Naive Macroeconomics 101

I do not worry much about particular levels of the current account, the dollar, or the measured savings rate per se.  I used to say "deficits do not much matter, and the level at which they would matter will never be reached in the United States."  I do not say this any more, but hey I’ve gotten used to that too.

I pin great hopes on the growth rate.  Furthermore I tend to think that the best forecast of next period’s growth rate is often this period’s growth rate.  That is why I am distressed by recent news of a 1.1 percent quarterly growth rate.  I do not see any way to put a positive or neutral spin on this.  Beware.

For further commentary, check out Macroblog and Brad DeLong.


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