actually will stop for you.

It’s a lovely country to visit.  It is exotic, quite safe (these days), and it’s much cleaner than I had been expecting.  Both of my guidebooks claim the food is mediocre, but you can find excellent Sri Lankan dishes by going to small restaurants and paying less than a dollar (the actual restaurant scene does seem underdeveloped, though the places in the Cinnamon Grand are quite good).  Just look for places where everyone is eating with their hands.

Order any vegetarian dish with cashews or a cashew sauce.

The place feels like an odd mix of Thailand and, of all places, Curacao.  The old capital, Kandy, is vaguely reminiscent of Nara, Japan in its overall presentation and its feel of Buddhist classicism.

Interior design seems to be their area of greatest accomplishment.  The relevant sites are numerous but spread out.

The literacy rate is about 92%.  A visit to Sri Lanka will increase your opinion of “water transport” theories of high social indicators.

Here is an update on where ethnic tensions stand.

The Chinese are trying to buy them off with infrastructure, most of all port facilities.

The coconuts are orange.

I thank Yana for useful conversations related to this post.

My favorite things Sri Lanka

This is a tough one, and I admit failure in advance, and yes I will call upon the diaspora in this case.  But even that doesn’t much help me.  Here goes:

1. Popular music: M.I.A., with Arular and then Kala being my favorite works by her.

2. Science fiction writer, lived in: Arthur C. Clarke lived there for over fifty years.

3. Author: Michael Ondaatje was born in Sri Lanka, I like but do not love his work.  Two quite recent Sri Lankan novels are Michelle de Kretser, Questions of Travel, and Ru Freeman, On Sal Mal Lane, both noteworthy.

4. Movie, set in: I can’t think of one.  Bridge on the River Kwai was filmed here.

5. Architect: Geoffrey Bawa, some images are here.

Is Lal Jayawardena the most famous Sri Lankan economist?  And I have had excellent Sri Lankan food in Germany, most of all in Berlin.  There is a takeaways Sri Lankan place in Derwood, Maryland, Spice Lanka, which I have yet to try.  When I was much younger, the Sri Lankan chess player Sunil Weeramantry was always very cordial to me.  And my grandmother had a Sri Lankan friend who, when I was a small boy, used to bring us cashews.  I liked him.  I think of the music — perhaps unfairly — as falling into the “raucous, influenced by cinema, good jolly fun but I’m not going to buy it” category, but I would gladly receive your better-informed recommendations in the comments.

Sorry people, I’ll try harder next time.  I don’t follow cricket and I know virtually nothing about cinema here, I hope to learn more.

What I’ve been reading

Rob Henderson, Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class.  Yes, that is the Rob Henderson of Twitter and Substack.  He was raised by foster parents and joined the Air Force at the age of seventeen.  He ended up with a Ph.D. from Cambridge.  This is his story, it covers class in America, and it is a paean to family stability.

There Were Giants in the Land: Episodes in the Life of W. Cleon Skousen.  Compiled and edited by Jo Ann and Mark Skousen.  If you are interested in LDS, one approach is to read The Book of Mormon.  Another option is to read a book like this one.  It is also, coming from a very different direction, a paean to family stability.

Thomas Bell, Kathmandu.  There should be more books about individual cities, and this is one of them, one of the best in fact.  Excerpt: “At its most local levels, of the neighbourhood, or the individual house, Kathmandu is ordered by religious concepts, either around holy stones, or divinely sanctioned carpentry and bricklaying techniques.  The same is true of the city as a whole.”  And how do they still have so many Maoists?

Out of Sri Lanka: Tamil, Sinhala & English Poetry from Sri Lanka and its Diasporas, edited by Vidyan Ravinthiran, Seni Seneviratne, and Shash Trevett.  A truly excellent collection, worthy of making the best non-fiction of 2023 list.  Or does this count as fiction?  It’s mostly about things that happened.

Eric H. Cline, After 1177 B.C.: The Survival of Civilizations.  A good sequel to the very good 1177 B.C.

Allison Pugh, The Last Human Job: The Work of Connecting in a Disconnected World accurately diagnosing networking as a skill that will rise significantly in value in a tech-laden world.

Dorian Bandy, Mozart The Performer: Variations on the Showman’s Art shows how Mozart, first and foremost, was a showman and that background shaped his subsequent output and career.

Emergent Ventures, 30th cohort

Mike Ferguson and Natasha Asmi, Bay Area and University of Michigan, growing blood vessels in the lab.

Klara Feenstra, London, to write a novel about the tensions between Catholicism and modern life.

Snigdha Roy, UCLA, for a conference trip and trip to India, math and computation and biology.

Nikol Savova, Oxford, and Sofia, Bulgaria, podcast on Continental philosophy, mathematics.

Seán O’Neill McPartlin, Dublin, policy studies and YIMBY interests.

Olivia Li, NYC, geo-engineering, undergraduate dropout.

Suraj M. Reddy, High school, Newark, Delaware, 3-D printing and earthquakes.

Zhengdong Wang, USA and London, DeepMind, to advance his skills in thinking and writing.

Andrés Acevedo, Medellin, podcast about Colombia.

Luke Farritor, University of Nebraska, deciphering ancient scrolls, travel grant.

Hudhayfa Nazoordeen, Sri Lanka and Waterloo, hydroponics for affordable food. 

Thomas Des Garets Geddes, London, Sinification, China newsletter.

Chang Che, book project on the return of state socialism in China, USA/Shanghai.

Alexander Yevchenko, Toronto, ag tech for farmers.

There are more winners to be listed, please do not worry if you didn’t fit into this cohort.  And here is a list of previous winners.

Sunday assorted links

1. Beauty induces higher stock market participation and thus higher returns.

2. “Afuera!”

3. Sri Lankan food is becoming more popular.

4. Those old service sector jobs.  Circa 1933, with Einstein.

5. The new Katherine Rundell book (UK only) is receiving rave reviews (Times of London).

6. New Knausgaard novel is coming.

7. Markets in everything, security breach division, dept. of uh-oh.

What have I been thinking about lately?

Robin Hanson asked me this question at lunch last week, and due to the general raucousness of the occasion I didn’t get a chance to answer.  So here is my list of recent questions:

1. How much did the British colonial welfare state for Ceylon in the 1930s help that country and its later social indicators?

1b. How much did it matter that Ceylon was a Crown colony and not part of the Raj?

2. Why has Thailand done considerably better than the other major Buddhist economies?

3. Why are there so few liberal or even technocratic voices in Sri Lanka politics?

3b. How is this consistent with Sri Lanka doing so well on so many social indicators?

4. Why does Qatar seem (at least to me) so much more aesthetic than Dubai?

5. What is the correct Straussian reading of all those 2017 Saudi (and other) demands made on Qatar?

6. To what extent will the developments of the next twenty years favor nations with a lot of scale?

7. Ecuador seems to be moving backwards on the political front, including violence, corruption, and electoral problems.  In the smallest number of dimensions possible, why exactly is this happening?

8. What is the equilibrium, given our current trajectory on drug policy and the rising number of drug-related and also opioid deaths?

9. When generative AI models become better and smarter, how many more people will be interested in incorporating them into their workflows?  Or will most of this happen through a complete turnover of companies and institutions, happening much more slowly over time?

10. Music delivery and distribution mechanisms have changed so many times?  But what exactly will or could succeed music streaming?  When it comes to the economics of music, have we reached “the end of history”?

11. What exactly does one learn that is special when traveling to places that are not at all on the cutting edge?

12. Which exactly are the political economy principles governing the allocation of green energy projects in the IRA?

There are more.