Go to www.tradesports.com, click under Current Events, this link helps. The contract is for whether bird flu is found in the U.S.; more useful would be a contract on whether human-to-human transmission becomes widespread and causes many deaths. Bird flu in U.S. birds, while terrible for Perdue Chicken, is not what most people care about. It is in this country, and Western Europe, that bird flu is least likely to mutate into a form deadly for humans. Right now the market is saying 15 to 18 percent that bird flu will be confirmed in the U.S. before year’s end.
Thanks to Ryan Peterson for the pointer.