Nouriel Roubini lays out five different views. I think he overrates the degree of adherence to the specified "consensus" point of view, but the post makes for instructive reading. You’ve heard my opinion before. Yes the current situation is dangerous but we won’t gain from a revalued yuan until our fiscal house is in order, which I don’t expect anytime soon. And as for the "consensus," it is embodied in market prices, which suggest that nothing terrible will happen soon.